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Advanced Emissions Solutions, Inc. (ADES)
NasdaqGM - NasdaqGM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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From the article on SA:
"It is my understanding that Japan's Kuraray recently made a major expansion at its Mississippi carbon activated plant, consisting of an $185 million investment and at cost of $4 per pound of incremental nameplate capacity.
For perspective, Red River has 150 million pounds of annual capacity"
So this plant is worth 600M right now?
Holy Batman, Robin! Shares short drop another 375k to 246k on Aug 31. The lowest I have ever seen it. Could be by the end of month all shorts are gone.
Very good and bullish article on SA. Strange that the stock price don't react. Still a hidden gem?
My price target:
Ades disclosed we can expect 10M - 15M from the Cabot contract.
I expect the same amount from the Cabot international deal (management haven't quantified this for investors yet, this will impact the market beginning in the second half of 2021).
Cash end of the year 95M + 10 * 25M EBITDA = 345M MC = stock price at about 18 dollar.
And this is without extra's like extra income from net activated carbon technologies, water markets, better contracts for activated carbon etc.
There’s a new article out in Seeking Alpha. Well thought out and bullish
Curious if we will hear anything related to the "strat review" in the next few months?
From the last CC transcript:
"...and lastly, we are progressing in our strategic alternatives review to evaluate the opportunities available to us to maximize shareholder value. As we have discussed during our past several calls, we have made great progress in growing our Red River plant’s capacity utilization, diversifying our product mix into water and industrial applications, bolstering our financial position through our focus on repaying our term loan, and growing our cash balances. We believe this provides us with a unique opportunity to evaluate the options available to us from a position of strength.
Overall, we have been pleased with the nature of the discussions up to this point, and we will provide updates as appropriate as the process unfolds. At present, there's is no timetable for the completion of that process."
ADES has really been underperforming of late. I know it’s undervalued but hard to see given the rallying going on in the rest of the market
Poster Halevay opined ADES May be a $6 stock before an $8 stock. I disagreed. Based on recent performance, I may need to concede that I was wrong and he was right. ADES management needs to “sh-t or get off the pot”. Is there a deal to sell the company or not?! Get a deal done to sell everything by early Q4!
Did anybody here find out if Calgon Carbon actually started construction of their new 50 million pound activated carbon manufacturing facility in Pearlington MS? Satellite imaging reveals an area has been clear but that might have been done months ago.
Hi all! I'm trying to estimate the reproduction cost of ADES' assets (including intagibles) and I need some info that I have not been able to find on their website or annual report. Would you happen to know when were the products comprising ADES' current portfolio developed and brought to market? I see there's been practically no R&D investments made in the past 2-3 years, so it can't have been in the past 2-3 years.
Europe could burn more coal this winter.
revenue forecast in finbox is 285M in december 2022 and 498M in 2023
fantasy or real possible?
8-k AH, VP-Accting being given new title of Chief Acctng Officer(still not CFO??). We have no idea why the urgency. Seems an effort by BOD to retain/incentivize her during the strategic review...what she gets: new title, 12 months severance+, 13,781 restricted shares, bonus... & all this accelerates if CIC. WONG also is further incentivized to stay with some employment agreement perks & acceleration rts.
Read into this what you will, you all know what I think these types of moves suggest. If nothing else, these acts by the BOD show how important it is to company operations that the uncertainty Cx'd by the srategic review be resolved asap.
I guess many have just been too optimistic lately and could really only be disappointed by the ER. Obviously, many were not aware of the financial consequences of the Red River incident, or were not even aware of this. The ER states that the damage so far is about "under 3 million", so certainly not far off.
Quote: "Ultimately, the direct cash flow impact of the incident, including maintenance and repairs, capital expenditures, inventory replacement and other items was consistent with our expectation that it would not exceed $3.0 million."
The question is how this financial damage was factored into earnings. Since the plant belongs to the APT segment, it should actually be fully booked there. However, this would mean that APT would be in an extremely good position without this claim, with earnings almost 3 million higher, which I hardly think is possible to this extent. In fact, at least I cannot see the financial burden in the income statement at all.
As a result, it is not possible to identify the actual earnings situation of the APT segment. This is very annoying, because this is precisely where the crucial part of the future business lies.
Better information from ADES would have been desirable here. Optimally, an additional disclosure of the APT figures adjusted for the loss event.
At least the 3rd quarter should show progress a little clearer although even there higher costs are expected due to alternative procurement. But after all the direct costs of the damage will then no longer occur.
One positive aspect is that ADES reports very high demand. This should lead to a significantly better result after the Red River incident has been "worked through". In addition, there is a very solid balance sheet, which is further strengthened by continued debt reduction.
In a short form, in my view the share price collapse was the result of overly high expectations on the part of some shareholders in conjunction with an obviously underestimated or even unperceived earnings burden, which was also inadequately presented by ADES.
The company is extremely solidly financed and operates in an increasingly important market and should have very good long-term prospects. From this perspective, the recent panic attack does not worry me.
Natural gas is at $5.61
Short interest on ADES down from 840k to 535k shares. That’s shows which way the wind is blowing….
Question! How much of last qtrs
.90 earnings were one time and how much could be increased?The
Big question is are we a $3.50 EPS
A year. A PE of 5 is very reasonable. I have a ton of shares
That I would like to sell, but am
I wrong on my EPS theory?? We
ADES looking strong so far today. It should never have dropped below $7/sh. Hopefully the strat review is near completion and CBT is the buyer.
Coal powered electric plants firing on all cylinder in the UK
If you’re a day trader, you should definitely check out (
). They send a watchlist covering the top pre-market movers every day before the open. It’s a great way to pick out potential trades for the day.
On the potential merger “we have been pleased with the nature of discussions up to this point and will provide additional updates as necessary”
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