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Winnebago (WGO) Up 1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Winnebago Industries (WGO). Shares have added about 1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Winnebago due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Winnebago Puts Up a Stellar Show in Q3

Winnebago reported third-quarter fiscal 2021 (ended May 29, 2021) adjusted earnings per share of $2.16, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.76 and turning around from the year-ago loss of 26 cents. This outperformance can be attributed to higher-than-anticipated revenues across both Towable and Motorhome segments.

This recreational vehicle maker reported revenues of $960.7 million for the quarter under review, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $852 million. Moreover, the top line skyrocketed 138.6% year over year.

Segmental Performance

Revenues in the Towable segment for the reported quarter surged 194.2% year over year to $555.7 million, primarily on solid consumer demand for Grand Design and Winnebago branded products. The reported figure also topped the consensus mark of $410 million. Quarterly adjusted EBITDA jumped 387.1% year on year to $80.1 million, courtesy of favorable pricing and operational discipline. The metric also beat the consensus mark of $61 million. Moreover, backlog in the segment amounted to 46,646 units (or $1,522.1 million), up a whopping 264.9% year over year.

For the reported quarter, revenues in the Motorhome segment improved 89.2% year over year to $385.3 million, thanks to strong demand for Newmar and Winnebago branded products. The revenue figure also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $356 million. The segment recorded an EBITDA of $37.5 million, turning around from the year-ago loss of $10.8 million. Also, the segment’s backlog was 18,145 units (or $2,180.1 million), skyrocketing 323.3% year on year, highlighting surging consumer demand during the reported quarter.

Financials and Dividend

Winnebago had cash and cash equivalents of $405.8 million as of May 29, 2021, up from $292.6 million on Aug 29, 2020. Long-term debt (excluding current maturities) totaled $524.4 million, slightly up from $512.6 million recorded on Aug 29, 2020. The firm announced a quarterly cash dividend of 12 cents per share payable on Jun 30, 2021 to shareholders of record as of Jun 16, 2021.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 5.3% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Winnebago has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Winnebago has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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