Vesuvius plc (LON:VSVS) shareholders, and potential investors, need to understand how much cash the business makes from its core operational activities, as well as how much is invested back into the business. After investment, what’s left over is what belongs to you, the investor. This also determines how much the stock is worth. Today we will examine VSVS’s ability to generate cash flows, as well as the level of capital expenditure it is expected to incur over the next couple of years, which will result in how much money goes to you.
Is Vesuvius generating enough cash?
Vesuvius generates cash through its day-to-day business, which needs to be reinvested into the company in order for it to continue operating. What remains after this expenditure, is known as its free cash flow, or FCF, for short.
I will be analysing Vesuvius’s FCF by looking at its FCF yield and its operating cash flow growth. The yield will tell us whether the stock is generating enough cash to compensate for the risk investors take on by holding a single stock, which I will compare to the market index. The growth will proxy for sustainability levels of this cash generation.
Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flows – Net Capital Expenditure
Free Cash Flow Yield = Free Cash Flow / Enterprise Value
where Enterprise Value = Market Capitalisation + Net Debt
Although, Vesuvius generate sufficient cash from its operational activities, its FCF yield of 7.64% is roughly in-line with the broader market’s high single-digit yield. This means investors are being compensated at the same level as they would be if they just held the well-diversified market index.
What’s the cash flow outlook for Vesuvius?
Does VSVS’s future look brighter in terms of its ability to generate higher operating cash flows? This can be estimated by examining the trend of the company’s operating cash flow moving forward. In the next few years, the company is expected to grow its cash from operations at a double-digit rate of 41%, ramping up from its current levels of UK£142m to UK£200m in three years’ time. Although this seems impressive, breaking down into year-on-year growth rates, VSVS’s operating cash flow growth is expected to decline from a rate of 15% in the upcoming year, to 11% by the end of the third year. But the overall future outlook seems buoyant if VSVS can maintain its levels of capital expenditure as well.
High operating cash flow growth is a positive indication for Vesuvius’s future, which means it may be able to sustain the current cash yield. However, if you factor in the higher risk of holding just Vesuvius compared to the well-diversified market index, the stock doesn’t seem as appealing. Keep in mind that cash is only one aspect of investment analysis and there are other important fundamentals to assess. I recommend you continue to research Vesuvius to get a more holistic view of the company by looking at:
- Valuation: What is VSVS worth today? Is the stock undervalued, even when its growth outlook is factored into its intrinsic value? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether VSVS is currently mispriced by the market.
- Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on Vesuvius’s board and the CEO’s back ground.
- Other High-Performing Stocks: If you believe you should cushion your portfolio with something less risky, scroll through our free list of these great stocks here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at email@example.com.