WillScot Corporation (WSC) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript
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WillScot Corporation (NASDAQ: WSC)
Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call
March 15, 2019, 10:00 a.m. ET
Contents:
Prepared Remarks
Questions and Answers
Call Participants
Prepared Remarks:
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the WillScot Fourth Quarter 2018 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference may be recorded.
I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Matt Jacobsen, Vice President of Finance. Sir, please begin.
Matt Jacobsen -- Vice President of Finance
Thank you and good morning. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you we will discuss forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including those discussed in our press release and the risk factors identified in our Form 10-K filed with the SEC later today. While we may update forward-looking statements in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, all of which speak only as of today.
We'd like to remind you that some of the statements and responses to your questions in this conference call may include forward-looking statements. As such, they're subject to future events and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements. WillScot assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. The press release we issued last night and the presentation for today's call are posted on the Investor Relations section of our website. A copy of the release has also been included in an 8-K that we submitted to the SEC. We will make a replay of this conference call available via webcast on the Company website.
For financial information that has been expressed on a non-GAAP basis, we've included reconciliations to the comparable GAAP information. Please refer to the tables in the slide presentation accompanying today's earnings release. Lastly, this morning, we're filing our 10-K with the SEC for the 2018 fiscal year. The 10-K will be available through the SEC or on the Investor Relations section of our website.
Now, with me today, I have Brad Soultz, our President and CEO; and Tim Boswell, our CFO. Brad will kick off today's call with a brief overview of WillScot's strategy, summarize our fourth quarter and full-year results, and provide an update on our progress related to integration activities, among other things. Tim will then provide additional detail on the financial results for the quarter and for the full-year 2018, and discuss what we're seeing for 2019 before we open up the call for questions.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Brad.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Matt. And welcome everyone to WillScot's fourth quarter and full-year 2018 conference call. First, turn to Slide 3. I'd like to provide a brief overview of the Company given that we have new investors and analysts joining us today. As a specialty rental service market leader, our mission is to provide innovative modular space and portable storage solutions. We focus on providing these solutions ready to work, so that our customers can forget about the space, focus on what they do best, working their project, being productive and meeting their goals.
We now provide these solutions to more than 50,000 customers with a fleet of over 150,000 units, which represent over 75 million square feet of temporary space through an unparalleled branch network of over 120 locations across the US, Canada, and Mexico. When we deliver an immediately functional space, productivity is all our customers see. This value proposition is unique in the industry. Our customers, including those new to us through recent acquisitions, are embracing it and it's driving our growth.
If you'll turn to slide four, our strategy has been to accelerate our already strong organic growth with accretive M&A. Just over a year ago, we committed to doubling the Company without overpaying or over-leveraging. I'm pleased to report that we've delivered on that commitment as evident in our fourth quarter 2018 revenue and adjusted EBITDA, which were up 114% and 104%, respectively, year-over-year.
In summary, we delivered on our commitments last year and we expect to continue to do the same into the future. We delivered $216 million of adjusted EBITDA in the full year 2018, which is slightly above the midpoint of our increased 2018 guidance, which we issued in October of 2018 and reaffirmed in January.
Looking forward, we believe we have a simple recipe to deliver the $345 million to $365 million of adjusted EBITDA organically in 2019, all the while delevering the business. Importantly, we believe this outlook is largely within management's control due to the substantial cost synergies and organic earnings growth potential embedded in this portfolio.
I'd like to now point out five attributes underpinning this unique and fast growing specialty rental services platform. First, we have significant revenue visibility, given the trajectory at which we exited 2018, the 30-month average lease durations and the embedded growth from pricing and VAPS initiatives.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, our average monthly modular rental rates in our US segment were 12.6% up on a year-over-year basis. This result is the same as the preliminary result included in our January Investor Update Call. This represents the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit rate growth and we expect this momentum to continue as we look ahead.
On the Ready to Work side, this value proposition continues to increase in penetration. If we simply continue to deliver new units at the current level of VAPS penetration, we will realize a greater than $140 million revenue opportunity over the next three years as units which are currently on rent return are reequipped and redeployed. This represents a $15 million increase over the preliminary results communicated in our January Investor Update Call. Our VAPS penetration levels are continuing to increase toward our longer-term stated goals, which we believe could provide additional upside over this time horizon. We'll share additional context on this important new development a bit later in the call.
Second, the ModSpace system integration is complete. We've now fully transitioned to realization of the $70 million of cost synergies attributed to the prior acquisitions. I remind, 80% of these cost synergies are expected to be included in our fourth quarter 2019 run rate and we expect 90% of the associated costs to realize these synergies to be expensed in the first half of 2019 with the related cash payments completed by Q4.
Third, we have an accelerating adjusted EBITDA growth and margin expansion. We expect to achieve an adjusted EBITDA run rate of approximately $400 million with EBITDA margins expanding to 35% as we exit 2019.
Fourth, we have substantial cash flow generation due to the discretionary nature of our capital expenditures. At the midpoint of our 2019 guidance, we expect free cash flow to be $140 million before growth CapEx and one-time costs associated with realizing these cost synergies. As previously noticed -- noted, we expect 90% of these cash payments to be completed by Q4 of 2019. Assuming we achieve our objective of $400 million adjusted EBITDA run rate, our discretionary free cash flow generation will be approaching $200 million annualized rate as we exit 2019.
And fifth, our net income and free cash flow generation in the second half of 2019 accelerates our deleveraging into 2020. These accelerating earnings and the inherent cash flow characteristics of our platform provide confidence that by the second quarter of 2020 we expect to be at or below the 4X net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA, which is in line with our target net leverage range of 3 times to 4 times.
In summary, we remain committed to our goal of creating long-term shareholder value and are extremely excited about our future. We're confident in this outlook and believe achieving a run rate of $400 million adjusted EBITDA exiting 2019 is well within management's control, all while delevering the business.
Now, if I turn to slide five, there is no other Company that has the scope, scale, turnkey capability and service commitment to deliver like we do. For the combined business on a proforma basis, our 2018 revenues were just over $1 billion and our adjusted EBITDA would have been $285 million. This is inclusive of our three acquisitions, Acton, Tyson and ModSpace, as if we own them for the entire period. Approximately 90% of our revenues are generated in the US, serving a very diverse group of end markets, and over 90% of our adjusted gross profit is derived from our recurring leasing business.
Beyond our substantial scale advantage, there are three key attributes that really differentiate William Scotsman. First, Ready to Work, we've repositioned the business strategically with this unique value proposition through the expansion of our offering of value-added products and services, or VAPS. Our customers value it and is driving our growth with highly accretive returns.
Second, we have a differentiated and scalable operating platform. Over the past several years, we've invested in our people, processes and technology and created a highly scalable and differentiated operating platform capable of asserting market leadership. This operating platform includes sophisticated price management, capital allocation characteristics. We have leveraged this platform to swiftly and efficiently integrate acquired companies.
Third, we have very attractive unit economics, which provide a high degree of visibility into future performance. You'll recall, over 90% of our adjusted gross profit is derived from our recurring leasing business, which is underpinned by long-lived assets, typically 20-plus years, coupled with average lease durations of 30 months.
Now, I'll direct you to slide six. In a little over one year, we've doubled the size of the Company by leveraging the unique WillScot operating platform to further accelerate the already strong organic growth with highly accretive M&A. As depicted in the boxes above the arrow, our EBITDA has continued to accelerate since late November of last year when we recapitalized the Company and returned to the public markets.
The full-year 2018 adjusted EBITDA of $216 million is up 74% on a year-over-year basis and is just above the midpoint of our revised 2018 guidance issued last October. Our fourth quarter 2018 revenues of $257 million and adjusted EBITDA of $74 million, which are up 114% and 104%, respectively, year-over-year, better reflect the underlying business as this was the first full quarter that we own ModSpace.
During the same period across the bottom, we joined the Russell 2000, all while making and integrating three acquisitions. Our execution of the ModSpace commercial, operational and systems integration on budget and earlier than schedule enables us to begin to realize the $70 million of annualized cost synergies and over $140 million of annualized VAPS-related revenue growth potential.
As a part of this journey, we've combined forces with three outstanding peer companies and hundreds of talented people that are committed to bring our customers an expanded fleet of Ready to Work solutions. Tremendous effort has gone into safely and efficiently integrating these companies, and I'm extremely proud of the team and their accomplishments.
Now as we turn to slide seven, I'd like to highlight the 2019 adjusted EBITDA guidance that we reaffirmed via press release last night. While Tim will take you through the full 2019 financial guidance in more detail, I'd like to highlight our adjusted EBITDA expectations. We have a very simple recipe to deliver the $345 million to $365 million adjusted EBITDA organically in 2019, while delevering the business. First, ingredient one is already in place, given we've completed the ModSpace systems integration. The second ingredient is to deliver the $70 million of associated cost synergies. And third ingredient (ph) is to harmonize and further optimize rate, utilization and VAPS.
We are excited about the full year 2019 outlook and in particular the resulting adjusted EBITDA run rate of approximately $400 million, with EBITDA margins of 35%, generating substantial discretionary free cash flow as we exit 2019. Importantly, we believe this outlook is largely within our control. We delivered on our commitments last year and we expect to do the same going forward.
Turning to slide eight, I'd like to just expand upon the aforementioned cost synergies related to the acquisitions. With the ModSpace system integration complete, we've transitioned to cost synergy realization. These integrations required no changes to the WillScot operating platform, consistent with prior acquisitions and a further testament to the scalability of the platform.
There are over $70 million of annualized cost synergies associated with the acquisitions, over 80% of these cost synergies are expected to be included in our fourth quarter run rate, as mentioned before, the balance executed in 2020, and approximately 60% of these cost synergies are related to redundant headcount with a balance split between branch, real estate consolidation, and other non-people related SG&A. It's a simple equation to deliver $70 million of annualized cost synergies. In order to realize these cost synergies, we expect an additional $15 million to $20 million of integration and restructuring costs to be expensed. We anticipate more than 90% of these costs will be expensed in the first half of 2019 with the respective cash payments disbursed by the end of 2019.
We've made significant progress now evaluating the collective owned real estate portfolio, which now totals $87 million of net book value. $29 million of which is associated with 19 surplus properties, which are now either listed for sale or soon will be. The remaining $58 million of net book value is associated with owned properties, which we are continuing to utilize. Based upon this progress, we remain confident in our ability to realize $30 million of proceeds from selling surplus real estate throughout 2019 and 2020 with potential upside as we evaluate financing alternatives for the $58 million net book value associated with the owned properties we expect to continue to utilize on a go-forward basis.
I would also note that there are other potential cost and fleet synergies, which are not yet quantified or otherwise included in the initial $70 million. A few examples of these incremental opportunities yet to be evaluated include brand scale efficiency, logistics optimization, sourcing and procurement, and further fleet optimization.
Now, as we turn to slide nine, in addition to the $70 million of cost synergies, there is $140 million of annualized revenue growth opportunity achievable over the next three years attributed to that. Focusing on the top left side of bar charts, I'm delighted to confirm that we achieved an average rate of $250 of VAPS value per month across all office units delivered in 2018. This rate is up 26% over the LTM levels achieved the prior year and up 7% from the LTM levels the prior sequential quarter.
I'm particularly pleased with this result as the period includes deliveries to many new customers of the acquired customers. You may recall, we began offering this solution to acting customers in the second quarter and the ModSpace customers early in the fourth quarter of 2018. Our VAPS penetration levels are continuing to increase toward our long-term stated goals, and as noted before, we believe this can provide additional upside over this time horizon.
Now, the math behind the $140 million of annualized revenue growth is simple. It's simply $123, which is the difference between the $250 of the average for the units delivered last year and $127, which is the average value for all units currently on rent, times 12 months, times approximately 95.5000 units, which are on rent, which equals $141 million. Many of these units on rent were delivered by acquired companies, which did not offer a Ready to Work solution. Timing of the realization of this opportunity is simply paced by the time it takes for the units, which are currently on long-term leases to return from their current lease and be reequipped and redeployed.
Increasing VAPS penetration will remain a key focus of the business. Aside from M&A, the expansion of the Ready to Work value proposition represents the fastest growing aspect of our business with returns of greater than 40% unlevered IRRs. This value proposition provides a turnkey solution to our customers, affording them the ability to focus on immediately getting on with their work. We expect demand for this value proposition to continue to increase over the next several years, as we both expand our offering and increase penetration to legacy customers, as well as new customers of the acquired businesses.
Turning to slide 10, I'd like to provide a snapshot of the key US leasing KPIs realized in the fourth quarter of 2018, since they are the primary foundation for the run rate with which we entered 2019. I'll first note that this slide is consistent with the preliminary data we shared during the January update call. I'm also representing the results on a pro forma basis as this best reflects the underlying trajectory of the business. First, on the top left chart, Modular Space AMR of $563 was up 12.6% year-over-year in the Q4, representing the fifth consecutive quarter of solid double-digit rate increases. The increase is driven both by expanding VAPS penetration and WillScot price optimization tools.
In the left middle chart, US Modular Space utilization was up 290 basis points year-over-year to 75.3%, given our continued focus on rate optimization, VAPS expansion and capital allocation as we rebalanced the acquired idle fleet. And in the lower left chart, US Modular Space units on rent were down a modest 1% in the fourth quarter as the Company began executing major integration and fleet rebalancing activities across the branch network.
As previously mentioned, we expect unit on rent to remain down on a year-over-year basis through the first half of 2019, transitioning to a 1% year-over-year growth by the end of 2019. Our primary focus throughout the integration and the subsequent periods of optimization was and remains, first, the safety of our colleagues; second, rate harmonization and optimization; third, VAPS penetration and; fourth, asset utilization. As we look forward to 2019, we continue to see sustained double-digit year-over-year revenue growth on average rental rate as we drive pricing and value-added products across the combined portfolio.
Before turning it over to Tim, I'd ask you to turn your attention to slide 11 in order to expand a bit upon our diverse end markets and our robust demand outlook. First, I'd like to direct you to the pie chart in the bottom left of the slide, which depicts the further disaggregation of our customer profile. Our customer database is highly fragmented with no individual customer representing more than 3% of our 2018 revenue and the top 50 customers representing less than 15% of the revenues. Previously, we had presented this customer data aggregated into six end market groups. We've now further disaggregated the construction, which are the dark green slices, and the commercial and industrial groups, which are the black slices, in order to highlight the significant diversification underlying the portfolio. This data includes the WillScot legacy customers by SIC code, as well as those that have joined us through the recent acquisitions.
A few highlights at the end market level are; first, while construction and commercial and industrial end-markets collectively represent about 80% of our revenues, they're actually comprised of 11 discrete end-markets, providing for an overall very diverse end market mix. Second, no end market represents more than 17% of our revenues. Non-residential general contractors, which is its largest group, is actually quite diverse in itself as these customers' construction projects are typically serving one of our other discrete end markets. And finally, energy and natural resource end markets represent only 8% of our revenue and has remained stable over the last several quarters.
The majority of the revenues from the customers in this end market segment are associated with mid and downstream energy, mining and other major utilities, which will continue to remain stable as they have for several years. Less than half of these revenues are associated with upstream oil and gas. These upstream markets bottomed several quarters ago, following the late 2014 decline in oil prices. Our 2019 outlook simply assumes these upstream markets remained stable, although in the medium to longer-term an increase in oil prices would potentially be a catalyst for increased demand.
Overall, our demand outlook remains quite positive, as we continue to see strength across the diverse end markets. I'd also like to highlight a few relevant external forecasts and indicators. First, the American Rental Association is forecasting a 5% annual revenue growth through 2020; second, the AIA consensus forecast is generally aligned with 3% to 5% growth over the same period. The ABI, which is Architecture Billing Index, which has been a great leading indicator for non-risk construction activity looking forward nine months to 18 months was a strong 55.3% in January and has been positive for over 24 months. Non-res construction starts on a square foot basis continues to remain supportive with current levels just near long-term average. And finally, US and Canada 2019 GDP forecasts offer growth above 2%.
While largely not included in our outlook, we would expect any substantial US infrastructure spending bills once approved and implemented to further underpin and strengthen many of our diverse end markets. Based upon this demand outlook, we expect our net CapEx growth related investments to be in the range of $30 million to $60 million in 2019. These investments are highly discretionary and assume continued end market strength and VAPS growth as we're currently expecting.
We will be diligent in maintaining our flexible capital strategy investing to support growth as markets allow and balancing growth with long-term returns. As a reminder, one of the key strengths of our business model is the discretion at which we have over capital spending in the short-term coupled with over 30-month average lease duration and long-lived assets, which together allows us to reduce capital spending and drive free cash flow to the extent markets don't support growth. We have a disciplined quarterly process through which we control, reassess and allocate our capital.
With that, I'll hand it over to Tim who will provide additional context.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Brad. Please turn to slide 13. Q4 was an historic period for our Company, marking the first full quarter of financial results delivered by the combined WillScot and ModSpace organizations. While we did not realize any material cost synergies related to ModSpace in Q4, you can begin to see the organic growth and operating leverage in the combined business, which we expect will continue to build each quarter in 2019.
In the top charts, we show our year-over-year revenue and EBITDA growth, as they are reported in our financial statements. Revenues were up 113.6% and adjusted EBITDA was up 103.6% versus prior year. Obviously in Q4 2017, we did not own Tyson or ModSpace, and we only owned Acton for the last 11 days of the quarter. So the bulk of the growth is coming from the full contribution of those acquisitions in Q4 2018. And the net result was $73.5 million of adjusted EBITDA, which as Brad said, is slightly above the midpoint of the Q4 range, implied by the annual guidance that we increased in October incorporating ModSpace.
While straightforward, the top charts reinforce two important points; first, we've more than doubled the size of the business in the last 12 months and are entering 2019 on a substantially higher earnings trajectory after seamlessly executing three acquisitions. Secondly, the operating leverage is not immediately obvious, because prior to any cost synergy realization, both Acton and ModSpace, initially were dilutive to margins with contributions to adjusted EBITDA of less than 25%. Margins actually declined 140 basis points on an as reported basis from 30% in Q4 2017 to 28.6% in Q4 2018 due to this dilution from ModSpace relative to where our legacy WillScot business was operating. I'll talk about this a bit more when we go into the US segment results.
The bottom charts look at revenue and adjusted EBITDA on a pro forma basis, and they paint a clearer picture of what's going on. First, overall pro forma revenue growth of 3% appears modest, but masks a significant and intentional shift in revenue mix away from equipment sales to reoccurring leasing revenues in our US segment. Modular leasing revenues are up 18% year-over-year on a pro forma basis, more than offsetting an 18% decline in equipment sales. And sales represented only 11% of total revenue in Q4, with the remainder coming from our leasing operations. This resulted in a $7 million net increase in revenue, a $5.3 million increase in adjusted EBITDA and 140 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion on a proforma basis. Again, that's with no material cost savings yet coming out of ModSpace. This pro forma view is quite helpful because it demonstrates both the net impact of the revenue mix shift, as well as the operating leverage that we expect will become more pronounced as we operate the fully integrated business.
Continuing that point on slide 14, we expect that this mix shift toward higher quality leasing revenue to continue and our organic adjusted EBITDA growth to accelerate in 2019. At the midpoint of our guidance ranges, we expect total revenues will be up 3.3%, with leasing revenues offsetting a $30 million to $50 million decline in sale revenue, and adjusted EBITDA will increase 24.6% on a pro forma basis at the midpoint.
You'll recall that ModSpace executed a hurricane relief project in Q3 2018, which generated $30 million of revenue, so that accounts for the majority of the expected decline in pro forma sale revenues in 2019. And if I adjust for that, the pro forma revenue growth exceeds exceed 6% and adjusted EBITDA would be up over 28% organically, again, at the midpoints.
I'll again highlight the substantial margin expansion we expect to deliver in 2019 and carry into 2020. While Acton and ModSpace were dilutive to EBITDA margins initially relative to our legacy WillScot business, those deals give us the scale that allows us to expand margins rapidly beyond what any of the companies could have achieved independently. We expect adjusted EBITDA margins to expand over 500 basis points in 2019 on a proforma basis at the midpoint of our ranges, and our target margin of approximately 35% in Q4 2019 would be up approximately 640 basis points versus our Q4 2018 results.
Relative to the Q4 starting point of 28.6%, again that's our adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter, I'd expect some modest expansion quarter-to-quarter in Q1 as cost synergies offset, what is typically a softer seasonal quarter from a margin standpoint, and then over 100 basis points of expansion, each quarter thereafter with the larger quarter-to-quarter and year-over-year increases coming in Q3 and Q4.
As we said on our January call, as we execute this plan, our financial profile shifts significantly, with consistent net income generation, accelerating free cash flow generation and adjusted EBITDA run rate of approximately $400 million and margins of 35% heading into 2020. Sitting here in March with another eventful quarter behind us, our original plan since the announcement of the ModSpace transaction nine months ago are on track.
On slide 15, we have our usual reconciliation of net loss to adjusted EBITDA. While we believe adjusted EBITDA is the best indicator of our operating performance, we remain bottom-line focused and expect to improve that bottom-line steadily throughout 2019.
While net loss did improve by over $96 million in 2018 versus prior year, it was obviously a transitional year, to say the least, with over $86 million of transaction, integration and restructuring costs incurred related to our acquisition and refinancing activity. That said, as Brad mentioned, those costs are largely behind us with only $15 million to $20 million of integration and restructuring charges remaining related to ModSpace. And if we look at the right-hand column of the reconciliation, it's easy to bridge how the business will transition to consistent net profitability after isolating the $30 million of transaction-related items in Q4 and prior to the realization of any ModSpace cost synergies or future growth.
On slide 16, Brad already highlighted the fundamental leasing KPIs in the US segment. In the top left chart, our US office fleet on rent increased 129% versus prior year to over 86,000 units, primarily due to acquisitions. The right-hand chart show our results on a pro forma basis, as if we had owned Acton, Tyson and ModSpace in 2017. In the top right, utilization is up 290 basis points year-over-year, while average units on rent were basically flat organically through the course of 2018 and down 1% year-over-year in Q4 as we entered January.
In the bottom right, as we've highlighted for some time, average rental rates inclusive of value-added products were up 12.6% in Q4, representing our fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year increases in the US segment. As significant as those increases have been, we believe that we have multiple levers at our disposal that will allow us to continue this rate growth trend through 2019, while we rationalize our fleet and branch network.
Slide 17 goes into a bit more detail on the US segment revenue and adjusted EBITDA performance, which is frankly driving the trends that I already discussed at the consolidated level. In the top left chart, you see Q4 revenue growth was up 4.4% versus prior year on a pro forma basis, so growing faster organically than the overall consolidated results. And in the bottom left chart, you see adjusted EBITDA on an as reported basis ramping due to our acquisitions, organic growth and synergy realization related to Acton.
I'll note, you see two consecutive quarters of margin contraction from Q2 to Q3 to Q4. That is entirely expected and due to the inclusion of ModSpace, whose revenues contributed approximately 24% to our adjusted EBITDA. As I said earlier, we expect that trend will reverse in 2019 and head to 35% by Q4 2019 as we execute our plans. Those that were with us last year, will recall the exact same phenomenon in Q1 of 2018, which you can see in the bottom left chart, when margins dipped in the first full quarter after the Acton acquisition and then rebounded in Q2 before the inclusion of ModSpace revenue in Q3 and Q4. So all you're seeing in Q4 is the revenue weighted average margin of two recently combined businesses prior to synergy realization. Now, with the integration complete, we expect those margins will climb to 35% by Q4 2019.
Moving to slide 18, we'll look at our other North America segment, which includes operations in Canada, Alaska and Mexico. We are again showing pro forma metrics for this segment, denoted by the white boxes, since ModSpace roughly doubled our presence in Canada. As we talked about last quarter, the other North America segment bottomed in 2018 on a pro forma basis due to the long runoff of upstream oil and gas projects, primarily in Alberta and Alaska, resulting from our three-year average lease durations and some specific ModSpace projects that completed in the first half of 2018.
Average rental rates in the top right chart have essentially been range bound on a pro forma basis for three years and average units on rent in the bottom right chart have been flat for four consecutive quarters, with utilization up 80 basis points year-over-year. So we believe these markets have found their supply/demand equilibrium and we are seeing modest improvements in Canada, Alaska and Mexico as we head into 2019.
Slide 19 reiterates our expectations for free cash flow in 2019 and is useful to illustrate how those sources and uses of cash change as we head into 2020, with an adjusted EBITDA run rate of approximately $400 million. In 2019, with our current debt structure and maintenance CapEx requirements, we see $130 million to $150 million of free cash flow prior to growth investments, that's in the green bar in the middle of the page, and that number pushes toward $200 million based on the expected 2020 run rate.
Based on current market conditions, new order activity and tremendous traction on value-added products, we expect to invest at least $30 million of the discretionary growth CapEx on value-added products and we'll evaluate the remaining growth investments as we get deeper into Q2.
As we shared in January, we expect the integration and restructuring costs to be front-loaded in 2019, such that we are cash generative in the second half of the year, with an accelerating run rate heading into 2020. This is all consistent with what we discussed in January, although we have the benefit of our final Q4 results and two additional months of performance here in 2019.
Moving to slide 20, these are the December 31st debt balances that we provided to you in January. We remain very comfortable with the flexibility we have to manage the debt structure, particularly in light of the cash flow dynamics I just discussed. Approximately 70% of the debt structure is fixed rate after taking into account the interest rate swap we put in place in November. So we see limited interest rate exposure with some clear opportunities to reduce our weighted average cost of debt, which is currently approximately 6.6%. We have no debt maturities prior to 2022, yet we do have flexibility to repay debt at every level in the debt structure. So we have good optionality around how we delever the business in time.
We drew approximately $23 million on the ABL in the quarter to fund $42 million of net CapEx, as well as cash restructuring interest costs and we had $533 million of liquidity in the ABL revolver as of December 31st, and we'll report 4.6 times leverage to our bank group in Q4 based on the definitions in our credit agreement. Our target leverage range remains 3 times to 4 times. As we said in January, we expect to achieve the high end of that range organically by Q2 2020, assuming current market conditions and a full capital expenditure plan. And this is perfectly comfortable given the visibility we have into the earnings growth in the business and the speed with which we can adjust capital spending if we so choose to accelerate the deleveraging. The combination of 30-month average lease durations underpinning our lease revenue and a 90-day capital planning cycle create this flexibility in managing our discretionary free cash flow.
We have some new material for you on slide 21. Our business model has always been very efficient from a cash tax standpoint and you will see approximately $2.6 million of cash taxes paid in 2018 in our 10-K. Aside from that, we reported $38.6 million GAAP tax benefit, which is non-cash, and approximately $20.7 million of that was due to our final adjustments related to the 2017 Tax Act. There is a detailed reconciliation of our effective tax rate in the 10-K. However, barring any changes in tax policy or major transaction activity, we expect our effective tax rate to be in the 24% to 27% range for GAAP purposes.
In June 2018 when we announced the ModSpace transaction, we noted approximately $50 million of net present value from expected tax benefits. I'm pleased to report that we've completed our initial Section 382 analysis and we have $936 million of gross US federal NOLs as of December 31, 2018. In addition, we have gross deferred tax assets of $557 million related to the Section 163(j) interest deductions and $50 million from prior capital losses with which we can shield future taxable income and gains in the US. These assets offer valuable optionality and we expect will shield any meaningful US federal income taxes for approximately five years to seven years. The cash taxes that you see in our cash flow statement are largely state and local in nature, and we've been in a net refund position in Canada in recent years.
My last comment on this page before turning it back to Brad, the pace and complexity of transaction activity over that past 18 months has been quite high, and you'll recall we had identified a material internal control weakness in 2017, specifically related to accounting for income taxes in the context of reverse acquisitions.
Those transactions don't happen every day. And while we did take on some additional complex transactions in 2018, I'm pleased to affirm that we had no such weaknesses or deficiencies in 2018. This is a testament to some relentless efforts behind the scenes by our team, a belt and suspenders remediation plan that we executed throughout the year, as well as our preparation for large accelerated filer status in 2019. These are critical milestones as we build the best-in-class specialty rental services platform in North America.
With that, I'll hand it back to Brad on slide 23 for his closing comments and Q&A.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Tim. In closing, we delivered on our commitments last year and we expect to do the same into the future. We have a simple three-ingredient recipe to deliver the $345 million to $365 million adjusted EBITDA organically in 2019, while deleveraging this business. Ingredient one is already in place given we've completed the ModSpace integration; ingredient two is to deliver the $70 million associated cost synergies, and ingredient three is to harmonize and further optimize rate utilization in VAPS.
We're extremely proud of all that we accomplished in 2018, which provides the foundation for a great future. We are very confident in our 2019 outlook and in achieving the resulting adjusted EBITDA run rate of approximately $400 million, with EBITDA margins expanding to 35%, all while being generating substantial discretionary free cash flow as we exit 2019.
These accelerating earnings and the inherent cash flow characteristics of our platform provide confidence that by the second quarter of 2020 we expect to be at or below the 4x net debt to EBITDA level in line with our target levels. We appreciate now that you've taken the time to join us today and for your interest in our company. We look forward to speaking with many of you very soon.
That concludes our prepared remarks and we now would be happy to take your questions. Operator, please open the line.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Manav Patnaik of Barclays. Your line is open.
Manav Patnaik -- Barclays -- Analyst
Hi. Good morning, guys. I guess, we've been through a lot of the financial stuff. And so, the main question I had for you guys was just around the macro update. So, you had one deck where you had those, I guess, the AIA consensus forecast. And I guess, it shows it's almost halving in 2020. And so, I guess, I was just wondering how do you plan today -- if you do follow this forecast? How do you plan today for the slowdowns and all the different moving pieces? If you could just maybe help us understand that better would be helpful.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
You can start with maybe the current macro outlook...
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
...and I can talk about our response plan.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So, first of all, the macro level, this is Brad. Our outlook remains quite robust. I mean, if we look at our quoting activity, which we monitor on a weekly basis, which is a great indication of inquiries combined with these external forecast, all are supportive of continued growth. I think, just as a reminder, I referenced our quarterly capital allocation process, whereby we look at this demand on a frequent basis and adjust capital accordingly. And I'll ask Tim to expand a bit up on that.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Manav, I think, when I think about this, I use kind of slide 19, the free cash flow bridge as a...
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
...framework, with which to think about this. And sitting here today, as we think about the outlook for 2019, it's hard to see a macro event kind of disrupting the run rate and the trajectory that the business is on. So, we're kind of looking a bit further into the future. As Brad said, the ABI being a great indicator of nine months to 12 months out of future non-res construction starts on a square footage, which in turn correspond to our delivery volumes. We don't see an immediate red flag from a volume perspective barring the disruption that we've incurred related to the integrations.
So, looking into 2020, what's the plan? As we monitor all of our leading indicators, quoting activity on the ground, being the primary indicator, Brad mentioned, you'll recall we're on a quarterly capital planning cycle and you can see where the capital investments in the business are going in 2019. And that's probably not a bad guidepost to use for 2016 and going forward.
So, I think, in any macro environment, Manav, we continue to invest in the value-added products and services program. We believe that opportunity is really just based on the penetration of our assets, not on macro factors. So I'd expect we continue to fund that growth irrespective of market environment, and that will, frankly, insulate a part of the business, along with our three-year lease durations from any change in macro conditions. That gives you a lot of time then to respond with other fleet investments. So you can quite easily pull back on the additional $30 million of growth investments in the fleet and a substantial portion of, what we call, the maintenance CapEx...
Manav Patnaik -- Barclays -- Analyst
Yeah.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
...can be reduced as well in a declining volume environment. We define maintenance CapEx as the investment level required in a volume neutral market environment. So if markets support growth, like we think they will in 2019, we'd invest above that level. And if markets are contracting, we can cut that CapEx and dramatically increase the free cash flow coming out of the business. This is a unique dynamic that's fairly unique to our business model and gets us very comfortable with both the capital structure and the outlook.
Manav Patnaik -- Barclays -- Analyst
Got it. And just a quick follow-up and then I'll hop off. It's -- internally do you see any leading indicators or is it just more of the macro stuff that we all end up seeing that causes you to start acting differently?
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
No. I think, it's -- there -- obviously there has been some disruptions in the capital and equity markets, and kind of so global concerns. But as far as demand at the end market level, it remains robust. I mean, as Tim mentioned, it's our job to watch it like a hawk, and we do, if we see things softening. If we were to see that, we swiftly pull back capital and shift the platform such that we're increasing the free cash flow.
But circling back to your point, I'm not seeing anything now that cause me concern in the end-markets. We have worked through substantial fleet rebalancing and branch consolidation. And as I noted before, our priority is keep folks safe and drive rates, right, and increase utilization. And as volume opportunities are presented, we're very selective about the ones we take.
Manav Patnaik -- Barclays -- Analyst
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Kevin McVeigh of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Kevin Damien McVeigh -- Credit Suisse AG -- Analyst
Great. Thanks. Hey. Just help us understand what gave you the confidence to boost the VAPS? I think it was around $125 million, you're going up to $140 million, and is there any way to think about what the acceptance rate embedded in that $140 million is?
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. The difference, if you'll remember, Kevin, last time we published that was a quarter ago.
Kevin Damien McVeigh -- Credit Suisse AG -- Analyst
Yeah.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
That LTM rate was, I want to say, $234 million from memory, right. So it's simply continued increased penetration that we realized through the fourth quarter. When we put our preliminary results out right, we were still consolidating two -- ModSpace and WillScot systems, so we were maybe a little more cautious there. But if you can tell, I'm quite bullish on this. I'm extremely proud of the fact that we expanded that LTM delivered rate through three acquisitions. So, I think that's great testament not only to platform but the team that's driving it.
Kevin Damien McVeigh -- Credit Suisse AG -- Analyst
Great. And then, Tim, just -- if you wanted to kind of buy that four turns leverage kind of Q2 2020, what could you get it to if you kind of drive it to -- in a tougher scenario if you wanted to buy by the end of 2020 likely, not even macro, just you would have kind of focused more on deleveraging as opposed to anything else? Where do you think you get that leverage to?
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. There are too many potential scenarios to give you a specific target, Kevin. So, suffice to say, could be lower, and I would use the capital spending in the business as the primary lever that we would pull between now and Q2 of 2020 to influence that number level -- lower. Like I said, in response to the previous question, I don't see as much risk around the run rate from an EBITDA standpoint, just based on the lease durations in the portfolio, so CapEx would be the primary variable and by sensitizing CapEx, you could sensitize leverage in Q2 of 2020.
Kevin Damien McVeigh -- Credit Suisse AG -- Analyst
Got it. And then, just quickly, is there any kind of meaningful difference in the average lease cap -- lease duration for ModSpace versus WillScot in the core business?
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. It did pull us down slightly. I'd say, some of this is how we measure our data. So I don't think there is a fundamental difference in the two portfolios. We reported a 30-month average lease duration most recently. In a year ago, we would have been talking about 35-month average lease duration across portfolio. We see no real change in terms of, if you compare like-for-like contracts, or transactions rather, in terms of the ultimate lease durations. So, we'll keep an eye on it as the portfolios harmonize.
If you recall, the biggest difference between the ModSpace fleet and the WillScot fleet is that ModSpace had a slightly higher mix of complexes. These are the buildings that we coupled together to make larger square footage installations and those are actually tend to have longer lease durations than the smaller single wide units, for example, that we acquired from Acton.
Kevin Damien McVeigh -- Credit Suisse AG -- Analyst
Got it. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Sean Wondrack of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Sean Wondrack -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst
Hey, guys, and congratulations on completing the integration.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Thanks.
Sean Wondrack -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst
So, just touching on a couple of things in the end markets, it's great to hear the robust outlook. There are couple of things that I've sort of heard. I had a Company reduced guidance this morning based on weather that sort of impacted construction. Also we had the government shutdown. Can you comment on both of them and has that really impacted your business? Or is there anything else sort of holding you back and that you can think about in Q1?
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I would say, there has been a bit of weather anomaly this year. It's not something that concerns me, because five years in the business it's not unusual. I would say, it's been more broad spread throughout both Canada and the US. And as mentioned, I mean, what it typically means is maybe a delay in a month or two of project starting. Our inquiries or quotes remain very robust, frankly, above our targets for the combined portfolio. So, yeah, it is factual, I think, there has been a bit of impact on new activations associated with that, but I think we're talking about weeks and months here, not something that gives me concern.
We left the first -- we left the fourth quarter down a modest 1%. If you think about that fourth quarter, maybe half to two-thirds of it was pretty significantly impacted by these ModSpace branch consolidation and reallocation. If you remember that started in November and then that activity kind of continued heavily into the first quarter. So, I think, as commented before, we expect to be down unit on rent through the first half and then slowly bringing that back to up a modest 1% at the end of the year.
Sean Wondrack -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst
Great.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
It's also safe to say we're reiterating our guidance today, so whatever softness you see on the volume side, we see opportunity on pricing in value-added products.
Sean Wondrack -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst
Great. Fair enough. And with government being roughly 3% of your overall demand, did you see any impact from the shutdown? And then you also mentioned some of these discrete end market opportunities. Obviously the immigration issue has been a very politically charged issue, but if you can kind of comment on what you're seeing through boots on the ground there would be helpful.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. We didn't really see anything on the government side at all, good or bad, I guess, if you will. And these kind of discrete end-market opportunities. First, I'd characterize this is a very broad portfolio across Mexico, US, and Canada. So at any one time, there is usually one or two of those going on somewhere, right? And typically as those events occur, we'll see a surge in demand, and certainly, a surge in sustained pricing. One of the more recent national issues, the wildfires in California, I think, the infrastructure plans are just finalized that that business has just been awarded for the rebuild and we expect to experience some benefits of that. But then just again keep in mind that's one little small piece of a very broad portfolio here, so kind of ebbs and flows over time, if you will.
Sean Wondrack -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst
Great. I'll ask one more and I'll get back in queue. Just -- regarding your current capital structure, you outlined your goals, you've been basically hitting all of the goals that you've outlined. Some of your debt is shorter term. Do you foresee there being sort of a global refi in the next few years as you move on to the next stage of your growth?
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Look, we'll undertake all that opportunistically. Sean, it's hard to sit here today and say, yes, we're absolutely going to refi everything. So, what I like about the debt structure specifically is, in the meantime setting aside any global refinancing, you've got a handful of tactical things you could do, flexibility to pay down at every tranche in the debt structure. And given our free cash profile is shifting dramatically in the second half of this year and heading into 2020, I think, we'll definitely start with those tactical opportunities and be opportunistic as it relates to everything else.
Sean Wondrack -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst
Okay. Great. Thank you. I'll turn it over.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ashish Sabadra with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Ashish Sabadra -- Deutsche Bank AG -- Analyst
Hey, Brad. Thanks for providing all the details. A quick question about the VAPS monthly rate of $250 million, sorry, $250 on an LTM basis. Can you -- do you provide what the penetration rate for VAPS was there? And maybe any color on what the average VAPS monthly rate is right now ongoing?
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So, we do not provide specific penetration guidance. I think, the $250 is, if you think about dollars per unit, it's the best reflection of penetration. We have characterized that that $200 to $250 level represents about a 40% furniture penetration. Meaning, of 100 units we shipped in the period, 40 were fully equipped with furniture and 60 weren't, and that increase in penetration over time is what's really driving that increase in value. We've stated that our internal target is to drive that penetration to 80% over the next several years, and as noted, I'm pretty encouraged about the progress through these acquisitions and the early adoption of the new customers.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
Ashish, this is Tim.
Ashish Sabadra -- Deutsche Bank AG -- Analyst
Okay. That's great. Yeah.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
In response to the second part of your question, which is the overall average, if you look at slide nine, in the top left chart, our delivered rate on contracts in the last 12 months is $250 of recurring monthly revenue per unit per month, and the overall portfolio average is the $127 that you see next to it. So what's interesting here is, the $127 is actually down slightly.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
And that is due to the dilution from Acton and ModSpace, because they do not have as robust of a value-added products program. So you actually have the overall portfolio average that has contracted slightly due to the acquisition dilution, we've continued to push the delivered rates. Therefore, the spread between delivered rates and the overall portfolio widened, resulting in the higher revenue potential number that Brad articulated.
Ashish Sabadra -- Deutsche Bank AG -- Analyst
That's extremely helpful. And my -- yeah. So, I guess, as you continue to improve penetration, what I was wondering was that there could be potential upside to even that $250 number on the monthly run rate as the penetration continues to improve. But maybe my next question was around margins, Tim, and you laid out the 35% margins in the fourth quarter of 2019. As we think about going forward, there are still opportunities like for further cost synergies, as well as the pricing and VAPS, those are higher margin businesses. So the right way to think about it is that further upside to that 35% margins in the out-years?
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
We believe there is opportunity on the cost synergy slide that Brad talked about in the bottom left hand corner. There is a list of very logical projects that we are undertaking that could certainly contribute to future margin expansion. If we rewind a year-and-a-half ago when we were first marketing Williams Scotsman to the spec, we did present an EBITDA margin bridge that went up to 38%...
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
...based on -- it was illustrative, but, yes, we have, from the outset of this journey, had line of sight to higher margins.
Ashish Sabadra -- Deutsche Bank AG -- Analyst
That's great. Congrats once again on solid results.
Operator
Thank you. And our next question comes from Phil Ng of Jefferies. Your line is open.
Phil Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst
Hey, guys. You've seen really strong momentum on AMR. Do you expect that double-digit run rate to be sustainable in 2019, just based on the updated VAPS opportunity alone, it kind of implies about mid single-digit lift annually? So just curious how you're thinking about for like-for-like pricing and any other mix dynamics we should be appreciative of?
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. That's exactly what we expect. It's consistent with the January update we gave. And you're right, value-added products will continue to be driving at least half of that year-over-year improvement.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
As you think about what other levers we have to manage pricing, just on the modules themselves, we -- obviously we've got the upfront rental rates, which have been supportive. You'll recall that an average contract that we signed last for about 11 months but ends up staying on rent 30 months on average, so you've got flexibility to manage rates during that intervening period. And we've been rolling out the price optimization platform across the combined volume of the WillScot, Acton and ModSpace portfolio. So you've got really four different levers right now that we're managing in order to drive absolute rate improvement.
Phil Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst
Got it. That's really helpful. And just on that note, how has the new sales force from ModSpace transitioned away from maybe how they approached pricing or rate optimization and then the upselling piece for VAPS? Have you kind of provided any new training for the new sales force, and has that resonated well? I'm just curious, this new customer base that you have via acquired assets have -- has VAPS resident in a similar fashion for them as well?
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Phil. This is Brad. I'd say, that was a pleasant find once we were under the hood with ModSpace. So, first of all, well, there were redundant or overlapping sales rep between William Scotsman and ModSpace. We obviously focused on the best talent, and generally it was about a 50-50 selection.
The ModSpace team had begun to implement the same rate optimization tools that Scotsman was deploying and had begun to offer furniture through a third-party lease release. So, I would say, it was already well within their behaviors and their mindset. We did have an all sales and operations joint session back in October of last year, where we really focused everyone on the William Scotsman operating platform and then significant training on our tools and processes, and we continue to follow that. So, long and short of it is, they've been great adopters and adapters. They've already started on that journey. I'm very pleased with the progress and I'm sure that's contributing to the increase in VAPS that we spoke about earlier.
Phil Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst
Got it. And just one last one for me. Tim, appreciated you provided some of that color on the free cash flow run rate exiting 2020 of $200 million, obviously the -- which is a nice acceleration. The other piece I just want to make sure if you could help us frame-up is just the discretionary spend associated with that, whether it's CapEx, and what's left on the restructuring front we should be mindful of? Thanks.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. So on the free cash flow bridge, the assumptions I'm making that get to a $200 million, this is directional discretionary free cash flow number, some improvement on our overall cost of debt combined with the $400 million EBITDA run rate. And then the CapEx assumption for 2020, sitting here today, I'd say, use the 2019 guidance as directional guidance for the foreseeable future in this market environment. So, does that answer your question, Phil?
Phil Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst
With the discretionary piece, was there anything that we need to be mindful of, because you gave maintenance CapEx, and I guess, the growth CapEx piece. I guess we could kind of flush out whatever you guided for 2019. Is there anything else that we should be thoughtful of in terms of like restructuring spend that -- in the discretionary (ph) .
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
No. As you get into 2020, we expect that all the restructuring costs on a cash basis to be incurred in this view. You do -- if you just think about our cash flow statement, you have the gross profit associated with our rental unit sales. So just make sure you're capturing that piece, if you're starting with EBITDA as the starting point for your bridge, but other than that, no, we expect the integration restructuring to have been completed from a cash standpoint barring any other transaction activity.
Phil Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst
Okay. All right. So that's a pretty solid number. That's really nice acceleration. Appreciate the color. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Scott Schneeberger of Oppenheimer. Your line is open.
Scott Schneeberger -- Oppenheimer -- Analyst
Thanks. Good morning and congratulations, guys, on executing very well in 2018. First question for me. Could you please discuss the drivers of the 12.6% rental rate growth in the fourth quarter in terms of core rate repricing acquired assets, and perhaps, growth? And then, Tim, how might you think about the composition going forward? Thanks.
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Scott. We talked about this a little bit in January in rough numbers, approximately 60% of the percentage growth in Q4 was coming from the base rates and the remainder was coming from the value-added products opportunity. And like, I think, roughly 50-50 mix as you go through 2019 is a reasonable assumption and we are managing those a bit independently. So if one take it the way, the other may give it a bit.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah.
Scott Schneeberger -- Oppenheimer -- Analyst
Understand. Thanks. And then just -- could you discuss the expected cadence of adjusted EBITDA over the quarters of 2019, and perhaps, elaborate on some seasonal dynamics? It was touched upon earlier. But obviously you have a bit of a sporadic history with acquisitions latent in there. So, just a little bit of thought of the cadence this year would be great help? Thanks.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I mean, my comments earlier were around the pace of the margin expansion. Obviously, we haven't been giving quarterly guidance, but appreciate that there has been a fair amount of change in the portfolio. So it's a good question. As you go from Q4 and what we're at 28.6% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q4, I'd expect some modest expansion going into Q1, which in prior years would be a little unusual, usually Q1 is a bit lower from a margin perspective. So what we have going on is that usual seasonal weakness from a margin standpoint as your variable costs start to ramp up heading into Q2. But it's offset by cost synergy realization that will be generated from really all of the Acton synergies, as well as the beginning of the ModSpace synergies. Then that margin percentage expansion should expand by, as I said, about 100 basis points quarter-to-quarter, with the larger improvements happening in Q3 and Q4.
So, those margin percentages, and we saw this in Q4, Scott, for example, can be impacted pretty significantly by sale volume. So that's probably the primary variable that can change things quarter-to-quarter. But when you look at the kind of the core underlying leasing gross margin, which is where we have the bulk of our management time and attention is focused, that doesn't surprise us as much.
Scott Schneeberger -- Oppenheimer -- Analyst
All right. Thanks. Yeah. I appreciate that, Tim. Very helpful. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. And our next question comes from Sean Wondrack of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Sean Wondrack -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst
Hey, guys. Just one more quick one from me. Could you comment on the M&A environment, if you're seeing any other opportunities there and kind of what you're seeing there, please?
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
I mean, we obviously can't comment about specifics, but I think I characterized on the last call with the ModSpace integration behind us, we have the capability and the capacity to make further acquisitions. We've also consistently said we're not going to over pay and we're not going to over lever. So, coming back to our primary focus right now that the ModSpace system integrations are complete is harvest the $70 million in cost synergies, drive this VAPS growth potential and delever the platform back into the 4X range. So, we've got the capability and capacity to do it. We're not compelled to do it and we're not going to over pay and we're not going to increase leverage.
Sean Wondrack -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Brad Soultz for closing comments.
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Hi. Thanks everyone for joining the call. I think, as we said before, we're really proud of 2018 accomplishments beyond the financials as well and extremely excited about the future for this pretty unique and fast growing specialty rental platform. So, thanks, everyone. Have a great day.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. You may disconnect. Everyone have a wonderful day.
Duration: 69 minutes
Call participants:
Matt Jacobsen -- Vice President of Finance
Bradley Soultz -- Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boswell -- Chief Financial Officer
Manav Patnaik -- Barclays -- Analyst
Kevin Damien McVeigh -- Credit Suisse AG -- Analyst
Sean Wondrack -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst
Ashish Sabadra -- Deutsche Bank AG -- Analyst
Phil Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst
Scott Schneeberger -- Oppenheimer -- Analyst
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