Demand from all corners of the globe for the safety and security of U.S. Treasury debt has acted to keep a lid on long-term interest rates, even as the Federal Reserve has raised short-term rates aggressively over the past two-plus years and inflation has remained stubbornly high. Total public debt owed by the U.S. federal government was $34 trillion at the end of 4Q23, according to the DOT. Outside of U.S. investors, the two largest holders of U.S. public debt are Japan, which owns 3.4% of the debt, and China, which owns 2.3%. The other nations among the top 10 holders have 8% of the debt, so the top 10 holders collectively own about 14%. The grand total of U.S. debt owned by foreign holders is $8.0 trillion, or about 24% of the total. This absolute holdings level has increased 200 basis points over the past six months. Japan has been a leader here, as the nation's holdings have increased by 6%, or $55 billion in the past six months. China, meanwhile, has been selling, in part for political reasons. China's current Treasury holdings are lower by about $65 billion over the past year. Over in Europe, countries such as England, France, and Luxembourg have been buyers. We think this type of global demand for U.S. Treasuries should help keep a lid on long-term rates in 2024-2025.

Biogen is a biotech company that develops, manufactures, and sells therapies for treating neurological and neurodegenerative diseases. The company is the market leader in multiple sclerosis drugs and launched the first approved treatments for spinal muscular atrophy and Alzheimer's disease. The company also sells products that treat plaque psoriasis, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, lymphocytic leukemia, and rheumatoid arthritis. Current research continues on multiple sclerosis and has expanded to include neuro-immunology, ophthalmology, lupus, and other neuromuscular and movement disorders. Founded in 1978, the company is located in Cambridge, Massachusetts, employs 7,570 people, and is a component of the S&P 500.

Biogen and Idec merged in 2003, combining forces to market Biogen's multiple sclerosis drug Avonex and Idec's cancer drug Rituxan. Today, Rituxan and next-generation antibody Gazyva are marketed via a collaboration with Roche. Biogen also markets novel multiple sclerosis drugs Plegridy, Tysabri, Tecfidera, and Vumerity. In Japan, Biogen's MS portfolio is copromoted by Eisai. Hemophilia therapies Eloctate and Alprolix (partnered with Sobi) were spun off as part of Bioverativ in 2017. Biogen's newer products include Spinraza (SMA, with partner Ionis), Leqembi (Alzheimers, with partner Eisai), Skyclarys (Friedreich's Ataxia, Reata), Zurzuvae (post-partum depression, Sage), and Qalsody (ALS, Ionis). Biogen has several drug candidates in phase 3 trials in neurology-related fields.

With many of the elite stocks technically overbought after huge moves in late 2023 and early 2024, we've done a search for stocks that might provide some 'alpha' if the red-hot AI stocks finally take a break. We examined how much the actual return of an investment might exceed its expected return based on its risk level. We asked our Certified Market Technician Mark Arbeter to study charts for technical signals that favor individual stocks and predict their alpha. Mark reported that it is difficult to find strong technical setups at this time. Still, he looked for stocks that have been beaten down but show evidence that the worst is over. Technical characteristics for these stocks include an existing intermediate- to long-term downtrend, capitulatory volume during weakness followed by an upside reversal, bullish daily and weekly momentum divergences, and (most importantly) signs that the stock is at least attempting to trace out a bottoming pattern. Mark looks for these bottom formations in certain trading patterns. Here's a list of Argus Research BUY-rated stocks that fit Mark's technical model, signally possibly upside ahead.