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Apple is set to host its annual spring event to unveil new products on, of all days, Tuesday, April 20, and somewhere Tesla CEO Elon Musk is hyperventilating with glee.I always seemed to miss my buy and sell points. Until I found this platform that seems to help out.
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The Cupertino company will release financial results on April 28, after the closing bell, and the Apple Maven will cover the event via live blog – mark your calendars;
Wall Street expects Apple to dazzle on earnings day: growth of 32% and 53% in revenues and earnings per share, respectively;
The Mac will likely be the biggest winner in the quarter. I expect Apple’s PC sales to rise by at least 50%, the highest growth rate as far back as I can verify, over easy 2020 comps;
In the five most recent earnings seasons, Apple stock rallied ahead of earnings day four times, including in the current quarter;
Over the past few years, Apple stock has performed three times better than its own average in the two weeks following earnings day.
I begin to dive deeper into what Apple’s numbers might look like in fiscal second quarter, segment by segment. Today, I take a closer look at the iPad.
Figure 1: The iPad Pro.
Easy comps, low expectations
Apple’s iPad segment will face some of its easier comps in recent memory. Disrupted by the start of the COVID-19 crisis that shut down Apple’s physical locations and slowed down consumer spending, iPad revenues declined 10% year-over-year in fiscal second period 2020.
Unrelated to the pandemic, iPad sales had already failed to impress in the 2019 holiday season, probably due to the timing of the model upgrade and some unfavorable secular trends in tablet demand. The iPad seemed to be in trouble, even before things took a turn for the worse last year.
The comeback in the product category unfolded in the second half of 2020, supported by the well-known stay-at-home and tablet-as-a-PC trends (the latter probably benefitting the iPad Pro the most). Momentum is likely to carry, to some extent, into fiscal second quarter. The new lineup of 8th generation iPad and iPad Air, released in September, could help sales as well.
Figure 2: iPad revenue growth since fiscal 2019.
Figure 2: iPad revenue growth since fiscal 2019.
DM Martins Research
Having said the above, expectations are set quite low for tablet shipments in general, in the first three months of 2021. In early February, DigiTimes predicted a year-over-year decline of over 30% across the industry.
The research firm believes that the component shortage could play a role in the sales drop. Some vendors, but not Apple, already experienced challenges to fulfill holiday quarter demand due to long lead times in the supply chain.
The Apple Maven’s take
I do not expect the iPad to be a shining star in Apple’s fiscal second quarter. Rather, I see a mixed bag of pros (easy comps, stay-at-home momentum) and cons (component shortage) leading to more modest year-over-year sales increase.
I have recently asked Twitter if Apple’s March quarter financial results will beat expectations. Nearly 80% of the poll responses were highly bullish.
Read more from the Apple Maven:
Apple Stock: Will The Apple iPad Event Make A Splash?
Could Apple Buy Jim Cramer’s Top Electric Car Picks?
Apple Stock Could Rise From Strength In This Key Segment
(Disclaimers: this is not investment advice. The author may be long one or more stocks mentioned in this report. Also, the article may contain affiliate links. These partnerships do not influence editorial content. Thanks for supporting The Apple Maven)
I am the founder of DM Martins Capital Management LLC, a Napa-based hedge fund manager formed in January 2020. I am also the current head researcher and portfolio strategist of independent firm DM Martins Research.
John and everyone else. I have made and lost two fortunes in the market. I am trying not to lose my 3rd fortune. Remember this - there is a thin line between investing and gambling.
face it with huawei not even selling phones because of usa sanctions,Lg shutting down phone manufacturing,samsung having issues getting 5 g chips,there really is not major competition for apple 5g phones.this reporting for jan to mar will beat expectations again by a wide margin.est are 98 cents and 77 billion.you bet they will crush those.after wedbush and others have repeatedly stated that sales are through the roof,analysts still havent raised est for the quarter.the eps revisions have been raised twice in last seven days on yahoo website but the est of .98 cents is still listed on yahoo.zacks est is .99 cents and no revisions in last 30 days.these are way off.
apple will hit 1.10 and 85-90 billion.services revenue will be up too.
expect a nice move after reporting this time as analysts missed the boat here.this will be a huge supercycle for 5 g that should last into 2024-25.apple will sell over 1 billion new 5 g phones by then.once services get above 25% of revenue and growing at 15% clip per year apple SP will really take off.
In 2009, I had no investment experience but decided to get involved with the stock market. My bank advertised an online brokerage service which I could self-direct my investments. A few clicks and I made my first purchase. I thought it would be complicated but the website made the process so simple. The first shares I bought were 100 shares of Apple. I even used an Apple computer to make that purchase too. That computer is now in storage and I'm on my 3rd since then. However I still own those original Apple shares (split into 2800 shares) and I don't plan on selling them anytime soon.
Why is Nasdaq continuously going higher? Simple, fears of inflation and the dollar keeps dropping. When the dollar forms a bottom, QQQ will crash without a doubt. Meanwhile, you will have the media stating that “fears of inflation” is the reason why the market is dropping.
Looking at historical p/e’s of s&p and many other big tech stocks, ie $AAPL, $MSFT just as a couple of examples. Who here knows how much these stocks would have to drop in order to reach their historical averages?? Here’s a hint. Apple is expected to have 4.46 EPS this year. Their average surprise beat is around 15-20%. With a 20% yearly beat, Apple would have an EPS of about 5.35. At 16 p/e that would give them a price of about 85$/share (35+% drop). The only big news they announced are that they are joining the EV game. That is all speculation and does not mean that their business in that space will fail or not be profitable, just like their business in the server space. Then looking at $MSFT. Their expected EPS for this year is 7.4. Let’s say they beat earnings in 2021 by 25% each quarter (their biggest beat was by 23% last year), that would give them an EPS of 9.25. At the historical average of 16 p/e, that would represent an share price of about 148$, representing an over 40% decline! And those are the biggest tech stocks, so you can make a guess as to how much further $QQQ has to fall to reach historical averages.
The above, I also based on FORWARD p/e’s. The whole s/p is insanely overvalued and what happened last year and happening this year is going to lead new investor in believing this is the norm. The norm is that p/e and p/s rations WILL matter and there is not enough growth from the biggest names to support the p/e’ and p/s ratios they currently hold.
Then to add to that, you have corporate tax hikes coming and interest rates which will undoubtedly go up as the economy is recovering (best unemployment news since before the pandemic yesterday). The dollar will go back up as the economy recovers and unemployment continues to drop. And if inflation does indeed continue to rise, the rates will certainly offset that.
There isn’t much more upside and plenty of downside! As a retail invested I would sell into the strength and be patiently waiting into another major market pull back.
$sqqq $tqqq $qqq
Apple Could Crush Earnings Estimates. One Analyst Explains How.
By Eric J. Savitz
Updated April 14, 2021 12:58 pm ET / Original April 14, 2021 11:24 am ET
Evercore ISI's Amit Daryanani repeated his Outperform rating and $175 target price on Apple shares.
While you weren’t looking, Apple shares have rallied about 12% over the past two weeks, as investors turn their attention to the company’s upcoming March-quarter financial results. There are reasons to think more gains could follow.
Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani this morning repeated his Outperform rating and $175 target price on Apple shares (ticker: AAPL), while adding the stock to the firm’s Tactical Outperform list.
The analyst thinks Apple is “well-positioned to report upside to March quarter estimates,” driven by strong performance by both iPhone and services, and despite ongoing component shortages.
“While the supply chain issues are real, we expect Apple will be relatively protected by its status as one of the largest electronics purchasers in the world,” Daryanani writes in a research note. He points out that Foxconn, a key Apple manufacturing partner, has called out the tight supply of parts but said it would affect less than 10% of customer orders.
Meanwhile, he notes that iPhone shipments in China were up 185% in the first two months of the quarter, while the App Store saw 32% growth in the quarter. He notes that Apple had guided to some deceleration in services in the quarter after 30% growth in the December quarter, but he sees potential that the growth will be steady or better given strength in the App Store.
In short, Daryanani thinks Apple is positioned to report “sizable upside” versus expectations for the March quarter, with June guidance likely to be in line with expectations or better. Long term, he thinks the company can sustain mid-to-high single-digit sales growth and low-teens earnings-per-share growth.
does anyone think apple will make a all time high this year.
Why does anyone sell Apple? I have simply held on and never panicked throughout the years and it continues to make me lots of $. Once Apple get past $135, it is going to run into the 140's. If you are selling this stock you have some screws lose.
Apple may be on the verge of showing off new AirPods and a third-gen Apple Pencil, claims a tipster on Chinese social media platform Weibo.
anyone want to take a guess as to what the big AAPL announcement will be on April 20th special meeting. And what does that do for stock price action.
Seems strange to have this "special meeting" a week prior to their ER on the 28th. Cliffhanger for sure!
If AAPL stay above $ 134 in down market you bet your bottom Dollar we will see $ 140 before earnings.
I bought AAPL today. My 5 year plan is to own a great many more shares. I’m bullish on this company because they are leaders in innovation. I’m looking forward to the AAPL EV and I believe it will happen.
The worst thing you can do is try to market time. Don’t give in to that gambling temptation. It’s been researched, studied and documented that market timers significantly underperform buy and hold investors.
ps. Strong, solid companies that decline without reason will always rebound. Don't be controlled by fear.
The 1 month chart looks excellent. The trend is up. The next 7 trading days into earnings should see some nice gains.
LOL! look at the outstanding call option strike price $ 135 expiring today. HOLY BATMAN
Apple Stock: Wall Street Sees Strong Growth In The Quarter
Should Wall Street be right about fiscal second quarter, Apple will deliver growth not seen in many years.
As I have posted previously, stop beating yourself emotionally on a daily basis regarding AAPL up or down. On a weekly basis APPLE will be up 90% of the time. This past week after closing it finished up $1.170 so on 1.000 shares it’s up $1.170 that’s close to 60K a year. of course some weeks it’s higher, point is hold and you will make $$$$. APPLE is a winner.
The company has an exciting future ahead. Apple music is now integrated into new automobiles. Ther are more new product releases this year than in more than a decade. They manufacture their own chips. Their home devices are becoming mainstream in households. This will be a $500 stock one day but for now I figure by this time next month, following earnings next week, this will be a $150 stock. Then we are in for a pause, maybe a correction, before going after the $500 target (my target) for the end of 2022.
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