Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)

I've never been good about figuring out stock prices in the short term. But I do know this. In 2020, a lot of buyers of chips put a hold on their orders wondering what was going to happen in the pandemic. A few months later, chip orders returned and there was a chip shortage -- that's lasted for about 2 years. Its likely it'd still be going on if not for the recession (which is sort of an echo from the pandemic + the war in Ukraine driving energy prices way up).

The slowdown in spending will impact AMAT et al in the short term. My guess, a few years down the road this will look like a blip.

Why?

The major trends driving chip consumption are enormous and they aren't abating. There may be a pause in some segments (gaming, PC) and the cost of the Ukraine war is hurting spending all over Europe (gotta buy energy, which means less $$ to buy the next phone). But autonomous driving is just getting started. Computational medicine, just getting started. Smart grids, just getting started. Remote surgeries, just getting started. And other markets, from phones to communications infrastructure to military will all grow from here.

The demand snapshot is soft, the longer term outlook is massive. There is, though, one major risk: China/Taiwan. If that blows up, a whole lotta things will go very badly, very quickly.