|Day's Range||7,312.6455 - 7,394.9390|
|52 Week Range||5,750.5000 - 7,511.3901|
Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 7390.75. Basically, look for the index to weaken under 7390.75 and strengthen over 7411.00.
U.S. futures contracts are drifting lower during the pre-market session early Friday. The selling pressure is being fueled by a drop in Nvidia stock. Shares of the company fell by 6 percent on Thursday after the company reported better-than-expected earnings and lower-than-expected revenue guidance.
US equity markets closed in the red on August 15 with the PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ) down 1.2%. On a YTD (year-to-date) basis, QQQ has risen 15.5% and looks pretty solid. The so-called “FAANG” stocks—Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Google (GOOG)—have delivered strong YTD returns with the exception of Facebook. The FAANG stocks came under pressure yesterday, but it wasn’t really a panic situation.
Investing.com - U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open on Wednesday, ahead of a number of earnings and economic reports, as investors remained focused on the fallout from Turkey’s financial crisis.
There’s a crisis building in emerging market currencies. The Turkish lira, Iranian rial, and Indian rupee have fallen to an all-time low against the US dollar. The Russian ruble also fell to a two-year low against the US dollar. In Iran’s case, US sanctions and an overall economic slowdown took a toll on the currency. President Trump’s tweet about doubling the Section 232 tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum products added fire to the already plunging Turkish lira.
On Wednesday morning, global markets are again under pressure on new episodes of U.S. trade conflicts. Again, at the epicenter of the fall are the Asian exchanges as MSCI lost 0.8% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell by 1%. US Futures trade lower.
Investors are playing a cat-and-mouse game with the Turkish Lira because no one is certain how the situation will play out over the short-term.
Based on the current price, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 7442.00.
Markets can get a respite from the rally today or for a few days at best, but the worst is still ahead as we could see the sale-off on stock and bonds markets. The Turkish lira has stabilized near 6.5 per dollar after the country’s central bank had announced the measures to maintain liquidity.
China posted weaker-than-expected economic numbers across the board in data just released. Fixed Income Investment came in at 5.5%, down from 6.0% and below a 6.0% forecast. Industrial Production was 6.0%, below the 6.3% estimate, but matching the previous month. Retail Sales fell to 8.8% from 9.0%, also coming in under the 9.2% forecast. Finally, the Unemployment Rate rose to 5.1% from 4.8%.
Based on the short-term price action, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 7348.25.
Weighing on equities were worries of financial and currency turmoil in Turkey as well as continued tariff retaliation between the United States and China. U.S. government debt yields plunged on Friday as global credit contagion fears surrounding Turkey encouraged asset managers to aggressively move money into relatively safer assets. Consumer prices continued to rise in July, indicating a gradual increase in inflation pressures and suggesting further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The Turkish Lira collapsed to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar Friday even as Turkey’s leader, President Recep Erdogan downplayed the concerns, telling Turks “we have our God.”
Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index will be determined by trader reaction to a steep uptrending Gann angle at 7454.75 and a downtrending Gann angle at 7434.00.
Financial markets rise on positive sentiments about earnings and China’s fiscal stimulus. That pushed down the demand for USD, but more likely it is just a step back before the jump.
We’re approaching the end of the second-quarter earnings season, which has yielded mixed results. Among the FAANG stocks, Facebook (FB) and Netflix (NFLX) disappointed, and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) posted better-than-expected results. The broader markets have also been cruising along, with the PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ) up 16.7% for the year based on its August 6 closing price.
Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 7444.00. Watch the price action and read the order flow at 7444.00 all session. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buyers or sellers are in control.
The demand for the dollar provoked by fears of new US sanctions against a number of countries and expanding trade conflict with China. Those concerns pushed the American currency close to the upper edge of the trading range since April.
Economic data is on the quieter side for the week ahead, leaving the markets to focus on the RBA, RBNZ and Trump, trade wars a risk appetite killer.
In U.S. economic news on Friday, the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs last month. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report showed activity in the services sector slowed more than expected in July. The U.S. trade deficit widened in June for the first time in four months as exports fell and imports grew. Trade gaps with China, Mexico and Canada all increased. On Friday, China’s Ministry of Commerce said China is preparing to retaliate in the escalating trade war with tariffs on about $60 billion worth of U.S. goods.
Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 7391.25 and 7348.25.
Since Tesla (TSLA) released its second-quarter earnings yesterday, the stock has been consistently rising. Today at 3:00 PM EST, Tesla stock was trading at $344.60, with ~14.6% gains for the session. Among other auto companies (XLY), General Motors (GM) rose 1.3% while Ford (F) and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) were up 0.2% and 2.4%, respectively.
In my opinion, expectations of rising interest rates are starting to make stocks a less-attractive investment. So the allocation process of moving money from stocks to Treasurys is just beginning and it’s likely to continue until investors have made the adjustments to their portfolios that bring them to a comfort level. Blaming the tariffs is just noise at this time.
Global stocks fall under the pressure on the news that Trump is considering 25% tariffs on Chinese goods worth $200 billion against 10% that are being discussed now.
Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 7243.00. All eyes will be on trader reaction to 7166.75 because taking out this level with conviction could trigger the start of an acceleration to the downside with 6956.00 the next major objective.
If you’re looking to time volatility today then watch the markets at 1230 GMT with the release of the Personal Spending number, at 1400 GMT when the Consumer Confidence Number comes out and about 20:00 GMT when Apple releases its reports.