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Atsi Sheth, Managing Director of Moody’s Investors Service, tells Yahoo Finance that the chance of a recession has not reached 50% just yet. In order for that to happen she says, "the trade war has to escalate even beyond what the market expects and the market reaction to that escalation has to be even more severe." Meanwhile, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Money Map Press Chief Investment Strategist, believes a possibility of a recession looms on the "uncertainty in the election, and not necessarily traditional uncertainty in the political sense of the word, but uncertainty amongst the consumers because that's where the strong numbers are coming from at the moment." They both join Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi and Jared Blikre around Thursday's opening bell to discuss that, the strong U.S. dollar and an outlook for the Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium.
Chris Konstantinos the chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group said the U.S. economy is solid so don't expect negative interest rates.
Share gains from Boeing Co. help to buoy the Dow Jones index Thursday afternoon, after data on U.S. manufacturing sector came in weaker than expected, and a recessionary signal in the bond market flashed red, putting pressure on the broader market.
OUTSIDE THE BOX Q: Our nest is now finally empty, and we are just starting to save for retirement. I know we should have started earlier but I was self-employed and it was feast or famine. Every time we got things going, we were just paying down debts incurred when things weren’t so good and the kids got more expensive as they got older.
Boeing had its biggest up day in months, boosting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a minor gain. But some techs got throttled. Keysight Technologies broke out.
(Bloomberg) -- A rally in banks lifted U.S. stocks, while Treasuries fell after Federal Reserve officials cast doubt on further rate cuts.Financials stocks led gains in the S&P 500 Index, offsetting a slide in tech companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded as Boeing Co. surged. Benchmark 10-year yields rose after Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker told CNBC that he’s “on hold” right now for further monetary easing. His comments were in line with those of Kansas City counterpart Esther George, who said the U.S. doesn’t need lower rates.Read: Fed’s Regional Presidents Lining Up Against Additional Rate CutsEuro-area government bonds slumped as the European Central Bank expressed concern that investors were losing faith in its ability to revive inflation and after a measure of German manufacturers reinforced recession concern. The British pound jumped as investors seized on hints from European leaders that a Brexit deal could still be reached.Markets have been whipsawed amid concern over economic weakness, the path of interest rates and U.S.-China trade tension. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could provide more guidance on policy when he speaks Friday in Jackson Hole. Investors have priced a quarter percentage-point rate cut next month, but dissenting Fed voices may limit the prospects for the larger move that some have advocated, including President Donald Trump.“The big question mark is just going be Jackson Hole -- what’s Powell going to say?” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance. “You’re seeing the market going higher and lower this week heading into tomorrow, where we could get some market-moving commentary out of Powell’s speech.”Here are some notable events coming up:Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts its annual central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting Thursday.Here are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 2,926.16 as of 1:34 p.m. New York time.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dipped 0.4%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.The euro was little changed at $1.1081.The British pound gained 1% to $1.2251.The Japanese yen gained 0.2% to 106.44 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed one basis point to 1.60%.Germany’s 10-year yield increased three basis points to -0.64%.Britain’s 10-year yield gained four basis points to 0.517%.CommoditiesThe Bloomberg Commodity Index fell 0.3%.West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $55.69 a barrel.Gold declined 0.4% to $1,509 an ounce.\--With assistance from David Wilson, Paul Allen, Adam Haigh, Yakob Peterseil, Todd White and Sarah Ponczek.To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at email@example.com;Vildana Hajric in New York at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at email@example.com, Rita NazarethFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
The benchmark S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell on Thursday after weak U.S. manufacturing data raised concerns about the health of the economy, with comments from Fed officials dampening hopes of future interest rate cuts. A private survey showed U.S. manufacturing activity in August contracted for the first time in almost a decade, signs that factories are suffering from a global slowdown amid an escalating U.S.-China trade war.
Emerging-market assets held by hedge funds rose to a fresh high in the second quarter in spite of market headwinds, according to an industry report out Thursday. Hedge funds held a record $239.3 billion, according to the HFR Emerging Markets Hedge Fund Industry Report. Performance was strong, as well: the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index, the leading benchmark of global hedge fund performance covering all strategies and regions, gained 7.8% in the year through July.
Gold has been on a tear lately, despite a recent pause in gains, and the precious commodity could be poised to extend its rally above $1,500 an ounce, on the back of ballooning global debt and monetary policy that has resulted in trillions in negative-yielding securities.
“The big question: Is the U.S. in a recession or about to enter one? We’re either there or within two months away from that.”
Turns out hiring wasn’t quite as strong in 2018 and early 2019 as the government initially reported — by about a half-million jobs. The U.S. economy had about 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019
The three main U.S. stock indexes were mixed after data showed American manufacturing contracted in August, and the yield curve inverted for the third time this week.
Shares of Overstock.com Inc. soared 15% in midday trading Thursday, after controversial Founder and Chief Executive Patrick Byrne resigned from discount e-commerce site Thursday, effectively immediately, saying he was "far to controversial" to serve as CEO. The resignation comes after Byrne said last week that he had assisted in the Clinton and Russian investigations, and was actually the notorious missing "Chapter 1" of the Russian investigation. He also said he was romantically involved with jailed Russian agent Maria Butina. In a letter to shareholders Thursday, Byrne said he was concerned that his going public about "certain government matters" may affect and complicate strategic discussions regarding the retail business. "Thus, while I believe that I did what was necessary for the good of the country, for the good of the firm, I am in the sad position of having to sever ties with Overstock, both as CEO and board member, effective Thursday August 22," Byrne wrote. The company named board member Jonathan Johnson as interim CEO. Byrne had launched Overstock.com in late 1999. The stock has run up 64.6% year to date, while the Amplify Online Retail ETF has climbed 23.5% and the S&P 500 has gained 16.5%.
Square stock has taken a beating in the three weeks since it reported quarterly earnings. Deutsche Bank says it’s time to buy, because the company’s fundamentals are still strong.
Turns out hiring wasn’t nearly as strong in 2018 and early 2019 as the government initially reported—by about a half-million jobs.
Plus-size women's retailer Avenue said Thursday that it will close all of its retail locations after filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy on August 16. Store closing sales, with markdowns of 40% to 60%, have begun. Discounts do not apply to the company's e-commerce site. Avenue began as Sizes Unlimited in 1983 and carries items sized 14 to 32. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF has sunk nearly 24% over the past year while the S&P 500 index has gained almost 2% for the period.
Bank of America Corp.’s CEO Brian Moynihan says he doesn’t see a recession in the offing because the U.S. consumer remains healthy.
U.S. stocks turned lower on Thursday as the first contraction in the manufacturing sector in nearly a decade and uncertainty about future interest rate cuts overshadowed an initial boost from upbeat retail earnings. Adding to the downbeat mood, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said he does not see the case for additional stimulus, while Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George said she does not yet see a signal of a downturn in the U.S. economy. Despite the stock market stabilizing from a rough first half of August, investors are wary about how far policymakers are willing to cut rates and Powell's remarks may prove crucial to short-term sentiment.
The Nasdaq Composite's sharp swing lower Thursday came as it rose just shy of the widely followed 50-day moving average (DMA), which many chart watchers use as a guide to the short-term trend. The Nasdaq was up as much as 0.4% at an intraday high of 8,048.58 within 15 minutes after the open, while the 50-DMA line extended to 8,051.62 according to FactSet, but the index was last down 1.0%. The last time the Nasdaq was above the 50-DMA intraday was Aug. 13, but it pulled back to close below the line. The last close above it was Aug. 8. In comparison, the S&P 500's intraday high 2,939.08 was below the 50-DMA of 2,947.51 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's high of 26,388.78 was well below the 50-DMA of 26,615.13. The S&P 500 was last down 0.5% and the Dow was down 66 points, or 0.3%. Meanwhile, all three indexes remain above their respective 200-day moving averages (DMA), which is viewed as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends. The Nasdaq's 200-DMA extends to 7,590.06, while the S&P 500's extends to 2,801.93 and the Dow's is now at 25,615.83.
Jefferies analyst Sean Darby said Thursday there are reasons to be optimistic about both home builders and home-improvement retailers.
OUTSIDE THE BOX Until we retire we are all preretirees. So this article applies to you unless you’re already retired. However, my fundamental focus here is the mistakes people make in the last 10 years before they retire.
U.S. stocks stumbled to session lows late-morning Thursday, relinquishing earlier gains on the day amid a pair of central bank speakers at a closely watched symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., and weak manufacturing data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 85 points, or 0.3%, lower at 26,120, after the blue-chip index had gained by as many as 187 points at the session peak. The S&P 500 index declined 0.6% at 2,907 and the Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 0.9%, suffering the most severe reversal of the major indexes, to reach 7,948. A fresh inversion of the so-called yield curve, where the spread between the 2-year Treasury note rise above the 10-year Treasury note , a condition that has preceded the past seven economic recessions, also rattled investor sentiment. Kansas City Fed President Esther George indicated Thursday in an interview on CNBC that she would not support further interest-rate cuts and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he reluctantly supported the July rate cut but now wants to keep rates steady. On the economic front, IHS Markit’s most recent purchasing manager's index reading for the U.S. manufacturing services sectors, released Thursday, showed manufacturing slipping into contraction territory with a reading of 49.9 in August, from 50.4 in July and the services sector slowing to 50.9 in August from 53.0 in July, a 3-month low.
Target shares are hitting a new record high after the retailer reported second quarter earnings that crushed estimates. Target also raised its outlook for the rest of the year. Yahoo Finance's Akiko Fujita and Scott Gamm discuss.