|Day's Range||2.4180 - 2.4820|
|52 Week Range||2.4180 - 3.2480|
Nike led the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower as bond investors sent a clear signal they expect the economic expansion to end.
The federal government ran a budget deficit of $234 billion in February, the Treasury Department reported on Friday, the biggest monthly shortfall on record.
Two of the Federal Reserve's most dovish officials on Friday both shied away from calling for the central bank to cut interest rates. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday, said the central bank may have tightened "a little bit too far" but didn't call for reversing course. Earlier,Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said only that he thinks the Fed is close to a neutral policy stance and he hoped the central bank hadn't pushed its benchmark Fed funds rate up to a level that was causing the economy to contract. Both said they supported the Fed decision this week to hold interest rates steady.
A closely watched measure of the U.S. Treasury yield curve binverted Friday, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipping below the 3-month yield, stoking investor worries over a potential recession.
Speculators' net bearish bets on U.S. 10-year Treasury note futures fell earlier this week before the Federal Reserve signaled it would not raise interest rates in 2019, according to Commodity Futures ...
In an uncanny replay of what happened three years ago, Federal Reserve officials have been forced to revise their outlook on where the economy is going
A closely watched measure of the yield curve inverted Friday, underlining worries about economic growth and rattling the stock market. But investors might be pushing the panic button a bit prematurely.
A macro hedge fund says investors should monitor the growing number of yield curve inversions in the U.S. Treasurys market
LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) - Manufacturers in Europe, Japan and the United States suffered in March as surveys showed trade tensions had left their mark on factory output, a setback for hopes the global economy might be turning the corner on its slowdown. In Japan, manufacturing output shrank the most in almost three years, hurt by China's economic slowdown.
The falling 30-year mortgage rate could reverse and hit 6% in the second half of next year despite big constraints on demand among home buyers.
For the first time since 2007, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below the yield on 3-month Treasury bills briefly on Friday morning. According to the San Francisco Fed, each of the nine U.S. recessions that have occurred since 1955 came between six months and 24 months after a an inversion in the yield curve of two-year and 10-year Treasury yields. Although this particular yield curve remained positive Friday, the spread between two-year and 10-year Treasuries dropped to just 10 basis points.
The yield curve as measured by the spread between the 3-month Treasury bill and the 10-year note inverted for the first time since 2007, following a sharp rally in longer-dated notes. The spread between the two maturities stood at around negative 3 basis points. On Friday, the 10-year note yield fell nearly 10 basis points to 2.434%, while the 3-month bill was down a single basis point to 2.462%, Tradeweb data show. Bond prices move inversely to yields. The last nine times the yield curve has inverted, a recession has followed, according to the San Francisco Fed.
The spread between the three-month Treasury bill yield and the 10-year note yield narrowed to a fresh 12-year low on Friday morning, less than 1 basis point above parity, following the Federal Reserve's decision to cease tightening monetary policy and as soft German manufacturing data added to fears about the slowdown in global growth. A narrower spread between the 3-month and 10-year yields indicates increased market expectations of a recession. The 3-month and 10-year spread is the Fed's preferred measure of the Treasury yield curve as it shows the strongest historical correlation between curve inversion and a forthcoming recession.
German 10-year bond yields dived below zero while European shares and the euro fell on Friday after grim data from the continent fueled fears of a global economic slowdown following this week's dovish turn by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Yields on Germany's 10-year government bond turned negative for the first time since October 2016 after data showed manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in March, compounding worries that trade disputes are exacerbating a slowdown in Europe's biggest economy. Equities in Paris tumbled 0.8 percent while London's FTSE dropped 1 percent.
Core euro zone bond yields struggled to find uplift from the 2-1/2 year lows hit on Thursday after the Fed became the second major central bank to adopt a more dovish stance, signalling that central banks are looking to keep monetary conditions easy. Bond yields fell across developed markets after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday brought its three-year drive to tighten monetary policy to an end. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields held close to 2.5 percent in early trade on Friday, while Japanese government bond (JGB) yields plunged to their lowest since November 2016.
The fall in long-term debt yields sparked an inversion of the Treasury curve as yield on 3-month debt exceeded yield on 10-year debt.
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Treasury yields bounce off intraday lows Thursday, keeping their weekly decline intact as bond investors reel from a one-two punch of robust economic data and a stock-market surge.
The spread between the three-month Treasury bill yield and the 10-year note yield shrank to its narrowest level since August 2007 on Thursday in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision to cease tightening monetary policy as the American economy shows signs of contraction. The three-month and 10-year spread is the Fed's preferred measure of the Treasury yield curve as it shows the strongest historical correlation between curve inversion and forthcoming recession. The last time the three-month to 10-year yield curve inverted - when the spread fell below zero basis points - was in August 2007, shortly before the low in spreads trumped on Thursday.
With the U.S. 10-year yield dipping below 2.50 percent, the gap between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields on Thursday shrank to its narrowest point since 2007. The Fed’s revised outlook was a dead weight on that curve, pushing it from more than 15 basis points early on Wednesday to within four basis points of zero. An inverted curve is widely considered to be an accurate predictor of an economic slump, and BMO Capital Markets is among those forecasting that the measure is likely to drop below zero.
Just a few months ago, rising rates were bearing down on everyone from home buyers to stock investors after the Federal Reserve put through seven quarter-point increases in 2017 and 2018. This year, the Fed has changed course. In January, it opened the door to a "patient" approach to further rate increases.
Even for a bond market bracing for an accommodative Federal Reserve, policy makers’ moves on Wednesday were a stunner, raising the specter of recession.
President Trump believes that the economy would have grown 4%, instead of 3.1% if the Federal Reserve did not raise rates during 2018. Yahoo Finance’s Brian Cheung shares the latest with Alexis Christoforous.
Kate Warne, Edward Jones Investment Strategist, says that if we see dramatically higher inflation, it could “force the Fed to become less patient and potentially raise interest rates.” Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous speaks to her, Brian Sozzi and Jared Blikre.