|Day's Range||7,454.87 - 7,530.16|
|52 Week Range||5,895.12 - 7,851.97|
Based on last week’s price action and the close at 7504.75, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 7551.00.
As of today, the NQ has already moved upward by over 400 points since the end of May. This price advance equaling our expected data range would suggest that the upward price move in the NQ may be very close to ending.
One result is predicting an upward price bias over the next 2 to 4 months whereas the second result is predicting a sideways price result over the same period of time.
Based on Thursday’s action, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index early Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 7521.00.
This means that investors aren’t likely to take the markets much higher until they see the Fed’s rate projections following next week’s meeting. In other words, the next leg up in the stock market hinges upon whether the Fed hints at 2 or 3 rate cuts later this year.
If you’re looking for a reason for the across the board reversals on Tuesday, look no further than position-trimming ahead of next week’s two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Powell took the wind out of the argument for a recession because as you should know by now, the Fed is pretty powerful. With the stock market rallying and believe it or not, the President threatening more tariffs on China, stocks are on a roll again and within striking distance of their all-time highs.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 7521.00.
A shift in FED sentiment towards monetary policy and hopes of progress in trade talks drove the majors in the week.
Investing.com - Stocks soared to their highest levels in the last four weeks, in part because of perceived bad news about the economy that could lead to lower interest rates and hopes that Mexico and the United States can strike a deal over border security.
This week’s stock market performance, in the wake of the on-going trade dispute between the United States and China, and the new tariffs on Mexico, clearly shows that investors are counting on the Fed and to a lesser-extent, the European Central Bank to cut rates or provide additional stimulus measures sooner than previously thought.
On Tuesday, Powell made the jump from telling investors to be “patient” about the direction of interest rates to saying the Fed will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” According to some, it’s not the current economic situation that is causing the worries, but rather the future due to the uncertainty over how the trade dispute against China will play out over the long-run.
Based on the late session price action, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 7291.25.
Investing.com - Stocks tried to rally on Monday after being battered for most of last week, but confidence faded in the late afternoon.
So far, the selling in the stock market has been orderly. I believe this is because the Fed has investors convinced that any slow-down in U.S. economic growth, accompanied by a low-inflation environment will encourage the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut rates. Low interest rates and accommodative Fed policy will eventually right the ship and slow down the selling pressure.
I have been pouring over the longer term charts as we’ve started to see Oil and Gold move in directions that would indicate increased fear throughout the global markets while a contraction in economic activity/oil prices appears to be setting up for another big move.
If the early upside momentum continues then look for buyers to take a run at the Fib level at 7314.75. This is followed by a downtrending Gann angle at 7353.00. If there is no follow-through to the upside then look for sellers to attack yesterday’s low at 7183.25.
Again, don’t try to anticipate the data, let the Treasurys dictate the move. Like I said before, the report contains dated information so it’s possible we’ll see a muted reaction to the news. The futures markets are already pricing in a weaker economy and a Fed rate cut later in the year. Try to avoid getting trapped on the wrong side of this report.