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Why Procter & Gamble (PG) is Poised to Beat on Q4 Earnings

Zacks Equity Research

The Procter & Gamble Company PG is set to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2019 results on Jul 30, before the opening bell.

The company boasts a robust earnings surprise history, having outpaced estimates for 16 straight quarters now. A glimpse of its earnings performance in the trailing four quarters showed that it delivered average positive surprise of 3.1%. Moreover, the company reported sales beat in six of the last seven quarters.

Procter & Gamble Company (The) Price and EPS Surprise


Procter & Gamble Company (The) Price and EPS Surprise

Procter & Gamble Company (The) price-eps-surprise | Procter & Gamble Company (The) Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its earnings in the quarter under review is pegged at $1.06, which suggests an improvement of 12.8% from the year-ago reported figure. Estimates for the quarter remained unchanged in the last 30 days. For total sales, the consensus mark stands at $16.9 billion, indicating a 2.2% increase from the year-ago quarter.

How Things Are Shaping Up for This Announcement

Procter & Gamble has been gaining from growth initiatives, including product improvement through innovation, packaging and marketing efforts. Management also remains focused on productivity and cost-saving plans, which should cushion margins. Its continued investment in business alongside efforts to offset macro cost headwinds, and balance top and bottom-line growth underscore productivity efforts. These efforts have not only aided results in the past quarters but also boosted stock performance.

Shares of the company have gained 3.8% in the past month, outperforming the industry’s growth of 21.7%. This indicates a positive sentiment on the stock ahead of earnings. Additionally, the stock has witnessed growth of 43.1% in the past year.


Meanwhile, the company focuses on improving the product portfolio through the strategy of acquiring complementary businesses. It also follows a systematic divestiture plan to streamline the portfolio. Some of the company’s recent acquisitions — including First Aid Beauty, the consumer health business of Merck KGaA and Walker & Company Brands — are likely to bolster the product portfolio. These acquisitions and divestitures are likely to aid top-line growth in the quarters ahead through a better focus on core businesses.

Additionally, management’s recently increased sales guidance for fiscal 2019 raises the scope for top-line gain in the fiscal fourth quarter. It now projects all-in sales growth of flat to up 1% for fiscal 2019 compared with the previously mentioned down 1% to up 1%. Organic sales for the fiscal year are now estimated to increase 4% compared with 2-4% stated earlier.

While the aforementioned factors raise optimism about the upcoming quarterly results, we remain wary of Procter & Gamble’s strained margins. Like most of its peers, higher commodity and shipment costs as well as increased cost of investments have been hurting margins. Adverse currency fluctuation is an additional headwind, which is likely to mar results in quarters ahead.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model conclusively shows that Procter & Gamble is likely to beat earnings estimates in the fiscal fourth quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — for this to happen. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Procter & Gamble currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.22%. The combination of the company’s favorable Zacks Rank and positive Earnings ESP makes earnings beat likely.

Other Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some other companies that you may want to consider as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. EL has an Earnings ESP of +7.80% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Inter Parfums, Inc. IPAR has an Earnings ESP of +12.25% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

e.l.f. Beauty Inc. ELF has an Earnings ESP of +29.41% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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