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Why Neurocrine (NBIX) Might be Well Poised for a Surge

Zacks Equity Research

Investors might want to bet on Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX), as earnings estimates for this company have been showing solid improvement lately. The stock has already gained solid short-term price momentum, and this trend might continue with its still improving earnings outlook.

The rising trend in estimate revisions, which is a result of growing analyst optimism on the earnings prospects of this biopharmaceutical company, should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. Our stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is principally built on this insight.

The five-grade Zacks Rank system, which ranges from a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record of outperformance, with Zacks #1 Ranked stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 2008.

For Neurocrine, there has been strong agreement among the covering analysts in raising earnings estimates, which has helped push consensus estimates considerably higher for the next quarter and full year.

The chart below shows the evolution of forward 12-month Zacks Consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Current-Quarter Estimate Revisions

For the current quarter, the company is expected to earn $0.42 per share, which is a change of -19.23% from the year-ago reported number.

Over the last 30 days, two estimates have moved higher for Neurocrine while one has gone lower. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased 13.9%.

Current-Year Estimate Revisions

For the full year, the earnings estimate of $0.04 per share represents a change of -81.82% from the year-ago number.

In terms of estimate revisions, the trend for the current year also appears quite encouraging for Neurocrine. Over the past month, two estimates have moved higher compared to one negative revision, helping the consensus estimate increase 36.56%.

Favorable Zacks Rank

The promising estimate revisions have helped Neurocrine earn a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The Zacks Rank is a tried-and-tested rating tool that helps investors effectively harness the power of earnings estimate revisions and make the right investment decision. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Our research shows that stocks with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) significantly outperform the S&P 500.

Bottom Line

While strong estimate revisions for Neurocrine have attracted decent investments and pushed the stock 14.5% higher over the past four weeks, further upside may still be left in the stock. So, you may consider adding it to your portfolio right away.


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