^N225 - Nikkei 225
| Previous Close | 20,677.22 |
| Open | 20,489.97 |
| Volume | 0 |
| Day's Range | 20,482.62 - 20,623.73 |
| 52 Week Range | 18,948.58 - 24,448.07 |
| Avg. Volume | 60,923 |
- Reuters
Nikkei slips, trading subdued ahead of Jackson Hole, G7 summit
The Nikkei share average took its cue from Wall Street's selloff overnight and fell 0.4% to 20,596.92 by the midday break. In New York, all three major stock indexes retreated on Tuesday to end a three-day rally, with financial shares leading the losses. Trump said on Tuesday he had to confront China over trade even if it caused short-term harm to the U.S. economy because Beijing had been cheating Washington for decades.
- Reuters
GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares fall on recession fears; eyes on Fed minutes
Asian shares fell on Wednesday as fresh worries about a global recession led investors to dump risky assets, with U.S. President Donald Trump showing no signs of backing down in his trade war with China. Trump said on Tuesday he had to confront China over trade even if it caused short-term harm to the U.S. economy because Beijing had been cheating Washington for decades.
- Bloomberg
Stocks Mixed on Low Volumes; Treasuries Slip: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Asia were mixed on low volumes as investors assessed the latest news on trade talks and awaited more clues on monetary policy. Treasury yields ticked higher after retreating Tuesday.Japanese and Australian equities fell, while shares fluctuated in Hong Kong and China, and rose in South Korea. U.S. futures saw modest gains. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index closed lower as U.S. President Donald Trump showed no urgency to resolve trade friction with China and renewed his call for a “big” Federal Reserve rate cut. The yen slipped and the dollar was little changed.Just a day after markets cheered progress on trade negotiations, investors took a more cautious approach. Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, speaks with business leaders this week amid concerns about a recession, the trade war and whipsawing markets. Fed minutes are due Wednesday and though they’re outdated given recent market turmoil and likely to be overshadowed by Jerome Powell’s address at Jackson Hole, they may provide clarity on the economic outlook that would push officials to keep lowering rates.“The key thing this week is the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Powell,” Tuuli McCully, head of Asia-Pacific Economics at Scotiabank, told Bloomberg TV. “It will be interesting to hear if he sticks to the mid-cycle adjustment tone or if he will promise more.”Elsewhere, oil fluctuated and gold dipped. Italian bonds jumped on Tuesday as Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned, with the prospect of an alternative coalition still on the table.Here are some notable events coming up:Minutes of the Fed’s July meeting will provide details on the discussions leading to the first interest-rate cut in a decade when they are released on Wednesday.Germany will sell a 30-year bond at a 0% coupon for the first time on Wednesday, in a flurry of debt sales in the next two weeks offering negative rates.Thursday brings the Bank Indonesia rate decision and press conference with Governor Perry Warjiyo.Flash PMIs are due for the euro area on Thursday.Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts its annual central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting Thursday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give remarks on Friday.Here are the main moves in markets:StocksFutures on the S&P 500 added 0.2% as of 5:16 a.m. in London. The underlying gauge fell 0.8% Tuesday.Japan’s Topix index declined 0.7%.The Shanghai Composite was little changed.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 0.1%.Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 1.1%.Euro Stoxx 50 futures added 0.1%.CurrenciesThe yen was at 106.48 per dollar, down 0.2%.The offshore yuan rose 0.2% to 7.0599 per dollar.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat.The euro bought $1.1095, little changed.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose about two basis points to 1.58%.Australia’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 0.93%.CommoditiesBrent crude rose 0.5% to $60.31 a barrel.Gold dipped 0.3% to $1,503.18 an ounce.\--With assistance from Rita Nazareth and Sarah Ponczek.To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in Sydney at ahaigh1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net, Andreea Papuc, Joanna OssingerFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Bloomberg
Stocks Decline With Dollar as Treasuries Advance: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.Stocks fell and Treasuries climbed as investors assessed the latest news on trade talks and awaited more clues on monetary policy.The S&P 500 Index halted a three-day rally after U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo told CNBC that Huawei Technologies Co. isn’t the only Chinese company that poses risks. He also sees the U.S. and China continuing their talks -- at least by phone -- over the next week or 10 days. Later Tuesday, President Donald Trump said he’s not ready to make a deal with China and cited the need for a “big” Federal Reserve rate cut. Benchmark 10-year yields slumped while the dollar dropped from this year’s high. Italian bonds jumped as Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned.Just a day after markets cheered progress on trade negotiations, investors took a more cautious approach. Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, speaks with business leaders this week amid concerns about a recession, the trade war and whipsawing markets. Pacific Investment Management Co. has reduced its positions in government debt on bets that a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks could trigger a violent sell-off, the Financial Times reported. Traders are also gearing up for a keynote speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium Friday.“It’s kind of a choppy environment,” Dan Skelly, head of equity model portfolios at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a phone interview. “The liquidity in August is going to be pretty poor, so that certainly in my view caps the potential upside, but it does raise the risk that you do have a more pronounced sell-off at some point.”Read: JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sees Pivot Back to Stocks by End of AugustWall Street watchdogs handpicked by Trump eased the Volcker Rule’s controversial ban on banks making speculative investments, wrapping up a top deregulatory priority that’s long been sought by the financial industry. Still, bank stocks joined broader market losses.In corporate news, Home Depot Inc. surged after its results broadly cleared investor expectations -- or at least, were no worse than expected by Wall Street. Beyond Meat Inc. jumped after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral. Baidu Inc. soared after the China-based Internet company unexpectedly reported revenue growth in its June quarter. Kohl’s Corp. fell on sales that fell short of expectations.Here are some notable events coming up:Minutes of the Fed’s July meeting will provide details on the discussions leading to the first interest-rate cut in a decade when they are released on Wednesday.Thursday brings the Bank Indonesia rate decision and press conference with Governor Perry Warjiyo.Flash PMIs are due for the euro area on Thursday.Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts its annual central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting Thursday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give remarks on Friday.Here are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 2,900.51 as of 4 p.m. New York time.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index decreased 0.7%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.3%.The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1102.The Japanese yen increased 0.4% to 106.21 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries slid six basis points to 1.55%.Germany’s 10-year yield fell four basis points to -0.69%.Britain’s 10-year yield dropped two basis points to 0.452%.CommoditiesThe Bloomberg Commodity Index was little changed.West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.2% to $56.34 a barrel.Gold increased 0.3% to $1,516.70 an ounce.\--With assistance from Sybilla Gross, Andreea Papuc, Todd White and Laura Curtis.To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net;Sarah Ponczek in New York at sponczek2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at jherron8@bloomberg.net, Rita NazarethFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Reuters
Nikkei gains as trade tensions ease; Apple suppliers, chip-related shares outperform
Japan's Nikkei rose for a third straight day on Tuesday as investors tiptoed back into equities amid signs of a slight easing of trade tensions between the United States and China. On Monday, Washington extended a reprieve that permits China's Huawei Technologies to buy components from U.S. companies by 90 days, to supply existing customers. On Wall Street, all three major stock indexes gained overnight, with Apple jumping 1.9% to provide the biggest boost to the Nasdaq.
- Bloomberg
Inverted Yield Curve: Is It Time to Worry Yet?
(Bloomberg) -- Last year, U.S. 10-year yields weren’t low enough to really boost the equity market’s appeal. This summer, the inversion of the yield curve is suddenly triggering worries of a U.S. recession, while bund yields are deep into negative territory as Germany seems heading for an economic downturn. Yet there’s few signs of panic among equity traders.Many in the market agree that a U.S. recession isn’t imminent. UBS strategists see the inverted yield curve more as “a statement on lackluster growth in the rest of the world,” and suggest a slowdown would take some time to materialize.One interesting point they note is that European equities seem to have been more vulnerable than U.S. stocks to the gyration of the U.S. 10-year bond yield over the past six months.The U.S. 10-year yield has only fallen below 1.6% on two previous occasions: mid-2012 and mid-2016. According to Citi strategist Jonathan Stubbs, it has worked well as a buy signal for European equities both times, with the DAX returning 23% on average over the next 12 months, the CAC 24%, and the FTSE 17%. Of course, with Fed cuts, ECB QE and trade concerns, things may be different this time, he says.So, should we be worried? Not yet, according to JPMorgan strategists including Mislav Matejka. Over the past six historical episodes, yield-curve inversion preceded recessions by 17 months on average, while the equity market peaked about 11 months after the inversion, they write. Even if the risk of a downturn next year is increasing, much can happen in the meantime. They still expect equities to make all-time highs into the first half of 2020 and see the current pull-back not lasting beyond early September as the ECB will start quantitative easing and the second Fed rate cut might be bigger than the first.The bounce in the U.S. 10-year yield over the past couple of days may have also provided some relief. Indeed, Bank of America technical analysts note that extreme momentum has pushed the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the U.S. 10- and 30-year bonds into their fourth and fifth-most overbought level ever. This may signal an imminent “key low” or “pivot low.”And not all is bad about negative yields anyway. The more bond yields move deep into negative territory, the more stocks are seen by many as the only attractive asset. Why buy a bond on which you’re guaranteed to lose money while you can buy stocks with lofty dividend yields of 5% or more?True, if held until maturity, government bond yields don’t look appealing. But on an absolute-return basis, some long-duration securities beat stocks. Notably this year, Austria’s 100-year note has delivered investors as much as an 80% return so far. Granted, the timing must be right and liquidity could be an issue.Finally, let’s not forget about another silver lining. With Germany facing the danger of a recession, the government has signaled it stands ready to inject stimulus if things turn sour. Since the bund curve has turned negative across all maturities, financing those fiscal measures in the long-term is even more appealing.In the meantime, Euro Stoxx 50 futures are trading little changed ahead of the open, while S&P 500 contracts are up 0.2%.SECTORS IN FOCUS TODAY:Watch the dollar after President Trump called for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by at least a full percentage point in order to weaken the U.S. currency. Fed Chairman Powell is expected to signal the potential for another cut on Friday, though some of his colleagues are not convinced.Watch the pound and U.K. stocks after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson reiterated the country will be ready to leave the European Union without a deal by the current deadline at the end of October and is planning a September publicity blitz to prepare the public for a so-called hard Brexit. Meanwhile, the Labour party is gearing up for an election.COMMENT:“The flattening of the yield curve was pretty extreme and not what we would naturally expect with the Fed cutting rates, as news should generally affect near-term pricing more than the pricing of bonds maturing in 2040," Emiel Van Den Heiligenberg, head of asset allocation at LGIM, writes in a note. "We therefore aren’t convinced the current situation is sustainable, as the more the curve flattens, the more vocal some members of the Federal Open Market Committee will be in calling for rapid rate cuts.”NOTES FROM THE SELL SIDE:Peel Hunt initiates Playtech with an add rating, as the broker says that although the company is a “strategic muddle,” there is a will to sort out its issues which are “now exposed to daylight.”Jefferies says the biggest potential Brexit risks to the paper & pulp sector are goods-trade disruptions across U.K.-Europe borders as well as a potential macro slowdown next year in those markets. Mondi is seen as least exposed to U.K., SCA has the most U.K. sales exposure while DS Smith will see biggest FX sensitivity to earnings as a co. reporting in GBP with most profits coming from outside the U.K.European insurers have been surprisingly strong in the past 12 months but falling investment yields turns Bankhaus Lampe more cautious on the sector in a note downgrading its rating on Zurich to sell. Separately, Jefferies upgraded its rating on Zurich to buy.COMPANY NEWS AND M&A:BHP Gives Investors Bonanza Returns And a Trade Spat Warning (1)BHP CEO Says Top Miner Can Still Profit In Any Global DownturnBain, Carlyle Said to Weigh Raising Osram Bid to Counter AMSCasino Identifies New Asset Diposals Worth EU2bBNY Mellon, Societe Generale to Join German Cum-Ex Trial (1)Pandora Second Quarter Revenue 1.3% Above EstimatesBasilea Narrows FY Operating Loss View, Midpoint Wider Than Est.Seadrill Ltd 2Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Highest Est.South Korea May Fine Audi, Porsche over Alleged Emission-RiggingColoplast Chairman Lars Rasmussen Sells Shares Using OptionsAmbea Second-Quarter Net Sales Beat Highest EstimateAnglo American Pledges $30m for Peru Projects to End ProtestsGreene King Banishes Brexit Blues With Some Help From Hong KongCarige Calls Investor Meeting to Back $1 Billion Rescue PlanTECHNICAL OUTLOOK for Stoxx 600 index:Resistance at 374.5 (61.8% Fibo); ~386 (uptrend); 395.1 (July high)Support at 370.9 (200-DMA); 365.5 (50% Fibo, May low)RSI: 45.5TECHNICAL OUTLOOK for Euro Stoxx 50 index:Resistance at ~3,400 (uptrend) 3,403 (61.8% Fibo); 3,443 (50-DMA)Support at 3,249 (June/August low); 3,301 (200-DMA)RSI: 46.8MAIN RESEARCH AND RATING CHANGES:UPGRADES:Alstria Office upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan; PT 18 EurosAntofagasta upgraded to neutral at Goldman; PT 8.50 PoundsFLSmidth upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan; PT 360 KronerGlencore upgraded to neutral at Goldman; PT 2.20 PoundsHumana upgraded to buy at Handelsbanken; PT 57 KronorZurich Ins. upgraded to buy at Jefferies; PT 380 FrancsDOWNGRADES:Continental cut to hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Set to 120 EurosGreene King cut to equal-weight at Morgan StanleyMetrovacesa downgraded to sell at Goldman; PT 8.12 EurosProximus downgraded to sell at Goldman; PT 21 EurosRentokil downgraded to sector perform at RBC; PT 4.70 PoundsRepsol downgraded to underweight at Barclays; PT 16 EurosZurich Ins. downgraded to sell at Bankhaus LampeINITIATIONS:Addiko rated new buy at Goldman; PT 27 EurosOlvi Oyj rated new buy at SEB Equities; PT 41 EurosPlaytech rated new add at Peel Hunt; PT 4.25 PoundsStobart rated new outperform at MacquarieMARKETS:MSCI Asia Pacific up 1%, Nikkei 225 up 0.5% S&P 500 up 1.2%, Dow up 1%, Nasdaq up 1.4%Euro up 0.05% at $1.1084Dollar Index down 0.01% at 98.34Yen up 0.11% at 106.52Brent up 0.1% at $59.8/bbl, WTI little changed at $56.2/bblLME 3m Copper down 0.1% at $5768/MTGold spot up 0.1% at $1497.4/ozUS 10Yr yield down 2bps at 1.59% ECONOMIC DATA (All times CET):11am: (EC) June Construction Output MoM, prior -0.3%11am: (EC) June Construction Output YoY, prior 2.0%12pm: (UK) Aug. CBI Trends Total Orders, est. -25, prior -3412pm: (UK) Aug. CBI Trends Selling Prices, prior 12To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Msika in London at mmsika4@bloomberg.net;Jan-Patrick Barnert in Frankfurt at jbarnert3@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Blaise Robinson at brobinson58@bloomberg.net, Jon MenonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- FX Empire
Asian Stocks Riding Wall Street’s Coattails Higher; PBOC Offers Some Relief
Basically, the move by the Bit’s another way for companies to get cheaper money, which should be a positive for the economy and China’s stock market. In theory, the MLF rate could follow U.S. rates, which means if the Fed cuts rates, MLF rates will follow lower.
- Bloomberg
Stocks Rally on Trade as Dollar Rises to 2019 High: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.Stocks climbed after the Trump administration signaled progress on trade negotiations and speculation grew that major central banks will shore up their economies. The dollar rose to this year’s high.The S&P 500 Index gained for a third day, led by chipmakers, as U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the nation will delay restrictions imposed on some business operations of China’s Huawei Technologies Co. The Treasury market was unfazed by President Donald Trump’s call for the central bank to cut rates by “at least 100 basis points.” Bunds tumbled as Germany was said to be preparing fiscal stimulus measures. Oil rallied as a drone attack in Saudi Arabia highlighted simmering Middle East tension. Gold fell.In corporate news, Walt Disney Co. erased gains and was little changed at the close after a MarketWatch report cited a whistleblower who said the company had materially overstated revenue for years. Baidu Inc. surged in after-hours trading after quarterly revenue beat analysts’ estimates.The week started on a positive note as the news on Huawei was seen as encouraging for the long-awaited trade pact between the world’s two largest economies. Still, the company said the temporary relief doesn’t change the fact that it’s been treated “unjustly.” The announcement of a reprieve followed a tweet from Trump over the weekend indicating the U.S. was “doing very well with China, and talking,” but suggesting he wasn’t ready to sign a deal.“It’s kind of like a drunken walk,” said Paul Nolte, a money manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “There’s no rhyme or reason from day to day as to what’s happening with trade, and trade is really what’s driving the markets. And there’s no way to handicap it. There is no glide path, there is no, ‘Here’s what happening.’ It’s a random walk.”Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, will speak with business leaders this week amid concerns about the rising odds for a recession, the trade war and whipsawing markets. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren pushed back against further rate cuts, arguing he’s not convinced that slowing trade and global growth will significantly dent the economy. Investors awaited Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks about the challenges for monetary policy at the Jackson Hole symposium Friday.Blue-chip U.S. companies are likely to see a surge in demand for their bonds as the rising amount of negative-yielding debt globally forces more overseas investors to seek higher returns in dollar assets, according to Bank of America Corp. “There is a wall of new money being forced into the global corporate bond market,” strategists led by Hans Mikkelsen wrote in an Aug. 16 note.Here are some notable events coming up:Minutes of the Fed’s July meeting will provide details on the discussions leading to the first interest-rate cut in a decade when they are released on Wednesday.Thursday brings the Bank Indonesia rate decision and press conference with Governor Perry Warjiyo.Flash PMIs are due for the euro area on Thursday.Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts its annual central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting Thursday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give remarks on Friday.Here are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 2,923.65 at 4 p.m. in New York.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 1.1%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.9%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.3%.The euro decreased 0.1% to $1.1078.The Japanese yen dipped 0.3% to 106.65 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.60%.Germany’s 10-year yield jumped four basis points to -0.65%.Britain’s 10-year yield climbed less than one basis point to 0.47%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude increased 2.4% to $56.21 a barrel.Gold for December delivery fell 0.8% to $1,511.60 an ounce; the spot price dropped below $1,500.\--With assistance from Adam Haigh, Todd White and Laura Curtis.To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net;Sarah Ponczek in New York at sponczek2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at jherron8@bloomberg.net, Rita NazarethFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- FX Empire
Stocks Ready to Jump Again, but Is Downtrend Over?
Stocks retraced some of their recent declines on Friday, as investors’ sentiment improved following bouncing off the short-term support level, economic data releases. The S&P; 500 index continues to trade within a consolidation. Is this a bottoming pattern or just a flat correction before another leg down?
- Reuters
Stimulus optimism boosts stocks, eases pressure on bonds
World stock markets rose on Monday on signs that major economies would look to prop up stalling growth with fresh stimulus measures, easing pressure on bonds and dampening demand for perceived safe-havens such as gold. Hopes of government action to stave off fears of recession - triggered by an inversion in the U.S. bond yield curve - grew as China's central bank unveiled interest rate reforms expected to lower corporate borrowing costs. The prospect of Germany's coalition government ditching its balanced budget rule to take on new debt and launch stimulus steps also helped the mood, after boosting Wall Street shares on Friday.
- FX Empire
Asia Pacific Shares Jump Amid Easing Fears of Global Recession
Buyers are responding to a recovery in U.S. Treasury yields, which may be serving as a sign that talk of a U.S. recession may have been overblown.
- Reuters
Japan stocks advance as stimulus hopes calm global recession fears
Japanese shares rose on Monday as signs central banks around the world are taking steps to support their economies helped ease immediate concerns about a global recession. "Improving external factors buoyed Japanese stocks today but the trading was quite subdued," said Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at Monex Securities. Turnover on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's main board was thin at 1.54 trillion yen, its lowest in six weeks, and well below its daily average of 2.33 trillion yen over the past year.
- Bloomberg
Would ECB Buying Equities Really Be a Good Idea?
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.Just when the market is looking for a positive catalyst to revive its rally, the European Central Bank’s Olli Rehn seems to think it’s a good move to float the idea of equity purchases as a means of stimulus. But a number of investors and strategists aren’t too thrilled and warn of the risk of artificially overvalued assets.In an interview with the Wall Street Journal last week, Rehn said that it was better for the ECB to overshoot than undershoot market expectations when it comes to new support measures, and didn’t rule out adding equities to the central bank’s stimulus program.“I hope the ECB won’t start buying stocks,” said Roelof Salomons, chief strategist at Kempen Capital Management. “Buying stocks is great for investors but it won’t move the needle -- it will create a bubble instead. The ECB has already made a mistake with bond purchases."The rationale behind possible stock purchases is to stimulate household consumption and help European companies raise capital at higher prices to finance investment, according to Laurent Douillet, a Bloomberg Intelligence strategist. Yet, simply buying equities won’t push European firms to boost their capex plans, says Kempen’s Salomons. For that to happen, countries like France and Italy need to implement reforms while Germany needs to increase government spending, he says.If the ECB were to start buying stocks, it wouldn’t be the first central bank to engage in such extraordinary measure. The Bank of Japan has been buying exchange-traded funds since 2010 and now dominates the nation’s ETF industry, spurring concerns among money managers about an equity overhang.“I am a bit skeptical,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg in Frankfurt. “Equity buying by a central bank has not worked in Japan. And for the euro zone, the wealth effect should be quite limited."At last July’s meeting, ECB policy makers committed to review a swathe of options including interest-rate cuts and renewed quantitative easing. Meanwhile, European equity funds have seen almost non-stop outflows since March 2018, having lost about $87 billion this year alone, according to Bank of America and EPFR Global.While Rehn may be considering launching stock purchases, the majority of the ECB’s governing council would oppose such a move, says Peter Schaffrik, a global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “I am at this stage not even really thinking about the risks of this scenario as I just don’t think this is a realistic option, it’s a red herring."However, it’s important to note that many strategists and investors had also doubted that the ECB would ever start its 2.6 trillion-euro ($2.9 trillion) bond-buying program to stimulate growth.And some support such a move. Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, said in April that the ECB should consider buying stocks as a form of additional stimulus as debt costs in Europe are much lower and equity is “too expensive.”“It’s a conflict between investors and economists,” says Kempen’s Salomons. “Markets love shorter-term gains even if those come with long-term concerns. You don’t want to be in the ECB’s shoes.”In the meantime, Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up 0.5% ahead of the open, while S&P 500 futures are rising 0.6%.SECTORS IN FOCUS TODAY:Watch German stocks after the government hinted that the country could add about 50 billion euros of spending, putting a number on the possible stimulus for the first time while also indicating nothing was imminent on that front.Watch Italian equities ahead of a confidence vote in the government on Tuesday. The League and Five Star appear to be beyond healing, with the latter moving to distance itself from Deputy Prime Minister and League leader Matteo Salvini.Watch trade-sensitive stocks as the rollercoaster that is keeping up with the state of U.S.-China trade talks begins with a degree of positivity. U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted his team is “doing very well with China, and talking!”COMMENT:“Investors have fled equities in favor of bond and money market funds at a record rate this year,” Bernstein strategists write in a note. “This low level of investor sentiment provides a cushion for the market so we are not bearish despite worsening macro data. At the very least, this makes this August very different from the last Chinese devaluation of August 2015 when investors had been buying in the prior six months.”NOTES FROM THE SELL SIDE:Jefferies says EON’s earnings outlook continues to appear subdued, although these challenges are now better understood by the market. Broker lifts rating to hold from underperform.Citi raises X5 Retail to buy, and sees co. delivering growth in an environment where growth is becoming more rare. Says “conservatively” models 7.6% Ebitda margin this year, up from previous 7.3%.The U.K. buy-to-let market remains in “decent health” and there’s significant upside for the likes of Charter Court, OneSavings Bank and Paragon Banking, Peel Hunt writes in a note boosting price targets on all three firms. Paragon (buy, PT 580p) is top pick, Charter Court kept at buy (PT 400p), OneSavings also buy (PT 470p).Morgan Stanley initiates Colruyt at equal-weight, seeing free cash generation as able to provide some support to the shares even if risk/reward remains skewed toward the downside.COMPANY NEWS AND M&A:DSV Completes Acquisition of Panalpina; Sees DKK2,200M SynergiesDassault Systemes Says Medidata Stockholders Approve PurchaseGrand City Properties 1H FFO Up 7%; Confirms 2019 GuidanceBpost CEO Van Gerven to Leave Co. in Feb.: De StandaardLundin Norway Makes Small Oil Find South of Edvard Grieg: NPDMitie Set to Sell Stake in Gather & Gather in GBP90M Deal: SkyVapiano CEO Everke to Resign From Office Effective Aug. 31TECHNICAL OUTLOOK for Stoxx 600 index:Resistance at 370.8 (200-DMA); 374.5 (61.8% Fibo); ~386 (uptrend); 395.1 (July high)Support at 365.5 (50% Fibo, May low); 356.5 (38.2% Fibo)RSI: 39.2TECHNICAL OUTLOOK for Euro Stoxx 50 index:Resistance at ~3,400 (uptrend) 3,403 (61.8% Fibo); 3,444 (50-DMA)Support at 3,249 (June/August low); 3,300 (200-DMA)RSI: 41.5MAIN RESEARCH AND RATING CHANGES:UPGRADES:CNH Industrial upgraded to overweight at Morgan StanleyEON upgraded to hold at Jefferies; PT 7.80 EurosHumana upgraded to buy at ABG; PT 55 KronorNovozymes raised to neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target 275 KronerRatos upgraded to hold at SEB Equities; PT 18 KronorScout24 Upgraded to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 57.50 EurosX5 Retail GDRs upgraded to buy at CitiDOWNGRADES:Paragon GmbH & Co KGaA cut to hold at Bankhaus LampeTechnogym downgraded to hold at BerenbergINITIATIONS:Colruyt rated new equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 43.40 EurosMARKETS:MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.4%, Nikkei 225 up 0.8% S&P 500 up 1.4%, Dow up 1.2%, Nasdaq up 1.7%Euro down 0.01% at $1.1089Dollar Index up 0.08% at 98.22Yen down 0.01% at 106.39Brent up 1.2% at $59.3/bbl, WTI up 1% to $55.4/bblLME 3m Copper up 0.3% at $5763/MTGold spot down 0.5% at $1506/ozUS 10Yr yield up 3bps at 1.58% ECONOMIC DATA (All times CET):10am: (IT) June Current Account Balance, prior 2.6b10am: (EC) June ECB Current Account SA, prior 29.7b11am: (EC) July CPI Core YoY, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%11am: (EC) July CPI MoM, est. -0.4%, prior 0.2%11am: (EC) July CPI YoY, est. 1.1%, prior 1.3%\--With assistance from Michael Msika.To contact the reporter on this story: Ksenia Galouchko in London at kgalouchko1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Blaise Robinson at brobinson58@bloomberg.net, Jon MenonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Reuters
GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks advance as China's rates tweak improves investor mood
Asian stocks rode a Wall Street rally on Monday and were also cheered by a decision from China's central bank to alter the way it sets a key interest rate benchmark, a move seen by analysts as reducing borrowing costs for companies. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) on Saturday unveiled key interest rate reforms to help steer borrowing costs lower for companies and support a slowing economy caught in the grip of a bruising trade war with the United States. Hopes major economies will seek to prop up slowing growth with fresh stimulus have helped ease some of the recession fears unleashed in markets last week.
- Reuters
GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks gain as China rates tweak lifts investor mood
Asian stocks tracked the Wall Street rally on Monday and found an extra tailwind from a move by China's central bank to change the way a key interest rate benchmark is set, seen by analysts as reducing borrowing costs for companies. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) on Saturday unveiled key interest rate reforms to help steer borrowing costs lower for companies and support a slowing economy caught in the grip of a bruising trade war with the United States. Hopes major economies will seek to prop up slowing growth with fresh stimulus have helped ease some of the recessionary fears unleashed in markets last week.
- FX Empire
A Light Day on the Calendar Leaves Geopolitics and Monetary Policy in Focus
It’s “risk-on” in the early part of the Asian session. With economic data on the lighter side, the markets will likely respond further to last week’s stats.
- Bloomberg
Stocks Rise, Treasuries Fall on Stimulus Bets: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.U.S. stocks rose for a second day as investors got a reprieve from trade posturing and speculation mounted that European officials will bolster stimulus if growth in the region continues to sputter. Treasuries nudged lower, lifting yields from multiyear lows.The S&P 500 jumped more than 1%, notching its 13th straight session with an intraday move of that magnitude as August volatility persisted. The index lost 1% in the five days for a third straight drop. Bulls got ammunition when on a report Germany would engage in deficit spending in the event of a recession. A day earlier, a European Central Bank official said monetary stimulus would be greater than investors anticipated. Germany’s Dax surged and the region’s bonds retreated.In the U.S., chipmakers paced Friday’s advance after Nvidia Corp.’s after quarterly sales and profit beat estimates. Banks also rose as the yield curve steepened, with two-year rates slipping and 10-years turning higher. Deere & Co. rebounded even after cutting guidance, blaming in part the trade war for undermining sales. In Asia, shares in Hong Kong rallied, Chinese stocks edged higher and Korean equities fell.The prospect for strong European stimulus bolstered confidence that the U.S. economy would be spared some of the ill-effects of the slowdown in that region. Investors remained on edge over trade after a week of back-and-forth headlines delivered wild swings in the equity and bond markets. With traders gunning for more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, chair Jerome Powell may give a hint of his thinking when he speaks Aug. 23 at the annual central bankers retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.“The Fed, in order to keep this expansion going, needs to provide additional accommodation,” Tiffany Wilding, U.S. economist at Pacific Investment Management Co., told Bloomberg TV. “Whether they are able to arrest the downturn -- there is some question around that. Ultimately we think that they will be able to.”Here are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 Index gained 1.45% as of 4 p.m. New York time.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.2%.The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.3%.The MSCI Emerging Market Index increased 0.7%, trimming the week’s loss to 1.1%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%, pushing its weekly advance to 0.5%.The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1092.The British pound jumped 0.5% to $1.2146.The onshore yuan dipped 0.1% to 7.04 per dollar.The Japanese yen declined 0.2% to 106.34 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 1.5454%.The yield on two-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 1.48%.Germany’s 10-year yield rose three one basis points to -0.685%.Britain’s 10-year yield climbed six basis points to 0.466%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $54.76 a barrel.Iron ore climbed 0.3% to $86.75 per metric ton.Gold futures decreased 0.6% to $1,522.60 an ounce.\--With assistance from Nancy Moran, Adam Haigh and Yakob Peterseil.To contact the reporters on this story: Jeremy Herron in New York at jherron8@bloomberg.net;Sarah Ponczek in New York at sponczek2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at jherron8@bloomberg.net, ;Christopher Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net, Namitha JagadeeshFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- FX Empire
Asia Markets Mixed; Focus Remains on Treasury Yields
Some investors may have been lulled into believing that recession is imminent and guaranteed, but that’s not the case with this inversion indicator. Research shows the stock market could rally for 15 months after the inversion, and recession may not start until 22 months after the first signal is flashed.
- Reuters
Japanese shares edge up as Hong Kong, China markets stabilise
Japanese shares edged up Friday after markets in China and Hong Kong found some stability amid ongoing unrest in Hong Kong, but the gains were limited by nagging fears of a global economic slowdown. The Nikkei index gained 0.06% on Friday to 20,418.81. "The rise by equities in Hong Kong and Shanghai amid a suggestion by U.S. President (Donald) Trump to China's president that they discuss issues, including the situation in Hong Kong, has supported the market," said Yutaka Miura, senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities.
- Reuters
SoftBank's Fortress emerges as white knight for hotel chain Unizo with $1.3 billion bid
Japanese hotel chain Unizo Holdings said it received a friendly buyout offer worth up to $1.3 billion from a SoftBank Group investment firm, a deal that will help it fend off a rare hostile takeover bid from travel agency H.I.S. Co. U.S.-based Fortress Investment Group will launch a tender offer from next week for all of Unizo's shares at 4,000 yen apiece ($37.68), the companies said in separate statements, trumping the 3,100 yen that H.I.S. has offered. Unizo has publicly opposed the H.I.S. bid, saying it lacked synergy and undervalued the hotel chain.
- Reuters
UPDATE 2-SoftBank-owned Fortress to make rival bid for Japan's Unizo -Nikkei
Fortress Investment Group, a U.S. investment firm owned by SoftBank Group, will offer to buy Japanese hotel operator Unizo Holdings, launching a counter bid against travel agency H.I.S. Co, the Nikkei reported. Fortress will a launch tender offer as soon as the start of next week for all the shares in Unizo at a price higher than H.I.S.'s offer of 3,100 yen per share, the Nikkei said on Friday. Unizo, which opposes H.I.S.'s bid, has sought help from Fortress as a 'white knight', the Japanese daily said, without citing sources.
- Reuters
Global Markets: Dollar firms, stocks soar on ECB rate cut expectations
U.S. and European stocks surged on Friday on expectations the European Central Bank will cut interest rates but the dollar pared gains against the euro after a report said the German government was prepared to take on new debt to lift the economy. The dollar hit a two-week high against the euro as expectations of ECB stimulus weighed on the single currency and bullish data showing a jump in U.S. homebuilding permits to a seven-month high also helped lift the greenback. Borrowing costs had plumbed new lows throughout the week as investors unnerved by the prospect of European recession piled into safer assets.
