|Day's Range||2.85 - 2.88|
|52 Week Range||2.03 - 3.12|
NEW YORK (AP) — Big gains for banks and transportation companies like airlines and railroads took U.S. stock indexes slightly higher Wednesday. Other parts of the market didn't move much.
U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Wednesday with the yield curve remaining near its flattest in nearly 11 years as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stayed on message about a healthy economy ...
The U.S. 10-year has been trading in an unusually tight range for 14 sessions, a sign it may be ready to break out in one direction or other. In five prior periods since 2013 where yields traded on a narrow band of 12.6 basis points or less, the 10-year yield broke higher in four of those five instances. The 10-year is the U.S. benchmark rate used to price a variety of business and consumer loans, including home mortgages.
The investing gurus at Pimco are expecting the Federal Reserve to pause its rate hike cycle in order to avoid a lasting inversion of the yield curve
Treasury yields fell slightly Wednesday ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s second day of testimony at Capitol Hill.
An inverted yield curve may not be a dreaded harbinger of doom for the bull market, according to Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Research, who believes that stocks have awhile to go before worrying about unseemly yield curves or even a recession. An inverted yield curve, where long-term yields such as the 10-year Treasury yield drop below their shorter-term peers, symbolizes a lack of confidence in the economy. It has also emerged as a closely watched early warning signal for economic trouble, particularly in the wake of research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve that every U.S. recession in the past 60 years was preceded by an inverted yield curve.
The dollar rose towards a one-year high on Wednesday in the wake of bullish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about the strength of the U.S. economy. In his congressional testimony on Tuesday, Powell said he believed the United States was on course for years more of steady growth, and he played down the risks to the U.S. economy of an escalating trade conflict. "The recent dollar moves has been a bit baffling and the only reason may be short term flows and sentiment are supporting the greenback," said Richard Falkenhall, a senior currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.
SINGAPORE (AP) — Asian markets climbed higher on Wednesday as a sweep of positive news from Wall Street and beyond boosted confidence in the U.S. economy.
U.S. government bond prices crept lower Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell presented a positive assessment of the U.S. economy and said the central bank remains on track to gradually raise interest rates. Fed funds futures, which investors use to bet on the direction of interest-rate policy, late Tuesday showed a 64% probability that Fed officials will raise rates at least two more times this year, up from 59% a week ago, according to CME Group data.
* U.S. yield curve retests flattest level in over a decade * U.S. two-year yield climbs to highest in nearly 10 years * Fed's Powell sees more jobs growth, tame inflation * Futures imply traders see 89 pct chance of Sept rate hike (Recasts lead, updates market action, adds quote) By Richard Leong NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. two-year Treasury yield rose on Tuesday to its highest level in nearly a decade, with the yield curve at its flattest in nearly 11 years, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upbeat remarks on the economy supported traders' view of more rate hikes. Powell, in testimony about the economy and monetary policy before a Senate panel, said: "With appropriate monetary policy, the job market will remain strong and inflation will stay near 2 percent over the next several years." Powell downplayed the current friction between the Trump administration and major U.S. trade partners as a risk to business and consumer activities.
Emerging markets have been struggling with rising global interest rates and stronger dollar, among other bearish factors, in 2018. But you can also add ‘hot money’ inflows to the list, as investments that could reverse quickly in times of trouble, bringing even more downside risk to emerging-market assets, according to economists at the Institute of International Finance.
Fears of a trade war between the U.S. and its trading partners have distracted investors from inflation concerns and other bearish forces that once threatened to send Treasury yields higher earlier this year.
* Fed's Powell sees more jobs growth, tame inflation * Futures imply traders see 89 pct chance of Sept rate hike (Updates market action after Powell's speech) By Richard Leong NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday, with the two-year yield hovering near a decade high as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was upbeat on the economy, supporting traders' view of further rate increases from the U.S. central bank. Powell, in testimony about the economy and monetary policy before a Senate panel, said: "With appropriate monetary policy, the job market will remain strong and inflation will stay near 2 percent over the next several years." Powell downplayed the current friction between the Trump administration and major U.S. trade partners as a risk to business and consumer activities.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will begin his first of two days of testimony to lawmakers on Capitol Hill Tuesday in Washington, but while tech stocks have driven the Nasdaq to fresh record highs, and the economy looks to record its best quarterly growth rate in nearly four years, he's still likely to express at least some concern for one of the market's most-trusted prognosticators: the shaped of the so-called yield curve. Formally known as the "term structure of interest rates", but more often referred to as the "curve", the different between short and medium-term bond yields is one of the more accurate forecasters in global finance. For much of the past fifty years, an "inverted curve" -- which occurs when 2-year note yields rise past those for 10-year Treasury bonds -- has preceded nearly every U.S. economic recession.
Asian markets fell on Tuesday as mounting tensions over U.S. tariffs overshadowed data suggesting global growth was still on track. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 bucked the regional trend, gaining 0.4 percent to 22,692.82. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2 percent to 25,064.36 as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Boeing climbed.
U.S. government bond prices slipped Monday after strong data on retail sales. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose for the fourth time in six trading sessions to 2.856% from 2.831% Friday. Yields jumped after the Commerce Department released a report Monday that showed retail sales rose 0.5% in June and that the increase in May had been revised upward to 1.3% from 0.8%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average marked its third gain in a row on Monday, but the broader market finished slightly lower as the sell-off in the energy sector weighed on the market. The S&P 500 index (SPX) fell 0.1% at 2,798, with the energy sector falling 1.2% amid a rout in crude-oil futures (CLQ8) while the banking sector enjoyed a bounce as Treasury rates (TMUBMUSD10Y) climbed. Investors focused on second-quarter results, and a summit between President Donald Trump and Russian Vladimir Putin, which drew rebukes from Democrats and Republicans, for treating Putin like an ally.
Rates for home loans spiralled higher after a three-week respite, suggesting there’s still some life left in the rotation out of fixed-income assets, and reason for housing market participants to be nervous about higher borrowing costs.
The yield curve has captured Wall Street—and to a lesser extent Main Street’s—attention in recent weeks. The past nine recessions have been preceded by the inversion of the curve, where short-term Treasury rates exceed their long-term counterparts. Much of the breathless attention on the shape of the curve has centered on the tightening gap between the 2-year (BX:TMUBMUSD02Y) and 10-year Treasury yields (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) But there are other key pairs that can signal how investors are thinking about where the economy is headed from here.
When it comes to assessing the outlook for the U.S. economy these days, the discussion usually starts with the bond market’s yield curve. The curve is signaling that the market thinks the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases, which are driving short-term yields higher, will not only slow inflation, but could also tip the economy into recession, causing long-term yields to go nowhere or even fall. The point is that the yield curve is not just a signal, but something that could actually weigh on the economy.
Purchases of motor vehicles contribute to a 0.5 percent uptick in retail sales last month, with data for May revised higher to show sales rising 1.3 percent. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak in front on Capitol Hill about the state of the economy starting on Tuesday. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are meeting in Helsinki, Finland on Monday, to discuss a range of topics.