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Why Is Oshkosh (OSK) Up 8.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

Zacks Equity Research
·4 min read

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Oshkosh (OSK). Shares have added about 8.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Oshkosh due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Oshkosh's Q2 Earnings & Sales Top, Down Y/Y

Oshkosh Corporation recorded earnings of $1.25 per share in the second quarter of fiscal 2020 (Mar 31, 2020), surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18. This outperformance stemmed from stellar Defense segment revenues, which came in at $615 million, beating the consensus mark of $565 million. However, the bottom line declined from $1.82 per share recorded in the year-ago quarter.

Net income came in at $86.5 million, down from the year-ago quarter’s $128.5 million.

In the reported quarter, consolidated net sales declined 9.7% to $1,797 million. However, the figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,759 million.

In the fiscal second quarter, consolidated operating income slipped 23.9% year over to $133.6 million (7.4% of sales).

Segmental Details

In the reported quarter, net sales in the Access equipment decreased 29.8% year over year to $693 million. Operating income also plunged 40.9% to $70.8 million (10.2% of sales). This downside was primarily due to the impact of a lower sales volume and adverse absorption amid a planned slowdown in production due to the COVID-19 crisis.

The Defense segment’s net sales increased 26.4% to $615 million in the fiscal second quarter on higher sales resulting from the continued ramp up of JLTV sales to the U.S. government. Operating income climbed 11.5% to $58.2 million (9.5% of sales) on higher sales volume in the quarter.

Net sales in the Fire & Emergency segment dropped 9.7% to $255.6 million in the fiscal second quarter due to delayed deliveries as a result of the pandemic-related setbacks. The impact of lower sales volume, unfavorable product mix and production inefficiencies caused the operating income to plummet 44% to $20.5 million (8% of sales) during this period.

Net sales in the Commercial segment edged down 0.5% to $26.7 million in the fiscal second quarter, aided by a higher mix of package sales, which include third-party chassis. The segment’s operating income went up 3.8% to $8.1 million (3.4% of sales) in the quarter, mainly owing to the absence of the weather-related production disruptions experienced in the prior-year quarter.

Financial Details

Oshkosh, whose peers include Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN), General Dynamics Corporation (GD)    and Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), had cash and cash equivalents of $403.9 million as of Mar 31, 2020. The company’s long-term debt was $817.4 million, representing a long-term debt-to-capital ratio of 23.3%.

Oshkosh’s net cash provided by operating activities was $64.8 million as of Mar 31, 2020, compared with the $153 million reported at the end of the year-ago period.

Share Buyback & Dividend

During the March-end quarter, the company repurchased 421,984 shares of common stock for $31.4 million.

Oshkosh’s board has announced a quarterly cash dividend of 30 cents per share for its shareholders. The amount will be paid on May 29, to shareholders as of May 15, 2020.

Fiscal 2020 Outlook

Oshkosh scrapped its fiscal 2020 guidance as it anticipates that the impact of the pandemic will weigh on the company’s operations and results.

The company has reduced production levels and implemented a company-wide cost reduction plan that targets $80-$100 million in savings for the second half of fiscal 2020 in response to the uncertainties caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -49.79% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Oshkosh has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Oshkosh has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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