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Advanced Emissions Solutions, Inc. (ADES)

NasdaqGM - NasdaqGM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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4.8900+0.0900 (+1.87%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
5.1000 +0.21 (+4.29%)
After hours: 07:20PM EDT
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  • w
    wbart21
    Good to see Gibson/ADA deregister further issuance under Profit Sharing Plan.
  • w
    wbart21
    All the years I've been in this stock they've announced the date of the Q2 CC by the EOM July...except Q2 2022.
    They're waiting on something is my supposition SW.
    Whether bullish or bearish for current market cap is the big question.
  • w
    wbart21
    Surprisingly, carried interest framework maintained in Anti-inflation Bill or whatever it's being called.
    OEP,Tru Arc,Apollo or some other PE firm can now finalize it's acquisition of ADA & end this insanely protracted SR process.
  • D
    Dieter
    ADES announced Q2 report for August 15 after market close.

    Always this impatience. ,-))))

    Whether they came up with it through an IR request, were reminded by a fellow golfer, or thought of it themselves is not mentioned in the memo.
  • H
    Halevay
    6 week closing high….let’s hear all the suppositions.

    “Leaked earnings” - no
    “Leaked SR result” - no
    “Upcoming business announcement” - no

    And since we are nearing earnings call time again, I’ll reiterate for the group, do NOT expect anything new on the review announced on the call…and earnings likely showing little improvement.
  • D
    Dieter
    In relation to book value, the share is significantly undervalued.
    A large part of the company's assets consists of cash and cash equivalents (accounts, receivables), at whose reported value there should be no reason for the market to undervalue the company.

    This leaves only the assets attributable to actual business operations (production equipment, inventory parts, spare parts), whose value is massively doubted by the market.

    In my opinion, the main reason for this is the lack of transparency in ADES reporting. There is no concrete information about the share of volume and sales of the own production in the total business. All that is stated is that ADES must continue to purchase materials in order to meet its delivery obligations. It is not reported how much has to be purchased and what concrete impact this has on the company's profit. There is no indication of Red River's EBIDTA. In the Last ER was written, that RR's productivity was "better than expected". Thats great, but HOW was it and what was expected? Exceeding expectations that were not expressed before is not an achievement.
    How should the market evaluate a production whose profitability is not known and which is reported so nebulously?

    The other point is the sluggishness of the board of directors when it comes to business orientation. It's really not the case that the end of the Tinuum business suddenly became clear at the beginning of last year. They had many years to think about what to do next and start dealing with it very late and I fear that it will all drag on for a long time.

    A company with such a healthy balance sheet in a promising market should actually be valued significantly higher despite the manageable operating losses that are currently still accruing. Unfortunately, poor communication and a "very hesistant" acting board stand in the way.
  • w
    wbart21
    BOD 4s just filed. Terribly excessive compensation! 15,000+ share grants for each of them. 60,000 share grab by directors.
    Where's the value creating SO BOD?
  • w
    wbart21
    Merc has been criticized here for his thought that RR's replacement cost could come into play if acquisition is the preferred SO.
    Google : Bloomberg's 'factory building boom' article this am. Strong & persistent manufacturing/supply chain onshoring move by companies presently with cost of new US manufacturing capacity up 116% YOY. With the manufacturing onshoring trend, recently decreasing out sourcing costs, improved pricing & margins the value of RR will be well above its current carrying value soon if not presently, perhaps way above.
  • H
    Halevay
    What a great board.
    Since the company hasn’t announced a deal in, like, forever…
    …all’s quiet until someone can dig up the slightest news story that they can try and tie back here.

    Meanwhile, Peter still thinks this company is significantly ‘undervalued’ yet won’t explain how…and Bart is telling everyone to write letters to the company (so they’ll do, ‘what’?). 🤷🏼‍♂️

    But hey, they’re both very capable of clicking the ‘thumbs down’ so I look at it as I just conducted a public service in giving them both something to do.
  • w
    wbart21
    S-8 filed tonight re 2022 Omnibus Incentive Plan approved @ last month's AM. Didn't have time to see if the docs identify whether any shares/awards have yet been issued. Yes, there's a CIC immediate vesting clause in event of merger or similar liquidity event. 1.25/1.65m ultimate share authorization per the AM Proxy if I recall.
  • K
    Kevin
    Do you guys follow (http://Themaxgains.tech)? It seems way better than all the spam on the ADES board - The alerts have been great!
  • t
    tac
    Anybody a subscriber? Read his initial thesis on ADES which is free and I quickly made the name a top holding as it is much cheaper now. Europe is firing up plants again pretty aggressively and clean water is becoming harder to find for industries or water you drink at home. ADES might of got into the water filtration business at the best possible time. Very happy to own this name for free :).

    Like this post from analyze this on another message board as well thought I would share.

    He didn't really do that much in depth analysis it seems. It took me 5 minutes to look up the answers. So let's look at some of the answers. The author says the residual company has not made a profit in 10 years.... while that may be true....The Red River plant was only acquired in 2018. So that's only 3 years ago. Hmmmmmm So the author may feel the residual may be worth possibly Zero.....yet he failed to mention from a 11/14/2018 press release that the plant had invested capital in it of $380 million. So is this plant with $380 million invested in it worth Zero ? Hmmmmm I don't imagine so. On another front this plant was acquired for ". Total consideration for this acquisition is $75 million, representing approximately 4.2x Adjusted pro-forma EBITDA" back then. Now....while the author read a few transcripts I guess he missed the details of the press releases. Let's go over APT for last 3 quarters ....fair enough ?
    Start off with revenues:
    Third quarter revenue for the APT Segment totaled $24.7 million compared to $15.8 million in the prior year. Second quarter revenue for the APT Segment totaled $16.0 million compared to $8.2 million in the prior year's quarter. First quarter revenue for the APT Segment totaled $17.0 million compared to $9.2 million in the prior year. Hmmmm notice a trend in revenues and we haven't even seen anything from the future European business scheduled to start this year.
    Now, as for EBITDA let's look at each recent quarter.
    APT Segment Adjusted Q3 EBITDA totaled $4.2 million compared to a loss of $1.6 million in the prior year. APT Segment Adjusted Q2 EBITDA totaled $0.3 million compared to a loss of $2.3 million in the prior year. APT Segment Q1 EBITDA totaled $2.2 million compared to a loss of $5.0 million in the prior year. Correct me if I am not wrong, Q2 was impacted by a fire,,, no ? So what I notice from these tid bits from press releases is that Red River revenues are increasing at a fairly rapid pace and EBITDA for the last quarter was $4.2M or $16.8M annualized.
    How could the author have missed this I have no idea. Anyways, the author needs to be more thorough and focus on relative important current points. After all, stocks are based upon the future and not the past.

    https://seekingalpha.com/research/1099377-courage-conviction-investing/5706855-advanced-emissions-solutions-patience-should-eventually-payoff
    Advanced Emissions Solutions: Patience Should (Eventually) Payoff | Seeking Alpha Marketplace
    seekingalpha.com
  • w
    wbart21
    EPA recommends GAC for 'forever chemical' removal by municipal water systems with Clean Drinking Rule to be issued this Fall. Lexology Article 6/20/22 Drinking Water Suppliers Face Challenges After EPA issues near zero health advisory for PFAS ... EPA GAC recommendation referenced in 2nd to last paragraph.

    Despite numerous drivers the CEO/mgt/BOD of this publicly traded company continue to fail in one of their most important responsibilities. Growing the value of the company's currency...it's share price.
  • H
    Halevay
    August 16th….earnings call

    Wrong again, bart. Hardly surprising.
    I anxiously await your next conspiracy theory.

    The good news is yahoo is deleting all posts prior to April 2021. So it’s like your history of terrible calls never existed.
  • w
    wbart21
    OT, GAC JV Deal : Calgon & Chart(gtls) entered into a cross referral deal last month. Chart Water to provide water purification equipment with Calgon to supply GAC.
  • H
    Halevay
    Ok boys and girls

    Here we go. Stock dropped below $5…so I bought 20,000 shares of ades over the past few trading days…avg price of 4.705
    Today I sold 200 August $5 calls for $.30 each
    (Sad that I was once getting $3 when the stock was at $20)

    Total possible return of 12.5% in two months.
    If the stock doesn’t move it’s a 6.25% return
    My downside begins at $4.40

    Has my opinion about the company changed? No.
    Risk/reward is better now that I can write covered calls.

    Time to see what it’s like being a bag holder again.
  • P
    Peter
    Just read on Yahoo that Germany is going to re-open its mothballed coal-fired power plants.
  • D
    Dieter
    It is difficult to say when ADES will comment on future direction.

    It is also impossible to predict at present when a sustained improvement in results will occur. This would require a slowdown or a reversal of the price increase. Sounds paradoxical that they would benefit from falling prices, but it looks to me like they are suffering with the price current (expensive) purchases to cover supply obligations from long-term supply commitments at lower prices.
    Of course, ADES could use the high cash to increase capacity. But they don't seem to intend to.

    And so, for the time being, all that remains is to say that the company is now largely valued only on the basis of its short-term funds, while the operating business units are only traded on the market at a scrap price. However, this is already a clear negative exaggeration.

    Here is a small calculation for this:

    Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, end of period 89.807 4,70/sh
    Current incl. restriced cash 120.482 6,31/sh
    Total liabies 37.221 1,95/sh

    Current funds after full debt repayment 83.261 4,36/sh

    Operating and fixed assets 61.089 3,20/sh
    Actual book value 144.350 7,56/sh
    Shareprice 89.752 4,70

    Value covered by short-term capital (see above) 83.261 4,36/sh
    Market valuation of operating assets 6.491 0,34/sh
    Ratio of market value to book value of op. Assets 10,6%
  • V
    VincentTG
    What the hell is going on with this company? 2 years of absolutely nothing... No dividends, no buybacks, no policy changes. Does the management even care about the investors?
    Neutral
  • S
    SW
    From the last CC "....While the process has drawn out, the fact remains that we are pleased with where things stand within the process and are hopeful that we can provide an update soon..." Greg, sooner than later would be nice. I have seen major military contract procurements move faster than this.
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