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Yum China (YUMC) Down 9.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Yum China Holdings (YUMC). Shares have lost about 9.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Yum China due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Yum China Q1 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Fall Y/Y

Yum China Holdings reported first-quarter 2020 results, wherein earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 164% and 53.2%, respectively. The bottom line surpassed the consensus estimate for the 10th straight quarter, whereas revenues topped expectations for the second straight quarter.

Adjusted earnings of 16 cents compared favorably with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 25 cents. However, the reported figure declined 72.9% from the year-ago quarter. Excluding the impact of its investment in Meituan Dianping in 2020 and 2019, earnings declined 68% year over year.

Detailed Revenue Discussion

The company’s total revenues of $1,754 million beat the consensus mark of $1,145 million in the first quarter of 2020. However, the metric deteriorated 23.9% year over year. Excluding foreign currency translation, the top line fell 21% on a year-over-year basis.

Total system sales in the reported quarter declined 20% (excluding foreign currency translation) from the year-ago period owing to system sales fall of 15% at KFC and 38% at Pizza Hut. Also, same-store sales declined 15% year over year, primarily owing to a fall of 11% at KFC and 31% at Pizza Hut.

Operating Highlights

In the first quarter, total costs and expenses contracted 17.2% year over year to $1,657 million, compared with $2,001 million in the year-ago quarter. This improvement was backed by a 13.2% decline in general and administrative expenses, 22.4% drop in food and paper costs, 15.5% decline in payroll and employee-benefit costs along with an 18.8% drop in company restaurant expenses.

Restaurant margin in the quarter under review was 10.7%, reflecting a 780-basis point drop from the year-ago period. The decline was primarily led by dismal same-store performance, temporary store closures due to coronavirus along with wage and commodity inflation. However, this was partially offset by the relief provided by landlords and government agencies.

Adjusted operating profit totaled $98 million, down 67.7% from the year-ago quarter. Adjusted net income declined to $63 million from $230 million in the prior-year period.

Balance Sheet

Cash and cash equivalents as of Mar 31, 2020, summed $1,048 million compared with $1,046 million as on Dec 31, 2019. Inventories in the first quarter were $317 million compared with $380 million at 2019-end.

During the first quarter, Yum China repurchased approximately 0.16 million shares of common stock for $7.1 million. It also returned $52 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

Unit Development and Other Details

In the first quarter, Yum China opened 179 new restaurants and remodeled 31. The company’s delivery contributed 35% to sales in the first quarter, up 16 percentage points from the prior-year period.

Digital orders in the first quarter accounted for 84% of sales at KFC (up 29 percentage points year over year) and 65% of sales in Pizza Hut (36).

As of Mar 31, 2020, both KFC and Pizza Hut loyalty programs constituted more than 250 million members. In the first quarter, KFC member sales accounted for nearly 62% of KFC's system sales, while Pizza Hut member sales contributed approximately 44% to Pizza Hut's system sales.

2020 Outlook

Yum China expects the store count in the range of 800-850 in 2020. Capital expenditure is projected between $500 million and $550 million.

The company has been undertaking numerous measures to protect employees, customers and business partners during the pandemic. However it has stated that coronavirus is expected to have a material adverse impact on its operating and financial results for 2020.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision. The consensus estimate has shifted 104.76% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Yum China has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Yum China has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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