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Why you should stay tuned to the short, data-heavy week ahead

Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA

Why you should stay tuned to the short, data-heavy week ahead (Part 1 of 6)

Lots of economic data this week

This week has lots of important releases, primarily the jobs report and the ISM data. The stock and bond markets will close on Friday, July 4. The bond market will close early on Thursday as well. Expect a quick flurry of activity after the jobs report and then a sleeper, as most of Wall Street will be away by noon.

Economic data this week

Monday, June 30

  • ISM Milwaukee
  • Chicago Purchasing Manager
  • Pending home sales
  • Dallas Fed

Tuesday, July 1

  • Markit Manufacturing PMI
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • ISM Prices Paid
  • Construction spending
  • IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Wednesday, July 2

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • Challenger Job Cuts
  • ADP Employment Change
  • ISM New York
  • Factory orders

Thursday, July 3

  • Initial jobless claims
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
  • Trade balance
  • Non-farm payrolls
  • Average hourly earnings
  • Average weekly hours
  • Unemployment rate
  • Labor force participation rate
  • Markit Services PMI
  • Markit Composite PMI
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing

Friday, July 4

  • Markets closed

Earnings reports this week

  • No real estate–related earnings

Impact on mortgage REITs

Mortgage REITs like American Capital Agency (AGNC) and Annaly (NLY) will focus on data that will move the bond market. For them, the focus will be on the jobs report, which is driving the Fed’s decision-making process. Inflation has remained low, but we probably won’t see much inflation until wages start increasing. REITs will focus on average hourly earnings.

Impact on homebuilders

Builders have a lot to to focus on this week, with the jobs report, the ISM data, and the Markit PMI data. Pending home sales will give them a bit of insight on the housing market’s general strength.

Impact on commercial REITs

The most important data for commercial REITs will be the economic optimism data. This affects mall REITs like Simon Property (SPG) and General Growth Properties (GGP). Office REITs like Brookfield Office Properties (BPO) and Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) will also focus on the ISM PMI data, especially the services index.

Continue to Part 2

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