Wintrust Financial's (NASDAQ:WTFC) one-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth
If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. To wit, the Wintrust Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:WTFC) share price is 91% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 37% (not including dividends) in the same period. If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! However, the longer term returns haven't been so impressive, with the stock up just 16% in the last three years.
While the stock has fallen 3.6% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.
View our latest analysis for Wintrust Financial
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Wintrust Financial was able to grow EPS by 70% in the last twelve months. The share price gain of 91% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it a year ago.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Wintrust Financial has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Wintrust Financial will grow revenue in the future.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Wintrust Financial, it has a TSR of 95% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Wintrust Financial has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 95% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 13%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Wintrust Financial is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
But note: Wintrust Financial may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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