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Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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151.10+4.10 (+2.79%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
151.10 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 04:49PM EDT
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  • k
    kusmierski
    Are you guys still in ABG? They just got featured on the watchlist at (http://market-engross.club)
  • S
    Scott
    I really like what I see. A company that is likely over earnings but has a team of capital allocators on how to use that extra cash flow. They are a long term holder. I will keep accumulating weekly!
  • S
    Scott
    Such an undervalued company. They have product where they can pass costs onto customers. They have fixed rate debt (laddered bonds paying 4.5% - 5%) and just upped their share buyback to $200M, which represents ~5.6% of current market cap. Even if/when their margins normalize/drop and their profits decrease they are still selling at only <5x current year earnings. I would think car sales will drop but they can shift inventory from new to used cars. I will buy into slowly. Currently only .07% of portfolio but may average in over the next year to 1-2%. I see them 5x by end of the decade.
  • c
    charles
    I have completed a comprehensive analysis of all available Pure Earnings stock plays for Monday PM, and the highest ranking stock is ABG. This play is far from perfect, it just scored high enough on my 24 point analysis to be considered, but I still see a bunch of good indicators that this should deliver a very good ER, and it should go up in response to the ER. First, I like what they do, and the sector. They are a car retailer, exclusively USA-based, along with auto financing, warranties, accessories, etc...Cars are very big in USA, economy is still looking solid, no real exposure (no pun intended) here to coronavirus issues, imo.

    Stock has a good earnings history, and good reactions in stock price to their releases. I am expecting a solid beat on both EPS and Revenue consensus estimates. Revenue also looks like it should be on the upswing, especially for later 2020 and 2021. Importantly, the stock is materially undervalued upon a comprehensive analysis, even in direct comparison to other car retailers. Company appears well-managed, has an excellent TTM, although not all financial parameters are as strong as I would have liked. I see very good upside potential on a strong ER, 4-8% seems reasonable. Stock is very thinly traded, but still moves well on ER's. I view low volume negatively, but if the stock still moves well on ER's, that is a counter-balance to this negative.

    I analyzed more popular and well-known companies like CHkP and ON, also reporting same day PM, but they just did not score as high as this Baby.

    Would welcome any thoughts or comments on this possible play, as well as all other options for Monday PM.

    Best of Luck to All! :-)
    Bullish
  • c
    charles
    I finished my comprehensive analysis of all available Pure Earnings plays for Tues AH/Wed PM, and unless something very major changes over the next 2-3 days, that Play of the Day will be: BOOT. This one was a very difficult decision for me to make. It came down to three final choices: BOOT, MTCH, and HUM, all completely different companies that scored very high on my analysis, but each had a couple of significant flaws. Here is my detailed analysis of these top 3:

    BOOT: 95+% likely to beat on both EPS and Revenue, very good earnings history, excellent Guidance history, they guided down only once out of their last 13 updates. Stock has a history of very good price reactions to its ER's, BUT it is VERY volatile, therefore making this play the most dangerous of the year so far, for me. Valuation is a bit controversial. Some seem to think this stock is way overvalued right now. I do not see it that way. I think valuation is fair, maybe a little bit on the high side, upon a comprehensive financial analysis, but I see excellent growth ahead. Analysts are bullish, stock has very good upside potential based upon analyst PT's. Financials as a whole are very good. I see 10%+ upside potential on a very good ER, BUT at the same time I see 10-20% downside risk on a bad ER. Because I am 95% confident the ER will be very good, I still find the risk/reward ratio to be favorable enough to convince me to do this play.

    2: MTCH: Extremely likely to beat EPS and Revenue consensus estimates. Guidance history is not that great, but recent news and company initiatives over the past year, convince me that Guidance will be very good with this ER. Stock has a lot of short interest, raising the possibility of a Short Squeeze upon a very good ER, that could drive this stock up 10-15+%. Stock has an excellent recent earnings history, they have beaten EPS and Revenue consensus for the past 7 quarters. Stock has had very good price reactions to its ER's, but like BOOT, it is quite volatile. Current valuation is fair, very good financials, and good upside potential based on analyst PT's. Negative: Company just became the target of an investigation by usa government, to possible underage and sex offender usage. Must be factored in, and this is probably the one detail that convinced me to choose BOOT as my #1. This still looks VERY good to the upside, with a big pop very possible.

    3: HUM: Very likely to beat big on EPS and Revenue. Excellent earnings history, excellent Guidance history, excellent price reactions to ER's, BUT very small moves. This stock has a fine history of going up on it's ER's, but not a lot, 2-4% only. Stock is currently undervalued based on my analysis, a big positive. Analysts are VERY bullish, offering high upside PT's, and financials are absolutely excellent. So, I see HUM as MUCH safer than the other 2, and JUST as likely to go up. But far less likely to go up a LOT. I am choosing to do the much riskier play, looking for a much better profit. My choice.

    Other stocks I really like on this date, all to the upside:

    FISV
    IPHI
    KLAC
    AME

    Best Wishes to All! :-)
    Bullish
  • c
    charles
    Out ABG at $102.01 for a SEXY, yes I said it, sexy profit of just under $5.4k. Another very successful Pure Earnings play as my very lucky and surprisingly fortunate year 2020 somehow continues to stay lucky. :-) Immediately jumped into CNC Long, got 1700 shares in at $62.74. So, both of these fills worked out very well. Managed to get out of ABG fairly close to the highs, and managed to get into CNC fairly close to the lows of the day. Really, just luck, was working all day long and could not monitor the stocks more than 3 minutes per hour, on average... :-)

    Best of Luck to All! :-)
    Neutral
  • c
    charles
    I analyzed all of my Pure Earnings play options for Wed AH/Thurs PM, and right now cannot decide on a #1. Will wait and see how the trading week plays out, before deciding on Wednesday. I've narrowed the field down to 5, and here are brief thoughts on all:

    GRUB Short Sell: A compelling Short Sell opportunity. I expect weak earnings, a miss on either EPS or Revenue, or both. Company not profitable. Stock is significantly over-valued. Business model is poor, easily duplicated by others, not proprietary. Stock has reacted poorly to most previous ER's. Revenues under severe pressure. Company is trying to sell itself or merge with another. Analysts bearish with PT's below current price, lawsuits pending against Co. Insiders are selling. Poor financials. 10-20% downside risk on an ER miss, IMO.

    IRBT Long: Very likely to significantly beat on both EPS and Revenue. Heavy current Short Interest raises Short Squeeze possibility. Excellent Guidance history, but only fair/poor stock reactions to ER's. Very volatile stock makes play risky, large downside risk if ER misses. Stock is absolutely undervalued, a big + to me. Some legal issue are pending. Analysts bullish, have very good PT's to the upside. Financials are very good, based upon significant revenue cuts and stock price declines in 2019.

    PAYC Long: Very likely to beat on EPS and Revenue, modest beat but not huge. Very good earnings history. Outstanding Guidance history. Excellent stock price reactions to ER's. BUT, stock is absolutely over-valued. Analysts are bullish, but not much upside to their PT's. Strong near-term expected growth is a counter to current over-valuation, but immediate upside looks limited. Excellent financials. A safer play than IRBT or GRUB.

    REGN Long: I expect a moderate beat on EPS and Revenue. Stock is under-valued. Analysts are bullish, offering very good PT's allowing stock to go up well on a good ER. Stock has a good history of moving up on ER's, but moves are SMALL, cannot expect more than 2-5% at most. Very limited downside risk, imo, but at the same time significantly limited upside potential. The safest out of all 5 options.

    TSN Long: I expect a small beat on EPS and Revenue, but expect Guidance to be raised. Stock has a poor earnings history, a fair Guidance history, but very good although small, price reactions to ER's. Stock is absolutely under-valued, analysts are bullish and offer high PT's. Overall financials are good but not excellent. A 4-8% upside move can be reasonably expected on a very good ER, less than GRUB or IRBT.

    So, there it is. Which one is the best pick?? I know, my decision and I'll make up my own mind, but if anyone wants to weigh in with thoughts, feelings, ideas, I would welcome any and all perspectives. :-)

    Have a Great Week! :-)
  • S
    Scott
    Looks like a great entry point
  • W
    WellHung Drywall
    Nice report. Up in the pre market.
    Bullish
  • c
    chriskto
    Why is ABG price so low ?
    It’s P/E is fantastically low,
    What gives ?? 😡
    Bullish
  • j
    jim
    Andrew I think it's going higher. Thinking 105 once market gets going.
    Grwat job charles let's go boot and goog
  • B
    Brian
    Lead comment from Q2 2008 conference call. Deja vu.

    "As you know, we’ve been dealing with a difficult retail environment for more than a year now and consumers have been impacted by everything from tighter lending standards to record high gasoline prices. With consumer confidence at its lowest level in more than 15 years, much of the buying public has decided to delay the purchase of new vehicles, causing overall US sales to decline rapidly from a $15.3 million soar in the first quarter to just $13.6 million in June."
  • A
    Alejandro
    Also check out CARS
    Bullish
  • c
    charles
    Long 1100 shares of ABG at $97.10. Bought these shares around 11:30 AM today, as a Pure Earnings play. ABG reports earnings Monday before market open. I am expecting a very good earnings report, followed by an immediate pop to the upside in the stock price. Not expecting anything huge, but 4-8% to the upside seems very reasonable.

    This stock has a history of gaping and drifting in different directions on earnings releases. Very often, it starts out Green but turns Red, or starts out Red but then turns Green. Knowing this history, I plan to try to be faster to pull the trigger and Sell my shares, if the stock is Green by 4+%, unless of course the ER numbers are really excellent and the stock pops up big right away at the open. And if it starts out Red, I plan to be patient, as I almost always am, willing to wait until 2:00-3:30 PM on Monday, to see if the stock turns around.

    Best of Luck to All and have a great weekend! :-)
    Bullish
  • Y
    Yahoo Finance Insights
    Asbury Automotive reached an all time high at 219.08
  • Y
    Yahoo Finance Insights
    Asbury Automotive reached an all time high at 221.48
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