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U.S. government bond prices jumped Friday after a tariff fight between the U.S. and China intensified. Yields fell after the Trump administration said it would go ahead with a planned imposition of tariffs on $50 billion of imports from China. Officials in China said they would retaliate immediately, raising the potential for a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
Yield curve flattest since 2007Reignited fears of a trade war between the U.S. and China contributed to a move to the perceived safety of government paper. U.S. government bonds found support Friday, extending a yield decline for Treasurys as an escalating trade spat between the U.S. and China contributed to a move to the perceived safety of government paper. Short-dated yields, on the other hand, were elevated for the week after the Federal Reserve signaled its intentions to raise rates four times this year.
Speculators' net bearish bets on U.S. 10-year Treasury note futures fell earlier this week to a two-month low in advance of the Federal Reserve's widely expected decision to U.S. raise interest rates, ...
One thing we could possibly see today is a divergence in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) gets hit harder than the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP), in part because more of the big industrial stocks that could get hurt by China’s response to U.S. tariffs reside in the $DJI. In addition, investors could conceivably gravitate back toward small-cap stocks that many believe might suffer less of an impact from possible trade wars. It isn’t just the big industrial stocks that could feel heat from worsening trade relations with the Asian giant.
Trade with China appears to be back on the market’s menu today, and the post-meal fortune doesn’t look too positive for stocks. Going into Friday’s session, focus turned toward the U.S. decision to impose new 25% tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese products. Stocks fell in pre-market trading, following the path of most European and Asian markets.
U.S. government debt prices rose on the final trading day of the week, as investors weighed an announcement by the Trump administration to possibly implement a 25 percent tariff on up to $50 billion in Chinese imports. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at around 2.91 percent at 8:40 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped to 3.029 percent. In a statement Friday, President Donald Trump said the measures would affect Chinese goods "that contain industrially significant technologies," without specifying those products.
The U.S. government and American corporations don’t appear to be locking in low borrowing costs as the Federal Reserve dials up interest rates, a sign that financial markets aren’t anticipating rates drifting much higher from where they presently sit
U.S. stocks stabilized Thursday, suggesting investors are coming to terms with central banks’ plans to gradually leave behind a decade of unprecedented monetary stimulus. After the Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that U.S. interest rates will likely go up four times in 2018—instead of three, as had been widely believed—the European Central Bank said Thursday it would end its bond-buying program in December. “The Fed and the ECB and other central banks have taken the market to places they’ve never been before, and now they want to gently nudge it back to somewhere closer to where it was in the past,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co.
Wall Street opened lower on Friday after US President Donald Trump’s move to slap fresh tariffs on Chinese products revived fears of a full-blown trade war. Trump on Friday launched new 25 per cent tariffs ...
Bond yields fell early Thursday after the ECB’s meeting. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note then pared declines, before drifting lower again after data showed retail sales rose more than expected in May and that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected. Stephen Voss for The Wall Street Journal The U.S. Treasury Building in Washington. In comparison, the ECB’s decision not to raise interest rates until mid-2019 struck many analysts as dovish.
If recent data is any indication, the U.S. is on track to reap a sterling quarter of growth, but that hasn’t stopped the yield curve from flattening toward an inversion, a precursor to a recession. Bond investors appear skeptical that this bump in growth can persist as longer-dated yields continue to fall this week. An inversion of the curve, when short-dated yields edge above long-dated ones, has preceded every recession since World War II.
Treasury yields slipped Thursday after the European Central Bank issued a timetable for the end of its easy-money policies. This follows the Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to lift interest rates, as expected. The U.S. central bank also signaled that it would tighten monetary policy at a slightly faster clip than had previously been anticipated, with the domestic economy growing steadily.
Bloomberg Mike McGlone examines the big bet on 10-year Treasury note futures through options. He speaks with Bloomberg's Abigail Doolittle on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell held a more hawkish press conference on Wednesday, with the central bank hiking interest rates by 0.25%, marking the second rate hike this year. The Fed's decision sent the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to 3% briefly at about 2:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The Fed raised its estimates for the pace of growth and inflation in the U.S. economy while simultaneously lowering unemployment estimates.
Treasury yields on Thursday extended their decline as the European Central Bank laid out a schedule for paring back is asset-purchase program. The ECB indicated that it would end in December and signaled that it would join the Federal Reserve in tightening its benchmark interest rates at least until the summer of 2019. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell 3.8 basis points to 2.941%, while the 30-year bond yield slipped 4.8 basis points to 3.054%.
The European Central Bank cautiously announced the end of its quantitative easing program on Thursday and said it would keep interest rates at ultralow level at least until next summer, thereby giving the dollar all the fuel it needs for a year-long rate divergence rally.
The European Central Bank outlined plans to end its massive stimulus program by the end of the year, but said it would hold rates low until summer 2019. The Fed announced a rate hike of 25 basis points on Wednesday and said there could be two more before the end of the year. U.S. government debt yields dropped Thursday morning after the European Central Bank said it would hold interest rates low at least until summer 2019.
Asian stocks slumped Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate and said it would pick up the pace of future increases. South Korea's market benchmark tumbled 1.6 percent on the ...
Investors have heard from two of the world’s most important central banks this week and the contrast is telling. , the throttle of monetary policy is opening up as fiscal stimulus shows more signs of masking typical late-cycle economy dynamics. This is illustrated by the tension in a bond market that thinks the next recession is not too far away and thus keeps the 10-year Treasury yield below 3 per cent.
U.S. government bond prices dropped Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time this year and penciled in two more increases this year. Yields rose after Fed officials raised their estimates for the pace of growth and inflation this year while also lowering their estimate for the unemployment rate. Inflation is a threat to the purchasing power of bonds fixed interest and principal payments, while faster growth and lower unemployment can prompt the Fed to raise interest rates.
Paul Tudor Jones, a hedge-fund luminary, said he’s expecting bond yields and stocks to rise in tandem toward the end of 2018. “I think you’ll see rates go up and stocks go up in tandem at the end of the year,” Jones told CNBC Tuesday morning. “I can see things getting crazy particularly at year-end after the midterm elections,” Jones said, referring to the potential for U.S. equities to rally after key notes in November.
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Jun.14 -- Bloomberg Mike McGlone examines the big bet on 10-year Treasury note futures through options. He speaks with Bloomberg's Abigail Doolittle on "Bloomberg Markets."