Hello Yahooers, I recently discovered this little message forum and I must admit, a few of you add great insight. Still others , remain the reason I don't use stock message boards with any frequency.
I am the same Philip, who authored the recent Seeking Alpha articles, so your disagreements with me or my writing aside, I know almost everything there possibly is to know about ACRX at this point.
I liked Biomedguy's comment below regarding his taste for smaller swings so as not to attract shorts. Here's my take. Many smaller pharmas with near term catalysts see this pattern of dramatic price increases in the month preceding the event. The exception is of course catalysts that bode poorly for the company.
The fun begins when these price increases are over a short period of time (the pop). This is because investors wake up pre market to see their stock up 48%.
Contrast this with AVEO or NEOS, where the price increases happened over the course of a month prior to the catalyst and then, because of this, the price was baked in, and sell the news ensued upon catalyst. Both stocks fell on FDA approval.
So what is the molotov cocktail of the bump, as opposed to the much less riveting monthly increase? 1) Controversy. Investors talked for weeks about AVEO and NEOS and their catalysts. Everyone saw the approvals coming, which is why the price rose over the course of the month preceding the catalyst. Not true with ACRX. There are plenty of sidelined investors who fear the opioid crisis and lack of AdCom. Investors aren't sure what to expect. If they did, the stock would be higher. 2) Shorts. The more shorts there are, obviously the more controversy there likely is. Shorts are not only a result of controversy, but additives to the controversy. How does a high short interest (ACRX's is quite high) seem exciting for a confident long? Rush to cover! Upon approval the initial pop up from buyers also sends the shorts running for (to) cover, the higher the short interest the higher that PPS goes on the surprising positive news. 3) Low float. There are fewer shares to go around. On the good news, more demand for a good that has a much higher scarcity compared to similar goods is always a good thing.
Unless ACRX increases dramatically in the next few weeks, this will be a beautiful October.
Best possible thing that could happen? Early approval...October 6-11th...this thing takes off if that happens.
Reaseacher123 - Thanks for posting the link to the DOD contract. You are correct, it states on page 5 that it's the quantity is 112,000 units @ $20 per unit. However, it also states that - "Delivery shall be completed no later than nine months after exercising this option. Option will be exercised in accordance with FAR 52.217-7"
What re the chances that the DOD does NOT exercise the option??
PS - I hope you have plenty of energy to keep all those sweet ladies happy!! LOL .
After approval all longs should be ready with the next negative argument. It will take a boat load of money to launch a new drug onto the market. However the first phase of the USA launch will only center on 6 medical centers and the DOD. Hopefully they are lining up European partners that will provide the seed money necessary for the USA launch without any new dilution. Once ACRX passes the first 100 million in annual revenue buyers should be tripping over themselves to make a deal. GLTA
Surprised we are at $3.20. I guess everyone is expecting bad news in Oct. I am thinking this is my last chance to buy this low and will pick up some more shares today. With approval I feel we get to between $7 and $10 a share.
Can Anyone ( besides GDSG) Say - with certainty - has the DOD contracted to actually PAY for that large initial order OR is that first order " on the house " due to the DOD's collaboration efforts with ACRX ?
And the approval should bring this $5-6 per share!
time to get real -- the DoD contract doesn't even amount to $3 million stop focusing on approval which has been a given, and start thinking about sales institutions have been taking that view, and they have been selling 3X as many shares as buying this year any realistic projection of sales simply does not support stock price increase
Great time to buy if you haven't ! This should be $4 + very soon!
I feel this stock is really flying under the radar or this opioid concern really has investors sitting on the sidelines. Going to be,really interesting the week of the announcement.
IF you go back to 2014 when Zalviso was near approval, ACRX traded near $14. Now, if you do a comparison of time 2014 vs. 2017 you will realize that ACRX is a stronger company than before. Two products on the pipeline pending approval very close to each other. Whether they get approval, who knows but if they do, I personally think ACRX has the potential to explode big, really big, to a level that we are not expecting to. And to be completely honest, I was extremely invested on this company on 2014 and lost a lot of money. Recently, I got back in, not excessively but enough to recoup my 2014 losses if everything goes well.
Good day to you all. Thinking good things overall. Good things.
its time to load up acrx will hit big and 2 weeks will be double. i lot good news coming out.
While in acute pain, anyone with common sense would choose the timely, easy to administer, less costly, effective pain reliever over the current time consuming, intrusive, costly, with a 1 in 8 chance of complications method?
DSUVIA = GAME CHANGER!
Seminal Point: when Zalviso (i.e. The device and drug) was submitted to the FDA in 2014, the FDA only asked for more work on the device. The drug in other words was impliedly approved. For those doubting approval of the drug (which is now up for approval as a stand alone product) do you really think the FDA Is going to say they were wrong for not having an issue with the drug in 2014 (again, when it was submitted with the device)?
I'm pretty excited by this stock.
Exact same trading pattern last few days, $3.25 to $3.30 range 1/2 day early, then drops to $3.20 To $3.25 range...
anyone out there who is a student of the FDA know when the FDA cancels the preliminary hearing what are the percentages that the drug is approved or rejected???