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Why It Might Not Make Sense To Buy Mesabi Trust (NYSE:MSB) For Its Upcoming Dividend

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Simply Wall St
·4 min read
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Some investors rely on dividends for growing their wealth, and if you're one of those dividend sleuths, you might be intrigued to know that Mesabi Trust (NYSE:MSB) is about to go ex-dividend in just four days. If you purchase the stock on or after the 28th of January, you won't be eligible to receive this dividend, when it is paid on the 20th of February.

Mesabi Trust's next dividend payment will be US$0.46 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of US$1.43 to shareholders. Calculating the last year's worth of payments shows that Mesabi Trust has a trailing yield of 5.1% on the current share price of $27.94. If you buy this business for its dividend, you should have an idea of whether Mesabi Trust's dividend is reliable and sustainable. So we need to check whether the dividend payments are covered, and if earnings are growing.

See our latest analysis for Mesabi Trust

Dividends are usually paid out of company profits, so if a company pays out more than it earned then its dividend is usually at greater risk of being cut. Mesabi Trust distributed an unsustainably high 118% of its profit as dividends to shareholders last year. Without extenuating circumstances, we'd consider the dividend at risk of a cut. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. Over the past year it paid out 158% of its free cash flow as dividends, which is uncomfortably high. It's hard to consistently pay out more cash than you generate without either borrowing or using company cash, so we'd wonder how the company justifies this payout level.

As Mesabi Trust's dividend was not well covered by either earnings or cash flow, we would be concerned that this dividend could be at risk over the long term.

Click here to see how much of its profit Mesabi Trust paid out over the last 12 months.

historic-dividend
historic-dividend

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Businesses with shrinking earnings are tricky from a dividend perspective. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. Readers will understand then, why we're concerned to see Mesabi Trust's earnings per share have dropped 5.7% a year over the past five years. Such a sharp decline casts doubt on the future sustainability of the dividend.

The main way most investors will assess a company's dividend prospects is by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. Mesabi Trust has seen its dividend decline 5.4% per annum on average over the past 10 years, which is not great to see. While it's not great that earnings and dividends per share have fallen in recent years, we're encouraged by the fact that management has trimmed the dividend rather than risk over-committing the company in a risky attempt to maintain yields to shareholders.

The Bottom Line

Should investors buy Mesabi Trust for the upcoming dividend? It's looking like an unattractive opportunity, with its earnings per share declining, while, paying out an uncomfortably high percentage of both its profits (118%) and cash flow as dividends. Unless there are grounds to believe a turnaround is imminent, this is one of the least attractive dividend stocks under this analysis. It's not an attractive combination from a dividend perspective, and we're inclined to pass on this one for the time being.

With that in mind though, if the poor dividend characteristics of Mesabi Trust don't faze you, it's worth being mindful of the risks involved with this business. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 2 warning signs with Mesabi Trust and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

We wouldn't recommend just buying the first dividend stock you see, though. Here's a list of interesting dividend stocks with a greater than 2% yield and an upcoming dividend.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.