|Day's Range||2.8770 - 2.9000|
|52 Week Range||2.3670 - 3.2480|
The stock market has been predictably unpredictable in 2018. While those words pretty much apply to every year, of course, this one — with a steady diet of explosive moves both north and south — has been particularly difficult to handicap.
This year many technical and macro warning signs were ignored by investors and Wall Street alike. Wall Street analysts kept raising price targets on key stocks such as Apple (AAPL) and telling investors to buy every dip. Only now are they downgrading those same stocks by 20%-25% from where they were in September.
Hedge funds and other speculative investors are paring futures bets against the 10-year Treasury note, backing away from one of this year’s most-popular trades. Speculators have trimmed their bets on falling U.S. government bond prices and higher yields. An investor taking a short position in Treasury bond futures sells a contract, intending to profit by buying it back later at a lower price or delivering securities that could be sold at a lower price.
Treasury yields were on the decline Friday after softer economic data in China perked up concerns around the global economy’s health.
Speculators' net bearish bets on U.S. 10-year Treasury note futures rose earlier this week after longer-dated yields fell to their lowest levels since late August, according to Commodity Futures Trading ...
Rates for home loans fell again, touching a 3-month low, even as other affirmations of buyer demand resurfaced in the housing market.
U.S. government debt prices rose on Friday as traders digested fresh economic data out of China and looked ahead to next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell steeply to 2.875 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dropped to 3.136 percent. News of the disappointing figures comes as China and the U.S. try to negotiate a trade deal within a 90-day tariffs truce.
The risk of a U.S. recession in the next two years has risen to 40 percent, according to a Reuters poll of economists who also found a significant shift in expectations toward fewer Federal Reserve interest rate rises next year. What has fueled concerns of a downturn is the flattening of the U.S. yield curve - with the spread between two- and 10-year note yields falling to less than 10 basis points, the smallest gap since the run-up to the last U.S. recession. A yield curve inversion has preceded almost all recessions over the last half-century.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold a two-day meeting on December 18-19. It is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points, however, the focus for investors will be on the number of rate hikes protected for next year. Expectations for further rate hikes in 2019 have tempered lately due to fears of weakening U.S. economic growth.
SINGAPORE (AP) — Asian markets tumbled on Friday after China reported weaker-than-expected economic data, stirring up worries about the state of the world's second largest economy.
Some economists expect the Fed to skip an interest rate hike in December. Though, a pause may call the Fed's credibility into question.
Prominent short seller Jim Chanos says he's concerned about the fragility of the stock market in response to increases in interest rates. "One of the things that worries me is just how fragile we seem to be to small rises in interest rates," Chanos told CNBC's Sarah Eisen. While government debt rates rallied for much of 2018 — sometimes sharply — borrowing costs are still far below historical norms.
BOND REPORT Treasury yields struggled for direction Thursday as traders digested remarks by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. The 10-year Treasury note yield (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) was up 0.4 basis point to 2.
Some investors are betting on an end to the bond market’s pain after concerns around the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes sparked a selloff that sent the 10-year Treasury yield to a seven-year high in November. “Ten-year Treasury yields may have peaked for this cycle at 3.25%. Tighter central bank monetary policy, a strong dollar and weaker global growth may dampen growth and inflation prospects in 2019, limiting the rise in bond yields,” wrote Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist for Schwab Center for Financial Research.
U.S. government debt prices rose on Thursday as investors awaited developments in the U.S.-Sino trade dispute.
Two months ago, the uptick in inflation was topping out. Now data show price pressures are indeed abating
U.S. stocks couldn't hang on to a big gain Wednesday, but they still finished broadly higher as technology and health care companies rose. Stocks initially rallied after the Wall Street Journal reported that China's government could make changes to its "Made in China 2025" economic development plan. "Any time you get some semblance of good news on trade, you've had this tendency to see a pretty sharp rally," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab.
Treasury yields rose Wednesday after investors cut back buying of Treasurys as stocks and Italian government debt surged on fading geopolitical jitters.
* Trump optimism on U.S.-China trade talks lifts yields * Easing Brexit tension helps risk assets * Tame U.S. CPI data dampens rate hike view * U.S. 10-year Treasury note auction shows tepid demand (Adds comment, updates prices, 10-year note auction results) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday on signs of progress in U.S.-China trade discussions and easing tensions on Britain's exit from the European Union after UK Prime Minister Theresa May looked to have garnered enough support to survive a no-confidence vote. U.S. yields rose after steep declines last week amid a slew of geopolitical headlines. In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Trump said on Tuesday China was buying a "tremendous amount" of U.S. soybeans, and bilateral talks were underway by phone, with more meetings likely between both countries.
U.S. borrowers filed the most loan requests to buy a home and to refinance one in two months as most lending costs declined to their lowest levels since September, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. Interest rates on 30-year, fixed-rate "conforming" mortgages with balances of $453,100 or less averaged 4.96 percent last week, the lowest level since the week of Sept. 28. The weekly drop in the 30-year conforming mortgage rate was the steepest since March 2017.
U.S. government debt yields held steady on Wednesday after a government report showed no change to consumer prices across the month of November. The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index was unchanged last month on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in October. Core CPI, which does not include volatile energy or food prices, increased 0.2 percent in November and is up 2.2 percent in the past 12 months.
US stocks advanced on Wednesday as signs of progress in trade talks between Washington and China lifted sentiment on Wall Street, but stocks ended well below their session highs. The S&P 500 closed 0.6 ...
The dollar rose for a third consecutive day on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields rose before a Federal Reserve meeting where it is widely expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year. The yuan strengthened on Tuesday on news that Beijing and Washington were discussing the next steps in their trade talks.
With all the volatility in the markets recently, Partner-in-Charge Tim Speiss of EisnerAmper says a lot of investors are largely putting their money in equities and fixed income bonds and diversifying their portfolios. Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous speaks to Speiss.
Investors need to see Wall Street “finish the day on the highs it starts at” so they feel more comfortable buying, says Alicia Levine, the Chief Strategist at BNY Mellon Investment Management. She spoke with Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous.