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Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB)
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From an article that just came out , this will be over 10$ today
Aurora Cannabis Inc. ACB -0.11% ACB -0.11% is supplying Israel-based Cantek Holdings with bulk dried flower.
Edmonton, Canada-based Aurora agreed to provide the medical cannabis company with at least 4,000 kilograms of bulk dried flower yearly.
Aurora noted that the finished product would be co-branded under both Aurora and Cantek, and sold to Israeli consumers.
Longs - just sharing some thoughts and data I've collected. Been following cannabis for 2 years now. In 2018 they were over hyped and over bought. Revenues of less than 15 million and valuations of 5-10 billion. The Canadian market was suffocated by the Canadian government retail license lottery (specifically Ontario ~38% of all Canadians live in Ontario region). From June 2019 to December 2019 they opened less than 9 stores in Ontario. Since Jan 1 2020 - they have authorized over 250 stores....and have doubled the pace of openings to 30-40 stores a month. At that rate....it will STILL take 2.5 years to saturate the market. Overall sales in Canada climbing steadily every single month. Even without US, Mexico, Germany, Europe, Israel....there is a lot of growth left in Canada. Aurora revenue is stalling....but why? Bad Products or bad inventory management/supply issues? They shut down multiple facilities at the start of this year, and 3 months later had a huge surge in demand, leading to many products selling out completely...and they had no means of quickly producing more. Supply issues....caused their miss....not lack of demand in a growing market. I chart number of items in stock every single day and generate a monthly average. July averaged 30 of 55 items in stock 54.5%. August average 32 of 55 items in stock 58.1%. September average 40 of 55 in stock 72.7%. Q3 begins.... October average 41 of 54 items in stock 75.9%. November first two complete weeks 41 of 53 items 77.3%. Total number of listed items dropped from 55 to 53 during analysis.
Oct. 15 they launched two new vapes - OG Kush and Super Sour Diesel - those two items are number ONE and number TWO sellers of ALL items of ALL brands on OCS every single week since launch. Their edibles sales are growing for them and different flavors of their gummies are top sellers on a regular basis. They launched a new CBD gummy Peach Serene on October 29th and within a week it was also in the top 10 best selling items and remains there every week (just sold out). In early September they launched Blue Dream Pax Era Pod and LA Confidential Pax Era Pod along with 4 flavors of Oral Mist - all of which are selling well and are higher margin products.
Conclusion - 2.5 years before Canadian market saturation, sorted out supply issues, Germany sales rising, expanding into Israel (first shipment last week), Mexico close to legalizing, multiple states in US shifting toward some type of legalization which boosts their US CBD business, 400+ million in cash, reduced expenses massively over last 2 quarters, and gearing up premium brands....I'm bullish
@jim Not sure if coca cola going to partner with Aurora but other food/drink companies may. The reason is that Warren Buffett specially mentioned that he doesn't want coca cola to partner with something seems to have a bad reputation - pot here , so I think as the biggest share holders of coke, it can swing the management decision . Anyway, once the legalization pass, the overall industry will raise faster especially in terms of investment perspective including institutional investors.
Aurora Cannabis Announces Israeli Medical Supply Agreement with Cantek
· Aurora strategically positioned within two of the largest legal cannabis markets outside of Canada
· Agreement with Israeli leader Cantek provides access to Israel’s drugstore channel
· Finished product is co-branded under Aurora and Cantek brands
Aurora Cannabis Inc. (the “Company” or “Aurora”) (NYSE | TSX: ACB), the Canadian company defining the future of cannabinoids worldwide, announced today it has entered into a strategic Supply Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Cantek Holdings (“Cantek”), one of Israel’s leaders in the medical cannabis field.
Under the terms of the Agreement, Aurora will supply Cantek with dried bulk flower over a two-year period, with the option to extend. The Company intends to provide Cantek with a minimum of 4,000 kgs of bulk dried flower annually, which will be processed into finished product, and co-branded under the Aurora and Cantek brand names for the Israeli market with the potential for additional international market sales. Having secured all necessary export and import permits, the initial shipment of cannabis under the Agreement occurred during the week of November 16, 2020.
“We are excited about our strategic relationship with Cantek, a leader in the Israeli market. This Agreement provides Aurora with a great opportunity to expand our medical cannabis brand and industry leading science in one of our key international markets of focus,” said Miguel Martin, Chief Executive Officer of Aurora. “Today’s announcement demonstrates more than just a supply agreement. It’s about the strength and quality of the Aurora medical brand being validated once again by the world’s medical cannabis markets, including countries like Israel in which we had no distribution prior to today. We consider this Agreement to be a significant step for Aurora, and we look forward to bringing our high-quality medical cannabis products to patients in Israel.”
“We are proud to partner with Aurora, a global leader who shares with us the same quality values and commitments of meeting patients’ needs and improving their quality of life. This is a vote of confidence in Cantek’s leadership and the Israeli market,” said Netsah Israel, Chief Executive Officer of Cantek.”
Cantek is one of the leading Medical Cannabis enterprises in Israel, with a foothold across the entire value chain of the medical cannabis industry in Israel. Cantek holds strategic partnerships with prominent drugstore chains, distribution companies, clinics and is deeply involved with Israel’s growing medical cannabis patient community.
Aurora is now strategically positioned in two of the largest legal medical cannabis markets outside of Canada – Germany and now Israel, one of the largest importers of medical cannabis in the world. The Company plans to continue to leverage its market leadership as it further develops its medical cannabis markets internationally in key markets.
Short shares on OCT 25M price was 4$ now shorted shares are 45M with price 9$. Short squeeze will be big.
This is the type of stock you buy and hold 5 years and don’t look at it. In 5 years your eyes will light up like stars in the night sky. It’s all coming together
Morningstar fair value price target of $26/share. Factor in pro legalization government sentiment and this is clearly trading too low.
Hilarious...shorts are losing their minds...900 million on buy side Monday, 90 million on sell side on Friday... about a billion ready to buy in on Monday... where they buying fellas? Y’all better buy to cover early... those stocks gonna jump and go hard
I just listened to the podcast interview with VFF's Pure Sunfarms division CEO and it's worth a listen. The tone of optimism in this interview stands in stark contrast to the most recent ACB conference call. I'm extremely bullish on the cannabis sector as a whole but have serious concerns as regards Aurora.
There's a reason this company keeps cycling through CEOs--nobody wants to put their name on this thing. It's the same reason that insider ownership is down to 0.1%: those who know this stock better than anyone also know that this company is the Nortel of cannabis.
It's the same reason the company depends on at-the market-capital raises to strengthen its balance sheet. No bank worth its skin will lend this company money because there's no clear path to profitability. Even worse, they're burning through cash at an unsustainable pace. On the last conference call, the new CEO said that their sole focus is ramping down production and cutting expenses. And yet their goal is to reach profitability by second quarter 2021?
I'm skeptical to say the least. The plan to shutter 5 growing facilities means that ACB does not have the economy of scale to have a meaningful impact on the supply-demand relationship in the Canadian rec market. They'll also have to continue paying property taxes and other related expenses for these "ghost town greenhouses." At this point, the best possible outcome is a complete divestment, but it would likely be disastrous for an already grossly over exaggerated asset line on the balance sheet. As I understand it, this misrepresentation of their assets is the centerpiece issue of the company's most recent class action lawsuit.
Based on the cash burn rate, the shrinking market share in the Canadian rec market, and the fact that nearly all of the company's assets are better considered as long term liabilities, the only way this company can avoid default, delisting, or bankruptcy is by management treating shareholders as their personal ATM, by repeated dilution for the purposes of raising cash. This is why the company cornered itself into a reverse 12-1 stock split, narrowly avoiding being delisted.
And what is this cash for, exactly? It's obviously not for ramping up production, according to management. Management also claims that they are slashing marketing, research & development. So, again, what is this cash for? It's merely delaying the inevitable, which is either bankruptcy or a hostile buyout. This company does not appear to be on any path to future profitability.
The new business strategy is aimless and contradictory: cash is being raised to pay down debt, but with each dollar raised comes further share dilution, which equates to less cash raised with each subsequent ATM. At a certain point, the "chickens will come home to roost," as it were, and the stock will either default on its debt payments, be forced into another reverse split, or face a delisting.
For those who have been following the industry for a few years now, consider the fact that ACB is no longer a top 10 holding in the HMMJ Horizons ETF. This is a spectacular fall from grace. In consideration of this, I would strongly recommend that ACB shareholders consider leaving their position and entering more sensible investments like VFF or the aforementioned ETF.
$MJ House Majority Leader to introduce floor vote next week to legalize cannabis $CGC $ACB $MJ....Get in Boys....Boat is leaving....
I bought this stock right before the election for less than $4. I sold it for $6.90. I regret selling, I’m thinking of buying at $10 but this will definitely be a long term investment.
'The medical cannabis industry could be in for one of its biggest symbolic wins in decades if a United Nations vote next week implicitly acknowledges the medical value of the drug.'
During its reconvened 63rd session Dec. 2-4, the United Nations Commission on Narcotic Drugs (CND) could – with a simple majority vote in a virtual meeting based in Vienna – accept a World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation to remove cannabis and cannabis resin from Schedule IV of the 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs.
just guessing but I wouldn't be surprised to see AURORA at high 20's or 30 sometimes next year
This is no time to jump. it will soar next week. The true value was at $50. Then it went down. Now a recovery is happening and it will recover. Holding strong.
Ontario casino will have legal weed bar next March
shorts are going to lose slot of money, ring ring this is margin call
I am not a short seller as I find shorting a morally bankrupt activity. But folks, Aurora Cannabis is not a good investment. Buying and selling the swings for some short term gains, sure if you have a stomach for it. But as a long term play, the numbers are just not there. They hemorrhage cash. To stem that they dilute shareholders. Revenues are not raising fast enough. They are losing market share to Aphria and the like. It is not a well run company.
I know I’ll get mostly thumbs down.
This is not the droid you are looking for.
MORE Act (Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement Act) to get December vote in Congress
Oh, that's right everything is about to change for this financially distressed, failing Canadian public company....The U.S. House of Representatives will be voting on an mj legalization bill .......😅😂🤣
You know things are turning around when Motley Fool includes ACB in the top 3 pot stocks to own
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