|Day's Range||21,658.27 - 21,820.77|
|52 Week Range||18,948.58 - 22,959.41|
(Bloomberg) -- Signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks sent stocks to the biggest gain in a week and had Wall Street handicappers making odds on a bigger rally to come.The S&P 500 Index climbed to within 1.8% of a record after President Donald Trump said the two sides agreed to the outlines of a deal that could be signed as early as next month. The equity benchmark rose 1.1% Friday, closing off its session highs since several of the thorniest trade problems remain unresolved. Equities also got a boost from signs of progress in Brexit negotiations.At JPMorgan Chase & Co., strategists led by John Normand estimated there is 10% upside or more in the stock market under a “blue sky” scenario where agreements are reached in both cases, based on the way past geopolitical crises played out.Outstanding issues are likely to be resolved because a trade truce with China would strengthen Trump’s bid for next year’s re-election while both the U.K. and European economies are too weak for their leaders to accept a no-deal outcome, the strategists argue. They boosted the odds for an Oct. 31 Brexit deal from 5% to 50% amid news that U.K. prime minister Boris Johnson made a vital breakthrough in talks with Irish leader Leo Varadkar.Apple Inc., which sells millions of iPhones in China, rose to an all-time high. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped the most since January. Crude oil surged following an explosion on an Iranian tanker and Pentagon plans to ramp up the deployment of U.S. forces to Saudi Arabia. Gilts tumbled and the pound had the biggest two-day gain in a decade.While the strategists admitted details on the trade situation are “too scarce to rethink forecasts,” they urged investors to start positioning for a favorable outcome. Further progress is likely to revive risk appetite from investors who have sought shelter in fixed income and low-volatility stocks.“There is still a peace dividend to be earned after this week’s moves,” the strategists wrote in a note. “Geopolitics created a growth slump and sank asset prices and bond yields, so less uncertainty should drive a growth revival and market reversals, as long as valuations and positions do not already reflect positive outcomes.”If history is of any guide, they say, investors should brace for a rotation into emerging markets, cyclical and value shares while preparing for losses in assets such as developed market bonds, U.S. dollar and Japanese yen.Investors embraced the progress on trade talks after conflicting headlines roiled markets this week, even if the accord falls short of a comprehensive agreement that would put an end to the trade war.“We could break through all-time highs if investors really perceive peace to this latest round,” said Diane Jaffee, senior portfolio manager at TCW, which oversees $200 billion. “Even though the market is rising today, there’s still a lot of skepticism embedded here. A lot, a lot, a lot.”Elsewhere, equities rallied throughout Asia, with shares in Hong Kong getting an extra lift as protesters discussed scaling back vandalism ahead of demonstrations this weekend.Here are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 Index added 1.1% at the close of trading in New York.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged 2.3%.The MSCI Emerging Market Index climbed 1.8%.The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.9%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.5% to a two-month low.The euro increased 0.4% to $1.1046.The British pound jumped 1.8% to $1.2667.The offshore yuan climbed 0.4% to 7.0736 per dollar.The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 108.43 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries gained nine basis points to 1.75%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed three basis points to -0.45%.Britain’s 10-year yield jumped 12 basis points to 0.70%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.3% to $54.80 a barrel.Gold decreased 0.6% to $1,484.57 an ounce.\--With assistance from Sophie Caronello and Sarah Ponczek.To contact the reporters on this story: Vildana Hajric in New York at firstname.lastname@example.org;Lu Wang in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at firstname.lastname@example.org, Brendan WalshFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Global stocks and the euro rallied on Friday on signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and hopes that Britain was moving closer to a smooth exit from the European Union. U.S. officials signaled good news was coming after a second day of trade talks with China ended, boosting investor hopes that the world's two largest economies would agree to cool the fires of their 15-month tariff war. Sterling jumped nearly 2% versus the dollar for a second day, putting it on track for its largest weekly gain in more than two years after the EU Brexit negotiator reported a "constructive" meeting with his British counterpart.
Global stocks and the euro rallied on Friday on signs of a detente in the U.S.-China trade war and hopes that Britain was moving closer to a smooth exit from the European Union. U.S. crude rose 1.46% to $54.33 per barrel and Brent was last at $60.16, up 1.79% on the day.
“Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, but do I? I meet with the Vice Premier tomorrow at The White House,” Trump said in a tweet Thursday.
Wall Street futures traded firmly higher Friday, while global stocks booked solid gains as investors returned to risk markets, following reports of a better-than-expected day one meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials that could potentially unlock the year-long dispute between the world's two biggest economies.
The Nikkei's benchmark index struck its highest in over a week on Friday as the safe-haven yen eased on hopes of progress in U.S.-China trade talks, and Seven & I Holdings, Japan's largest convenience store operator, gained sharply on restructuring plans. Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators wrapped up a first day of trade talks in more than two months on Thursday, as business groups expressed optimism the two sides might be able to de-escalate a trade war and delay a U.S. tariff hike scheduled for next week. U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that his team had a "very, very good negotiation" with China, and reiterated his plans to meet with Liu at the White House on Friday.
Stocks on Wall Street came off their highs in late trading after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a partial trade deal with China that could be signed within weeks, with the boost from New York enough to give stocks across the globe their largest daily gain in two months. The British pound closed its strongest week against the dollar in over two years on hopes that Britain was moving closer to a smooth exit from the European Union and oil jumped over 2% after reports of an attack on an Iranian tanker.
Stocks rose on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would meet with China's top trade negotiator on Friday, while the British pound rallied after the prime ministers of Britain and Ireland revived hopes of a possible Brexit deal. A drop in the U.S. currency, also tied to trade talks, supported dollar-denominated commodity prices, including oil, which rose after OPEC pledged to make a decision on supply in December. Markets were expected to remain highly volatile as high-level U.S.-China trade negotiations were due to continue through Friday.
(Bloomberg) -- Stocks gained and Treasury yields jumped as investors kept a careful eye on the latest trade developments amid high-level meetings between American and Chinese officials. The pound surged on talk of a Brexit deal.Banks and automakers led the S&P 500 Index higher, though there were plenty of gyrations along the way after an overnight session that saw futures whipsawed by headlines giving conflicting signs of progress on the negotiations. The dollar fell, brushing off a weak inflation reading. Ten-year Treasury yields rose past 1.65% as bonds rallied globally. China’s yuan climbed the most in a month.Among the latest developments on trade:Both China and the U.S. signaled cautious optimism in securing a partial deal for a temporary truce on tariffsThe discussions extended into the afternoon ThursdayPresident Donald Trump said in a Twitter post that he plans to meet with Vice Premier Liu He on Friday, adding “They want to make a deal, but do I?”Markets have grown jittery against a backdrop of deteriorating economic data and fresh tensions between the U.S. and China in recent days, as they prepare for the first face-to-face talks between senior officials since July. Investor nerves were on full display Thursday as a series of headlines roiled markets, with traders attempting to digest reports on everything from the duration of the talks to the potential currency pact.“China trade talks are really dominating everything and we’ve seen how unpredictable they can be,” Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA, said by phone. “We’ve seen it move just back and forth so dramatically. I think everyone’s really going to have to wait until a deal gets actually done.”Elsewhere on Thursday, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index and the British pound extended gains after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar said they could “see a pathway to a possible deal” on Brexit.Crude rose after OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said members and allies including Russia will do “whatever it takes” to prevent another oil slump as the global economy weakens.Asian shares ended the session mixed, with Japanese equities recouping their declines by the close, South Korea down and Hong Kong and Shanghai notching modest gains.Here are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 Index rose 0.6% at the close of trading in New York.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.7%.The MSCI Emerging Market Index increased 0.5%.The Nikkei-225 Stock Average added 0.5%CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index sank 0.4%.The euro gained 0.3% to $1.1006.The British pound advanced 2% to $1.2447.The offshore yuan increased 0.4% to 7.1108 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.4% to 107.95 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose eight basis points to 1.66%.Germany’s 10-year yield rose eight basis points to -0.47%.Britain’s 10-year yield jumped 13 basis points to 0.58%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.1% to $53.69 a barrel.Gold fell 0.8% to $1,493.83 an ounce.\--With assistance from Sybilla Gross, Christopher Anstey, Yakob Peterseil and Todd White.To contact the reporter on this story: Vildana Hajric in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at firstname.lastname@example.org, Brendan WalshFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Stocks rose on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would meet with China's top trade negotiator on Friday, while oil rose as OPEC pledged a decision on supply at its December meeting. Markets were expected to remain volatile, with the focus on the China-U.S. trade talks, as wild overnight gyrations indicated traders were ready to chase every headline. The euro hit its highest since Sept. 20 versus the dollar as the greenback turned weaker across the board, partly due to a Bloomberg report about a U.S.-China currency pact to stop the yuan's devaluation.
A dive in the dollar catapulted the euro higher and flattened stocks on Thursday as the first U.S.-China trade talks since July and a report accusing the European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi of going rogue jostled for attention. Markets were bombarded from all sides: denials and counter-denials on the state of U.S.-China trade talks and the Brexit countdown, a Turkish military push into Syria and a blizzard of weak data stretching from Japan to France. Asia had managed a broadly positive finish but Europe's main bourses and Wall Street futures were left dithering as the more serious action took place in the currency markets.
After the sharp break early in the session, Asian shares mounted a powerful comeback rally to turn higher for the day after the New York Times reported Wednesday evening stateside that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is set to grant licenses that would allow American firms to sell nonsensitive supplies to Huawei.
Japanese stocks bounced back from early losses to end higher on Thursday, helped by a flush of optimism over chances that the United States and China can scale back their trade war at high-level talks set for later in the day. The Nikkei index ended up 0.45% at 21,551.98, after shedding as much as 0.7% earlier in the day. Japanese shares were boosted by a New York Times report that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration will soon issue licences allowing some U.S. companies to supply non-sensitive goods to Chinese telecommunications equipment maker Huawei Technologies Co Ltd.
U.S. equity futures traded lower Thursday, while global stocks reversed earlier gains, as investors braced for what could be make-or-break trade talks in Washington later today while eyeing further signals of economic weakness that underscore the impact of the year-long dispute.
Japanese stocks bounced back from early losses on Thursday, as optimism improved that the United States and China can scale back their trade war at high-level talks taking place later in the day. At 0231 GMT, the Nikkei index was up 0.46% at 21,555.67, after shedding as much as 0.7% earlier in the day. Japanese shares got a boost after the New York Times reported that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration will soon issue licences allowing some U.S. companies to supply non-sensitive goods to Chinese telecommunications equipment maker Huawei Technologies Co Ltd.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks advanced on optimism that the U.S. and China will make progress in trade talks this week despite some conflicting signals on the outlook. Treasury yields climbed.The S&P 500 Index ended the day up almost 1% in a rally fueled by speculation that China is still open to a partial deal with the U.S. But in a sign of how tenuous the new-found confidence is, stocks pared gains in the afternoon after a report that China sought to tamp down expectations for progress.Ten-year Treasury yields climbed past 1.55%. The Turkish currency and its stocks dropped after the country began a military offensive in Syria against Kurdish militants. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced for the third day in four.While volume was subdued during the Yom Kippur holiday, equities traders were looking closely for signals about high-level U.S.-China trade talks that are set to resume in Washington on Thursday. While a broad agreement seems unlikely, China indicated it’s open to a limited deal, provided no more tariffs are imposed, according to an official. In return, Beijing would offer non-core concessions like purchases of agricultural products without giving in on major sticking points, the official said, without offering further details.“It’s encouraging to hear China say that they want to make some sort of small deal,” said Randy Frederick, a vice president of trading and derivatives who helps oversee $3.7 trillion in assets at Charles Schwab. “If we can get the two sides to agree to not raise tariffs any further than where they are, that would be positive.”Investors are also looking to gauge the next moves by major central banks. Traders of fed funds futures broadly maintained the amount of easing they expect from the Federal Reserve this year after Wednesday’s release of minutes from the latest meeting. They showed officials began debating how far their current interest-rate cutting campaign should extend even as they agreed to lower rates in response to growing risks to the U.S. economy.Elsewhere, the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF posted its worst three-day performance since March as the lira weakened to a four-month low. Benchmark equity gauges fell across Asia, except for those in Shanghai and Mumbai. Bond yields dropped in Greece after the region’s most-indebted country sold bills at negative yields. Gold held above $1,500 an ounce.The yuan climbed offshore for its biggest gain in almost a month, helped by trade optimism and a stronger-than-expected daily fixing. West Texas crude touched $53 a barrel before paring its advance.Here are some key events coming up this week:On Thursday, minutes from the European Central Bank’s most recent gathering are due.Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday and Saturday for an informal summit.The U.S. releases a key measure of inflation on Thursday.Here are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 Index rose 0.9% at the close of trading in New York.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.4%.The MSCI Emerging Market Index slipped 0.1%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0973.The British pound slumped 0.1% to $1.2208.The Japanese yen depreciated 0.4% to 107.47 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries added five basis points to 1.58%.Britain’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to 0.46%.Germany’s 10-year yield rose five basis points to -0.55%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.1% to $52.66 a barrel.Gold gained 0.1% to $1,506.77 an ounce.\--With assistance from Cormac Mullen and Adam Haigh.To contact the reporters on this story: Vildana Hajric in New York at email@example.com;Robert Brand in Cape Town at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at email@example.com, Brendan Walsh, Todd WhiteFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Intel and Apple stock were early leaders Wednesday, as China trade war news boosted stocks, while Johnson & Johnson dragged on the Dow Jones today.
The U.S. futures surge after reports China is willing to accept an interim trade deal if no more tariffs are imposed.
Now, just one day before the start of trade talks, reports from China are saying the Chinese delegation may cut short its planned stay in Washington and depart on Friday, dimming hopes for a trade deal.
Japanese shares fell on Wednesday as escalating U.S.-China tensions dimmed hopes for a deal in high-level trade talks this week and soured the mood of investors. The U.S. decision cast a pall over high-level trade talks set for Thursday and Friday in the U.S. capital. AGC dropped 2.9% after the glass maker said it expected a 36% drop in annual net profit due to an impairment in its auto glass business.
(Bloomberg) -- The Halloween deadline for Brexit has the qualities investors hate most in market events -- unpredictability and uncertainty.In a month when jitters already abound on global growth and trade, there’s still no deal in sight for the U.K. With Prime Minister Boris Johnson insisting the country plans to exit on Oct. 31 even as EU officials remain unconvinced by proposals put forth so far, it could all come down to the wire. So far, an extension and early general elections have high odds in strategists’ scenarios, which leaves traders of U.K. assets in a wait-and-see mode.Deal or no-deal, it appears U.K. stocks are not expected to come out as winners. Even if the two sides pull off the near-impossible feat of reaching an agreement before the deadline, the big winners would be euro-area stocks, JPMorgan strategists said earlier this week, partially because the exporter-heavy FTSE 100 would be penalized by the soaring pound.Should the U.K. leave the EU without a deal by Oct. 31, sterling may fall “through 1.15 or even 1.10” versus the dollar, levels not seen since 1985, Jefferies wrote in a note yesterday.Faced with extreme scenarios, Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists recommend a volatility play. They forecast the pound will depreciate 15% against the dollar in case of a no-deal Brexit, while moving up 10% in case of a deal. In both situations, they expect European equities to move in the same direction as sterling, and the Euro Stoxx 50 to “realize more than the FX-dampened FTSE in the lead up to and following such Brexit scenarios.”In fact, the risk premium associated with U.K. equities has been rising much faster than that of the euro area since the referendum, and remains in upward trend.Credit Suisse economists shared their view on Monday that an extension of Article 50 is the most likely scenario, but the path to get there could require “increased stress” in the second half of October. They price the odds of a no-deal Brexit at 20% and see a 90% chance of a general election by the end of the year. This continuous political stress could weigh on sterling and U.K. assets, they say.In the end, prolonged uncertainty seems to be the most painful scenario, as it drags on the economy and makes planning difficult, with consequences for the job market as well. Although the unemployment rate is hovering near its lowest since the 70s, U.K. staffing companies warned yesterday that a lack of clarity around Britain’s departure from the European Union has continued to hurt hiring trends. No surprise then that U.K. business confidence has been sinking.That leaves U.K. stocks as a trade for the brave, or for the value hunter. Sustained worries about Brexit have already dragged the FTSE 100 to near its cheapest level relative to the Euro Stoxx 50 in 13 years, prompting strategists at Citi and Pictet to recommend the shares on valuation grounds.In the meantime, Euro Stoxx 50 futures are little changed ahead of the European open, while S&P 500 contracts are up 0.2%.SECTORS IN FOCUS TODAY:Watch European exporters given the deteriorating relations between China and the U.S. over the past 48 hours, with the U.S. cracking down on China over human rights and the National Basketball Association running afoul of Chinese sensibilities.Watch for luxury stocks as markets may position ahead of French luxury conglomerate LVMH reporting third-quarter sales after the close and may give a sense of how much the industry has been affected by the unrest in Hong Kong.COMMENT:“Markets have rallied in 3Q, but not on earnings prospects. Following the sharp cuts to EPS growth estimates, now at -4% y/y in Europe and -3% in the U.S., soft 3Q results may not come as a surprise to investors,” Barclays strategists write in a note. “However, the September market rebound to near ytd highs reduces the cushion, in our view, in particular for cyclicals.”NOTES FROM THE SELL SIDE:Following a sustained period of downgrades and de-rating for the U.K. pub and restaurant sector, there appears to be some confidence returning as reflected in an upturn in consolidation, which may continue to be a catalyst, Jefferies says, initiating on 6 stocks.While DNB, SEB and Nordea remain buy rated, the banks are not estimated to show any “superior outperformance” in the upcoming 3Q results, Handelsbanken says in note.COMPANY NEWS AND M&A:GAM Said to Halt Sales Talks With Suitors Including GeneraliCredit Suisse Weighs Return to U.S. Private Banking After ExitRenault Chairman Wants to Start Search for New CEO: FigaroBoostheat Paris IPO Priced at EU14/Share vs EU14-EU17 RangeDBV Technologies Prices $125M of Shares, Closing Seen Oct. 11Takeaway Third Quarter Orders 41.6 MlnKappahl 4Q Operating Profit Rises to SEK108 MlnCropEnergies 2Q Operating Profit EU28.6 Mln Vs. EU9.6 Mln Y/yBKW Acquired Germany’s LTB Leitungsbau; No Financial DetailsAMG Buys International Specialty Alloys Assets From KennametalBourbon: Takeover Offer Made by A Co. Owned by French BanksTECHNICAL OUTLOOK for Stoxx 600 index:Resistance at 395.1 (July high); 397.9 (June 2018 high)Support at 380.6 (50-DMA); 376.6 (200-DMA); 365.5 (50% Fibo)RSI: 41.6TECHNICAL OUTLOOK for Euro Stoxx 50 index:Resistance at 3,573 (July high); 3,596 (May 2018 high)Support at 3,436 (50-DMA); 3,403 (61.8% Fibo); 3,363 (200-DMA)RSI: 48.2MAIN RESEARCH AND RATING CHANGES:UPGRADES:Cellnex upgraded to outperform at MainFirst; PT 48 EurosDWS raised to overweight at JPMorgan; PT 34 eurosKBC Group raised to buy at Jefferies; PT 70 eurosVeolia raised to overweight at JPMorgan; PT 25.50 eurosDOWNGRADES:HSBC cut to underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 540 penceInwido cut to hold at Handelsbanken; PT 56 kronorNetcompany cut to hold at ABG; PT 280 kronerINITIATIONS:4imprint rated new hold at HSBC; PT 2,875 penceAj Bell rated new sell at Liberum; PT 295 penceAscential rated new buy at HSBC; PT 460 penceAvast rated new buy at HSBC; PT 455 penceBenchmark Holdings rated new buy at HSBC; PT 61 penceBlue Cap rated new buy at GSC Research; PT 23 eurosBlue Prism rated new hold at HSBC; PT 1,100 penceDart Group rated new buy at HSBC; PT 1,050 penceDomino’s Pizza Group rated new underperform at JefferiesEquiniti rated new buy at HSBC; PT 295 penceGreene King reinstated hold at Jefferies; PT 850 penceHargreaves Lansdown re-initiated buy at Liberum; PT 2,125 penceIntegraFin rated new hold at Liberum; PT 390 penceJ D Wetherspoon reinstated hold at Jefferies; PT 1,590 penceKeywords Studios rated new buy at HSBC; PT 1,700 penceMarston’s reinstated underperform at Jefferies; PT 90 penceMitchells & Butlers reinstated buy at Jefferies; PT 530 penceNucleus Financial Group rated new hold at Liberum; PT 150 penceQuilter rated new buy at Liberum; PT 159 penceRWS Holdings rated new hold at HSBC; PT 600 penceRestaurant Group reinstated buy at Jefferies; PT 170 penceRicardo rated new hold at HSBC; PT 630 penceRobert Walters rated new buy at HSBC; PT 615 penceSThree rated new buy at HSBC; PT 350 penceSavills rated new hold at HSBC; PT 920 penceShareholder Value Beteiligungen rated new buy at GSC ResearchSophos rated new hold at HSBC; PT 435 penceMARKETS:MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.6%, Nikkei 225 down 0.6% S&P 500 down 1.6%, Dow down 1.2%, Nasdaq down 1.7%Euro up 0.02% at $1.0959Dollar Index down 0% at 99.13Yen down 0.08% at 107.18Brent down 0.4% at $58/bbl, WTI down 0.4% to $52.4/bblLME 3m Copper up 0.5% at $5703.5/MTGold spot up 0.1% at $1507.3/ozUS 10Yr yield up 1bp at 1.53% ECONOMIC DATA (All times CET):8am: (DE) Aug. Trade Balance ex Ships, prior 8.1b8am: (DE) Aug. Current Account (Seasonally Adjusted), prior 15.1b8:30am: (FR) Sept. Bank of France Ind. Sentiment, est. 99, prior 99To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Msika in London at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Blaise Robinson at email@example.com, Namitha JagadeeshFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.