|Day's Range||2.0140 - 2.0420|
|52 Week Range||1.9750 - 3.2480|
Too little attention is being paid to potential for rapid pace of job losses, says Sheila Bair, the ex-head of the FDIC
Some ten years since the 2008-09 U.S. housing bubble, which sparked a global financial crisis, worries about the health of the global housing market persist.
The Federal Reserve’s investor-friendly stance on interest rates has infused this market with a serious dose of optimism. The Financial Samurai blog has some ideas on how to play it.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell with testify to Congress on July 10 and 11 about interest-rate policy, two congressional committees announced Monday. The House Financial Services panel will go first, followed by the Senate Banking Committee the following day. Powell has made a concerted effort to be available to brief members of Congress behind closed doors about the economic outlook, and is often seen by reporters walking in the hallways of the Capitol.
Treasury yields slip on Monday as traders await President Donald Trump’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, amid hopes that their get-together could stave off a further escalation of a U.S-China trade clash.
Bond yields have room to catch up with inflation expectations, and that could spell pain for bond-market bulls, says CIBC’s Ian Pollick.
President Donald Trump on Monday said the Federal Reserve is acting ‘like a stubborn child’ for not cutting interest rates last week.
Gold is trading higher for the fifth day amid a weak dollar and a possible rate cut by the fed in its FOMC meeting this July.
Market jitters ease in the early part of the day. There’s been no chatter to get the markets going, but it’s early and things could escalate rapidly…
I place the odds of a meeting between Trump and Xi taking place at 50/50, and if it does take place, it’s another 50/50 that they’ll reach any substantive agreement. Look for stocks to give back some of last week’s gains if the meeting is cancelled and to rally if they agree to renewed trade talks.
DEEP DIVE Dividend stocks, which have performed well this year, may get another boost if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. With lower rates, income-seeking investors could use dividend stocks more than ever, and growth investors may also be interested because declining low interest rates prop up prices of higher-yielding stocks.
Gold traders are going to continue to take their cues from the direction of Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar. The best chance for another spike to the upside will be on Tuesday when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks.
Although central bank policymakers decided to leave rates unchanged in June, investors became convinced it was poised to cut rates in July and September when the Federal Open Market Committee changed the language in previous monetary policy statements.
June 20: The Conference Board’s U.S. leading economic indicator (LEI) index was reported unchanged on a month-over-month basis in May (the median forecast was 0.1%) following 0.1% in April, 0.2% in March, 0.2% in February, no change in January, 0.2% in December, 0.1% in November, and a negative 0.1% in October. The following commentary from the Conference Board was included in the press release, and it is consistent with our own near-term view. “The U.S. LEI was unchanged in May, following three consecutive increases.
Consumer debt is growing to worrisome levels. Ben Mohr, senior research analyst of fixed income at investment consultant Marquette Associates, calculated that total U.S. consumer debt hit $14 trillion in the first quarter of 2019, surpassing the roughly $13 trillion of leverage accumulated in credit cards, auto loans and mortgages and other debt back in 2008, when those souring loans and securities pegged to them helped to send global markets into a tailspin (see attached chart). Mohr told MarketWatch that the increase in student loans — often cited as a source of consternation for economists and strategists — saw a notable increase.
Speculators increased their net bearish bets on U.S. 10-year Treasury note futures earlier this week prior to the Federal Reserve's signal of possibly lower interest rates, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The amount of speculators' bearish or short positions in 10-year Treasury futures exceeded bullish or long positions by 402,984 contracts on June 18, according to the CFTC's latest Commitments of Traders data.
Treasury yields rise Friday after news reports said President Donald Trump declined to launch military strikes against Iran in retaliation for shooting down a U.S. drone.
Sales of previously-owned homes snapped a two-month losing streak and rebounded smartly in May, but are still well below year-ago levels and conditions are still tough for would-be buyers.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says a rate cut this week would have provided insurance against weaker inflation and a slowing economy.
Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard on Friday said that "important downside risks" have emerged over the past few weeks. Given these concerns, "basic principles of risk management" in the current environment of low interest rates "would argue for softening the expected path of policy," Brainard said, in brief remarks at a Cleveland Fed policy summit in Cincinnati. Brainard said one reason for caution in softening the path of policy is the risk of building financial market imbalances, "such as currently elevated levels of risky corporate debt." However, Brainard said she would rather address financial imbalances by using macroprudential tools than by using interest-rate policy. She suggested the Fed should activate the Fed's countercyclical capital buffer, make rigorous use of stress tests and beef-up monitoring of leveraged lending.
A few analysts believe that as the market digested the Fed's decision and statement on Wednesday, some have pushed back on the overall market forecasts of three to four rate cuts. "For some people, the Fed seems like it's not rushing to cut," said Stan Shipley, fixed-income strategist at Evercore ISI in New York. In Friday's research note it said: "The economy hasn't gone off the rails, but the conductors are getting a bit jittery." That said, the market is still positioned for lower yields going forward, and analysts said it is not wise to bet against the Fed. The Fed on Wednesday set the stage for interest rate cuts starting next month, saying it is ready to counter growing global and domestic economic risks amid rising trade tensions and weak inflation.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Friday he advocated for a half a percentage point interest rate cut this week. In an essay published on his bank's website, Kashkari said he also wanted the Fed to commit not to raise rates again until core inflation reaches the 2% target. "I believe an aggressive policy action...is required to re-anchor inflation expectations at our target," Kashkari said. The FOMC voted 9-1 to hold rates steady this week, with Kashkari not voting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the case for a rate cut was increasing but the committee wanted to see more data before pulling the trigger. Kashkari will be a voting FOMC member next year.
Yahoo Finance's Adam Shapiro and Julie Hyman are joined by Yousef Abassi, director of U.S. Institutional Equities and Global Market Strategist at INTL FCStone, and Girard CIO Timothy Chubb to break down President Trump's shots at the Fed, the ongoing tariff threat, and other opportunities in the market, including in financials.