New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said Tuesday that he expects the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates higher this year and to keep them elevated at those levels until inflation slows down.
Speaking at a virtual event hosted by The Wall Street Journal, Williams stressed that policymakers remain focused on bringing inflation closer to the Fed's 2% goal and will need to push the interbank lending rate higher in order to do so.
"We need to have somewhat restrictive policy to slow demand and we’re not there yet," he said, adding: "This is not something we’re going to do for a very short period and then change course."
His comments echoed those made by Chairman Jerome Powell in a keynote speech last week at the Kansas Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In his message, Powell reiterated a pledge to "forcefully" fight inflation that is still running near the hottest pace in 40 years.
"While higher interest rates, slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses," Powell said. "These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain."
Even with four consecutive interest rate hikes, including two back-to-back 75-basis-point increases, Powell stressed that the Fed is not in a place to "stop or pause" — an unwelcome sign for investors who were predicting a rate cut next year.
The current benchmark federal funds range of 2.25% to 2.50% is around the "neutral" level, meaning that it neither supports nor restricts economic activity. But the Fed chief, along with Williams, signaled that a restrictive stance will almost certainly be necessary as the central bank tries to pump the brakes on the economy.
Although inflation moderated slightly in July — the Fed's preferred gauge to track price growth fell 0.1% on a monthly basis — Powell said that it is not enough to determine that policymakers' tightening mission has been successful.
"We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%," he said, suggesting that "restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy."