For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – April 17, 2013 – Director of Research Sheraz Mian says we should be in a better position to evaluate this earnings season by the end of this week.
Q1 Earnings Season Ramps Up
It is still early going for the 2013 Q1 earnings season, with results from only 34 S&P 500 members thus far. No clear trends have emerged yet, but we will have seen results from 1/5th of the index’s total membership by the end of this week and should be in a better position to evaluate this earnings season.
Total earnings for these 34 companies are up +16% from the same period last year, with 64.7% of them beating earnings expectations. Total revenues for these companies are up +5.5% and 41.2% of them have come out with positive top-line surprises. This is better than pre-season expectations, but is weaker than what these same companies reported in the preceding quarter.
Earnings at the three universal banks – J.P. Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) - came in better than expected Growth. But they were less than ‘pure’ given the outsized contributions from reserve releases, particularly at J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo. The deceleration in the mortgage business, continued net interest margins pressures and weak loan demand provide a less than inspiring read through for the rest of the banking group. On the positive side, momentum in the capital markets business bodes well for investment banks, particularly Goldman Sachs (GS). Total Finance sector earnings in Q1 after including the results from the three universal banks are now for growth of +0.8%, which is an improvement from where expectations stood last week.
Total earnings for the S&P 500 as a whole are expected to down -1.8% from the same period last year, reflecting -0.6% decline in revenues and modest contraction in margins. The mediocre growth picture is a reflection of tough comparisons and underwhelming management guidance – the first quarter of 2012 remains the high point of total quarterly earnings since the current earnings cycle got underway in 2009.
But lack of growth in the first quarter is not much of a concern for the market, as investors are looking ahead to period of robust growth later in the year, particularly in the back half of 2013 and all of 2014. The expectation is that the +0.9% earnings growth in the first half of 2013 will be followed by double-digit earnings growth in the second half of the year and into next year. Driving these optimistic growth expectations are strong revenue gains and further expansion in margins which are already in record territory.
Revenue growth is a function of economic growth. And while GDP growth has been fairly erratic in recent quarters, the expectation is for a sustained period of growth starting in the second half of the year. Hard to tell how reasonable the revenue growth expectations are since they are so closely tied to the uncertain economic backdrop.
But margins are a different story. Expecting margins to continue expanding after they have crossed the prior cyclical peak does not seem reasonable or plausible.
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Contact: Sheraz Mian
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