Technology has come to both drive and dominate our lives, with growth accelerating exponentially as tech begets tech. Growth needs capital and that’s where we investors come in. It’s a truism that’s been proven with social media companies like Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and Snapchat (NYSE:SNAP), and before that Google — later Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) — and before that all the way back to Fairchild Semiconductor.
Now we have tech companies popping up around the world to take share in their respective regions. Yandex (NASDAQ:YNDX) is one them. Described as the “Google of Russia,” it has its fingers not just into search but other sectors like information technology, e-commerce and mobile search. That last one is exciting to me because that is where Google dominates, too. A big chunk of the tech that dominates our daily routine is in all of the time spent searching.
So the fundamental piece of Yandex’s future is almost certain just from trends and demand in search, and for now, it’s doing well. The same, though, can’t be said for Yandex stock, which has lost 16.6% in the last 12 months after hitting all-time highs. By comparison, the Nasdaq Composite index is up 1.5% in the same period.
Upside Potential Outweighs Risks
However, looking at the YNDX stock price since the December market crash offers some solace. That same Nasdaq gauge is up 14.5% since Christmas while the Yandex stock price almost doubled that gain, increasing 29.5%. The December crash test solidified a prior pivot level as solid support that the bulls have sure footing. They can use it to claw back their way into the highs.
So long term, those who want exposure to non-US search and technology companies can bet on YNDX right here and now. From a valuation perspective, the downside seems smaller than the upside potential.
Wall Street experts agree, as almost all of them rate YNDX stock as a buy or strong buy. And the shares as still trading below their average price range, indicating there is still more upside to go.
Several YNDX Trading Scenarios
Those who are somewhat concerned about the mid term are more sensitive to entry timing. For that the short term charts provide a road map. Yes, there are opportunity lines to cross but the stock is now facing a major prior failure point from October. To make matters worse, this was also the ledge from August prior.
All this is to say that from these levels, YNDX stock could see one of several scenarios. From a momentum perspective, I’d rather see the stock break through the resistance level before I chase it higher. The idea here is to get confirmation that it won’t fail this time. I am prepared to miss out on a few upside ticks. But I can buy it high and sell it higher.
One can argue that the trigger happened yesterday when it closed pennies below $36 per share. But given that Oct. 18 it fell 30% in two days from exactly this level, I can be patient here. These are momentum stocks and clearly they move too fast and can cause major harm. The problem is that while they don’t leave easy entry points, I want to make sure I am clear of danger before allocating risk to it.
So in summary, Yandex seems to be executing on plans and is still operating in the right areas of global interest. So its long-term future is rosy. Yet, oddly enough, YNDX stock is cheap. From the traditional sense, it sells at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14 which is rare. Usually such stocks carry a high P/E, making them a value gamble at any point in time. Betting on it long term is not likely to be a major debacle. So it comes down to individual time frame and risk tolerance.
Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him as @racernic on Twitter and Stocktwits.
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