Why We're Not Concerned About Alphabet Inc.'s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Share Price
Alphabet Inc.'s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.9x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 14x and even P/E's below 8x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Alphabet could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
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Does Growth Match The High P/E?
Alphabet's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 3.2% decrease to the company's bottom line. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 120% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 11% each year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 9.3% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's understandable that Alphabet's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Final Word
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that Alphabet maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Alphabet with six simple checks on some of these key factors.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a P/E below 20x.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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