|Day's Range||97,085.21 - 100,007.25|
|52 Week Range||74,275.00 - 106,650.00|
Economic activity in Brazil fell slightly in the three months to June, a central bank indicator showed on Monday, suggesting Latin America's largest economy may have slipped into recession. The central bank's IBC-Br economic activity index, a leading indicator of gross domestic product (GDP), fell 0.13% in the second quarter, after a 0.68% drop in the three months to March. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
Brazil's currency and interest rate futures opened lower on Thursday, a day after the central bank kicked off an easing cycle with a sharper rate cut than most economists expected, while stocks rallied on the outlook for more stimulus ahead. The U.S. Federal Reserve also lowered its policy rate after some Brazilian financial markets closed on Wednesday, but played down the chances of a string of additional rate cuts, which boosted the U.S. dollar. Brazilian interest rate futures fell across the board on Thursday morning and the local currency, the real , weakened about 0.4%.
Most Latin American currencies extended gains on Friday after dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the Brazilian real holding at over three-month highs as investors welcomed progress in the government's pension reform bill. Brazil's markets have surged in recent days on prospects for the pension system overhaul, while signals from the Fed about potential interest rate cuts helped capital inflows into risky, emerging market assets. Speaker Rodrigo Maia said the lower house will try to conclude voting before the break for recess on July 18.
MSCI's Latin American currencies moved o.6% higher in line with emerging market peers as expectations of an interest rate cut by the Fed bodes well for developing market assets. The Mexican peso, which slid following the finance minister's abrupt resignation on Tuesday, gained 0.3%, but overhangs regarding the country's fiscal status kept investors nervous. All five of the Mexican central bank's board members agreed the slowdown in Mexico's economy had been larger than anticipated, with "signs of weakness" in the second quarter, minutes from the June 27 monetary policy meeting showed on Thursday.
The Brazilian real jumped 0.4%, its fourth straight day of gains that took the currency to over a four-month high, although the Bovespa stock index retreated from a record high set in the previous session. Brazil's markets have rallied this week as investors draw comfort from progress in the government's efforts to overhaul the pension system, a cornerstone of President Jair Bolsonaro's economic agenda aimed at saving the public purse around 1 trillion reais ($263 billion) over the next decade. House Speaker Rodrigo Maia said he hoped the complete bill could be put to a second, final vote by Friday or early Saturday.
Regional currencies lost between 0.03% to 0.7%, with Brazil's real slipping from three-month highs hit last session, as the dollar climbed 0.5%. "It (jobs data) reduces the scope for a 50bp cut this month, though does little to alter the easing narrative linked to the Fed," strategists at TD Securities wrote in a note. Brazil's real fell 0.4% after a strong rally on Thursday spurred by the government's pension reform bill clearing a key congressional hurdle, which paved the way for it to be put to a lower house plenary vote before the parliament breaks for recess.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.5% after data showed that U.S. job growth rebounded strongly in June as government hiring surged. "The results were really encouraging and reinforced the underlying strength of the U.S. market and the U.S. economy in general, and is likely to help to temper the markets' aggressive calls for easier policy from the Federal Reserve," said Candice Bangsund, asset allocation manager at Fiera Capital in Montreal. The Brazilian real fell 0.7% after touching its strongest level in more than three months on Thursday after the government's pension reform bill cleared a key congressional hurdle.
Markets are hoping that International Monetary Fund head Lagarde will maintain the ECB's recent dovish tone, which was echoed by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and had spurred inflows into riskier assets last month. "People think that Lagarde will be more dovish," said Gustavo Rangel, chief economist, LATAM at ING, adding that general expectations of a more support from the ECB and Fed are driving the market on the day.
Most Latin American currencies rose on Wednesday as optimism over U.S.-China trade talks offset weakness after the U.S. Federal Reserve dampened hopes of aggressive interest rate cuts. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday that the United States and China were close to a trade deal, CNBC reported ahead of meeting this week between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit. The news turned around weakness in Latin American assets after comments from Fed policymakers on Tuesday pushed investors to trim expectations of a half-point cut in interest rates in a policy meeting next month.
The Brazilian real edged lower for a second day, while the Mexican peso hovered near two-week lows even as the greenback touch new lows against a basket of major currencies. Minutes from the Brazilian central bank's June policy meeting showed the economy is stagnating and uncertainty surrounding economic and fiscal reforms is clouding the growth and inflation outlook. "BCB minutes emphasize that pension reform is the prerequisite for any easing," Citi analyst Dirk Willer wrote in a note.
(Updates prices) By Susan Mathew June 19 (Reuters) - Latin American currencies firmed on Wednesday, with Brazil's real and Mexico's peso reversing session losses to trade higher after the Federal Reserve signaled possible rate cuts of as much as half a percentage point in 2019. Brazil's real was up 0.2%, reversing losses of up to 0.6% logged earlier in the day, while Mexico's peso rose 0.1%, recovering from a decline of as much as 0.4%. Other regional currencies added to their gains. Most Latam stocks followed suit, with Sao Paulo-traded shares erasing losses to trade 0.8% higher, while gains in Mexican and Colombian stocks were bolstered.
The real rose about 0.4% while Sao Paulo-listed stocks also gained 0.4% to touch a near three-month high after Brazil's congressional pension reform bill coordinator Samuel Moreira said the proposed changes would generate savings of 913.4 billion reais ($237 billion) over the next decade. "All indications suggest that pension reform remains on track and may leave the committee with greater savings than the consensus expected," Dirk Willer, head of emerging market strategy at Citi Research, and Kenneth Lam, an emerging markets FX strategist, wrote in a note. The Argentine peso advanced for a third day in a sign of approval from markets after President Mauricio Macri picked a moderate running mate that could broaden his voter base in elections to be held later this year.
While most Latin American stocks weakened on Monday, Brazil shares rose sharply after a pro-government march mounted pressure on Congress to pass reforms seen as crucial to the economy. Sao Paulo's Bovespa ...
It’s been more than a month since U.S. equities lagged behind their global peers on consecutive days. Perhaps it’s just a reflection of investors deciding it’s a good time to cull some gains with U.S. stocks among the best performers this year, especially on a currency-adjusted basis. The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China has taken a turn for the worse, and nobody is really sure how much damage it will do to profits.