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XPEV Is Worth Far More Than Its Present Price

Mark R. Hake
·4 min read

XPeng (NYSE:XPEV), the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker is up 100% in the last two months but it’s down 29% in the last month. That is due to the fact that XPEV stock peaked recently on Nov. 23 at $72.17. However, I believe XPEV stock is worth at least 100% more at $82 per share.

Xpeng logo and P7 model in store XPEV stock
Xpeng logo and P7 model in store XPEV stock

Source: Andy Feng / Shutterstock.com

I wrote about this valuation earlier this month in my article on XPEV stock. I wrote that XPeng should be able to grow on a non-linear basis, just like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Nio (NYSE:NIO) have in China. XPeng will be able to grow on an exponential basis. This will mean building further plants and raising more capital if need be.

At the time, I suggested that the company would have no problem raising further capital to ramp up its production.

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Moreover, since then, on Dec. 11, the company raised another $2.5 billion in a follow-up secondary offering. This will allow XPeng to enter into higher production of both its EV sedan and SUV.

What XPeng Is Worth

Last time I compared XPeng’s valuation to Nio’s. I assumed that XPeng would reach $4 billion in revenue by the end of 2022.

But think about this. Nio is forecast to make revenue of $4.6 billion in 2021. This is close to the $4 billion XPeng revenue forecast in two years. But Nio now has a market capitalization of $68.9 billion. That is a little over twice the XPeng market cap of $29.8 billion today.

In other words, if XPeng is going to follow Nio’s market cap pathway, its price will likely more than double within two years. This means that XPEV stock could be more than $82 within two years, or double its price of $41.55 on Dec. 29, 2020.

Barron’s Has Doubts About Chinese EVs

However, not everyone on Wall Street agrees that this is going to happen. For example, Barron’s recently wrote that investors should stay away from Chinese EV stocks Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI). The author, Al Root, believes they won’t have the same amazing performance as Tesla stock. He wrote that it is time to “unplug” from Chinese EV stocks.

His argument is that all three stocks are overvalued and won’t have profits for several years. Second, he feels that the U.S. Congress’s passage of a law requiring U.S. audits on Chinese stock will hurt Chinese EVs.

Third, he argues that once novel coronavirus vaccines become prevalent, the market’s obsession with Chinese EV stocks will ease. Lastly, he argues that the heavy subsidies in China for EV adoption could eventually wane.

The problem with these arguments is that they don’t address the growth drivers for Chinese EVs over the next decade. The simple fact is that China will be the largest market for electric vehicles for the foreseeable future.

Moreover, Chinese EV stocks have the same inherent catalysts that Tesla has in China and face the same demand/supply issues.

Therefore, I believe that my analysis of XPeng’s valuation stands.

What to Do With XPEV Stock

I am not the only analyst who believes XPEV stock is worth more than today. For example, TipRanks.com reports that the average price target of 9 Wall Street analysts is $41.75. That represents a potential gain of just 0.4% for the stock. However, the high price target for that group is $59, or 41% above the Dec. 29 price.

Moreover, Marketbeat.com reports that there are seven analysts whose average price target is $54.43 per share. That average price target is 31% above the price for XPEV stock.

Therefore, the consensus seems to be that there is more to go with XPEV stock. This is despite what risks some journalists feel exist for Chinese EV stocks. My estimate is that it is worth at least 100% more and some analysts on the Street believe it is worth 31% more.

On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake has a long position in Tesla (TSLA) stock.

Mark Hake runs the Total Yield Value Guide which you can review here.

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