|Day's Range||2.4210 - 2.4480|
|52 Week Range||2.3770 - 3.2480|
Technically speaking, the S&P 500 has weathered an aggressive late-month market downdraft, narrowly maintaining major support, writes Michael Ashbaugh.
The falling 30-year mortgage rate could reverse and hit 6% in the second half of next year despite big constraints on demand among home buyers.
U.S. Treasurys on Tuesday face modest selling, pushing yields higher, as worries about world-wide economic contraction, which had sparked buying in government debt, appears to be on hold.
DEEP DIVE If you are looking for investment income, times are tough. Interest rates remain very low and long-term rates fell significantly after the Federal Reserve signaled it won’t raise rates anymore this year.
Tony Dwyer, chief U.S. markets strategist for Canaccord Genuity, is urging investors to view a yield curve inversion as an opportunity rather than a death knell.
Benchmark U.S. Treasury debt yields fell to their lowest since late 2017 on Monday and a gauge of world stocks dropped for a second straight session on persistent concerns over global economic growth. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 2.4 percent for the first time since December 2017. Wall Street's main indexes ended little changed during a choppy session after falling sharply on Friday.
A rally by U.S. Treasurys continued Monday, sending the yield on the 10-year note to its lowest level since December 2017 and pushing the spread between that rate and the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill further into negative territory amid worries over economic growth.
A closely watched measure of the yield curve inverted Friday, underlining worries about economic growth and rattling the stock market. But investors might be pushing the panic button a bit prematurely.
Never mind the alarm bell sounded by one of Wall Street’s most accurate recession indicators, Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners says the Federal Reserve will revert to its old hawkish ways before the end of 2019.
FT subscribers can click here to receive Market Forces every day by email. More pressing on the minds of investors is the prospect of the best start to the year for global equities since 2012 being overshadowed. Also of note, the policy sensitive two-year note yield fell below the Federal funds floor of 2.25 per cent today, while the three-year note sits under 2.2 per cent.
S&P 500 e-mini futures turned flat, after rising slightly, on Sunday after U.S. Attorney General William Barr said Special Counsel Robert Mueller had found no evidence of collusion between President Donald ...
Nike led the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower as bond investors sent a clear signal they expect the economic expansion to end.
A macro hedge fund says investors should monitor the growing number of yield curve inversions in the U.S. Treasurys market
The federal government ran a budget deficit of $234 billion in February, the Treasury Department reported on Friday, the biggest monthly shortfall on record.
Two of the Federal Reserve's most dovish officials on Friday both shied away from calling for the central bank to cut interest rates. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday, said the central bank may have tightened "a little bit too far" but didn't call for reversing course. Earlier,Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said only that he thinks the Fed is close to a neutral policy stance and he hoped the central bank hadn't pushed its benchmark Fed funds rate up to a level that was causing the economy to contract. Both said they supported the Fed decision this week to hold interest rates steady.
A closely watched measure of the U.S. Treasury yield curve binverted Friday, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipping below the 3-month yield, stoking investor worries over a potential recession.
Speculators' net bearish bets on U.S. 10-year Treasury note futures fell earlier this week before the Federal Reserve signaled it would not raise interest rates in 2019, according to Commodity Futures ...
In an uncanny replay of what happened three years ago, Federal Reserve officials have been forced to revise their outlook on where the economy is going
LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) - Manufacturers in Europe, Japan and the United States suffered in March as surveys showed trade tensions had left their mark on factory output, a setback for hopes the global economy might be turning the corner on its slowdown. In Japan, manufacturing output shrank the most in almost three years, hurt by China's economic slowdown.
For the first time since 2007, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below the yield on 3-month Treasury bills briefly on Friday morning. According to the San Francisco Fed, each of the nine U.S. recessions that have occurred since 1955 came between six months and 24 months after a an inversion in the yield curve of two-year and 10-year Treasury yields. Although this particular yield curve remained positive Friday, the spread between two-year and 10-year Treasuries dropped to just 10 basis points.
The yield curve as measured by the spread between the 3-month Treasury bill and the 10-year note inverted for the first time since 2007, following a sharp rally in longer-dated notes. The spread between the two maturities stood at around negative 3 basis points. On Friday, the 10-year note yield fell nearly 10 basis points to 2.434%, while the 3-month bill was down a single basis point to 2.462%, Tradeweb data show. Bond prices move inversely to yields. The last nine times the yield curve has inverted, a recession has followed, according to the San Francisco Fed.
Mona Mahajan, Allianz Global Investors U.S. Investment Strategist, says that “there’s no signal of a recession,” even though the inverted yield curve is “worrisome.” Brian Levitt, OppenheimerFunds Senior Investment Strategist, adds that “this year we have much slower growth,” but “much better policy” with the Federal Reserve backing off progress happening on trade, creating a “much better market environment.” Yahoo Finance's Alexis Christoforous speaks to Mahajan, Levitt, Brian Sozzi and Scott Gamm.
With the Mueller investigation over, President Trump is set to focus on the economy. Yahoo Finance’s Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer tells Alexis that you “can’t argue against the strength in the U.S. economy generally speaking.”
President Trump believes that the economy would have grown 4%, instead of 3.1% if the Federal Reserve did not raise rates during 2018. Yahoo Finance’s Brian Cheung shares the latest with Alexis Christoforous.