To all my Long friends, thumbs up if you are still here before ER.
For those who are new or don't know what they're doing, because AMD has been losing a lot of money over the years, when they do make a profit (or even when they do beat expectations and NOT make a profit, such as if Whisper earnings show -0.06 and they instead do -0.03), AMD's stock price goes up 10% or more. Here are the scenarios:
1. AMD doesn't meet expectation. Stock price takes a 10-15%% nose dive. After 2-5 days, buyers step back in and stock price comes right back up to the same level it was. Selling at this point is the ABSOLUTE worst thing you can do. Some guy told me he lost money on AMD. I'm like wt F? How could you lose on a stock that's trending up? He said he sold after the last earnings. Well DUH! I told him go and look at the chart from the last earnings. If you had kept it, you'd be break even shortly after that. So lesson? Don't sell after earnings. As a techie who's been working with AMD, Cyrxi and Intel since the 90s, I will tell you that AMD has NEVER, EVER been in such a good position.
2. AMD meets expectations with mediocre guidance. The stock remains flat. Again, buyers step right back in after just 2-3 days.
3. AMD meets expectations with good guidance. The stock should go up 5-10%.
4. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.01 with mediocre guidance. Stock either flat or goes up 5%.
5. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.01 with good guidance. Stock either flat or goes up 5%.
6. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.02 with mediocre guidance. Stock goes up 5-10%
7. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.02 with good guidance. Stock goes up 10-15%.
8. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.03 with mediocre guidance. Stock goes up 10%-15%
9. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.03 with good guidance. Stock goes up 15-20%.
10. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.04 with mediocre guidance. Stock goes up 20-25%
11. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.04 with good guidance. Stock goes up 25-30%.
12. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.05 with mediocre guidance. Stock goes up 30-35%
13. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.05 with good guidance. Stock goes up 35-40%.
In the 2016 Q4 transcripts, they gave guidance of "Q1 2017 revenue increasing approximately 18% year-over year" In Q1, the revenue was 28.91% (rounded to 29%) YoY.
In the 2016 Q4 transcripts, they gave guidance of "margin to be approximately 33%". In Q1, margin was 34% "primarily due to richer product mix due to Ryzen desktop processors sales."
They gave guidance of interest expense and "other" to be $30 million. In Q1, this was $32+$5 (so they were off)
Q1 transcript advise a margin of 33%. They With Q2 having a full quarter of Ryzens, the profit marginI expect to be 34% or even 35% since it helped in Q1.
Whisper earnings is $1.16B with EPS of 0.01 (although consensus expects a -0.01).
If you had bothered to email me, you would have seen all my REAL research data, not just pump/bash junk, with links to the data, AND an actual calculation using these guidance from Q1 explaining all of this, showing that AMD will not just beat, but will CRUSH the "professional" analysts estimates.
My calculations (and this isn't a prediction or a guess or pulling numbers out of my @zz like some people do - this is REAL calculations based on hard numbers and real research) show (drum roll):
$1.29B Revenue with EPS of 0.04 or even 0.05. I was being conservative. See you poor saps at $18-$20 next week.
My BEST case scenario calculations show $1.31B with EPS of 0.06.
BOTTOM LINE: If AMD meets or fails, stock goes right back up after about a week. You lose nothing. If it exceeds, or exceeds a lot, shorts are dead like this article:
It's neat that Yahoo has a feature now that shows how many people are viewing the Conversations page. Just noticed that 3 people are viewing NVDA's page while 25 people are viewing AMD's page. Does this indicate something to you? It seems to indicate more interest in AMD to me. We're about to head upwards in a mighty way, fellow investors. Hang on tight!
Well, it never made the $12s like E predicted this week. It didn't close at $13.50 like she predicted today. If it takes off Monday, and you didn't get in today because you were waiting for the $13.50 number; I guess E cost you a lot of money. But.....I know, I know....."she's so great"....."spot on", and all that. What a bunch of bull!
The Foooollls are at it again. Don't give them the courtesy of a click. They have been anti AMD and pro NVIDIA for ages. Can you say BIASED?
Winner takes all. Yes, Intel was a winner, it had taken all.
Now AMD is a winner, winner in absolute performance, performance per watt, total cost of ownership TCO, performance per dollar, ..... just shy of one more thing, winner in market share. I am not talking about 51% market share to be a winner, only appropriately raising 5% to 10% more market share improvement will get AMD to $40. By the time we can, one day, reach 51%, then Intel PPS will be $10, and we will be $100. When LUCK meets AMD's good preparation, one day we are 80% market share (hard to imagine it could or couldn't), then we will be $154 (just using intel's today market cap).
Do not underestimated this scenario, if AMD can keep the technical win for about 5 years, Intel can keep chasing Self driving cars, IoT, and so on, and lose sight of the computing market, there is a time, AMD is a true winner and would have taken all from Intel!
I never ever had an AMD PC, I always built my PC with Intel (currently i7 6700K+Asus Z170-A). We don't know what Tuesday ER will bring us, it will definitely be an excellent ER but unsure if it will be enough for a pps rally, time will tell, but for me it's a non event as I'm here for the long term. One thing is for sure, I will sell my boring 6700K+mobo to some Intel fan and replace it with a Threadripper supercomputer,so excited! finally multicore CPU at affordable prices, well done AMD!
Be prepared for the pop next week. %50 up in a week is possible. History may repeat itself!! See the AMD historical price data.
For the record, I am fully loaded 4000+ shares, with an additional 10% on margin ready for the earnings run. I have seen runups before earnings, but I have also seen big runs after earnings with this stock. In Q1 there were only a few weeks of ryzen sales, and games were not yet optimized. In Q2 we have a full quarter of Ryzen 5 and 7 sales, along with a windfall from the crypto market of 580 sales. Gonna be a blowout. Q3 will be even better with Epyc, Threadripper, Ryzen 3 and Vega sales. Shorts are so screwed.
It's my opinion AMD is reporting early because the have a huge earnings beat. If they went after Intel who is expected to report mediocre it would tank AMD and then AMD would only bounce back to pre-earnings. By going 1st, AMD will get the nice bounce for the earnings beat and not be brought own by INTC report.
E: Your explanation and projection were very accurate i.e. Friday close between 13 & 14. Correct me my thinking: It may have gone down to 13.5 at the end but there simply was no incentive for MM since it would have activated 13.5,14, 14.5 puts and there were bunch of them in OI! Had there been not too many puts at a higher price, too many puts at a higher S/P, it definitely would have gone down to 13.5; at least that's my thinking.I really admire your foresight & thanks. Have a good weekend and when convenient , let us know your projections for next week.
For those who's had the ballz to follow my directions and received my research on AMD, please take this poll and rate the following on a scale of 1 through 10.
1. The accuracy 2. The methods (0 for kindergarten, 10 for Einstein) 3. The worth 4. Do you recommend others reaching out to me? Yes / No / ABSOLUTELY should have done it ages ago
Thank you for your honest opinion guys!
The board became so useless. A few posts worth to read or answer. Several names hysterically crying. ... if you want to sell, so just do it. But no, you want us to sell in order to cover your ... So ... off. If ER is bad, if after ER we see sell off, so let it be. I am still long, because I believe in the future of this company.
Great day in a down market. AMD is going to be a home run in the next 24 months.
Strong product output will definitely raise 3rd Quarter guidance mixed with reasonably good 2nd Quarter ER and it's off to the races. Shorts will hopefully move on to the Intel MB.
Found it interesting that CNBC stock shows including Cramer's Mad Money did not mention a peep about AMD ER although much of the programming was about next weeks ER's of MANY other companies. Just say'in...
If AMD beats and still doesn't meet expectations along with profits this stock will tumble so hard having this over and over again. Patience with AMD is wearing thin. With all this good news if they don't exceed expectations we will be in a massive correction and downgrades. Let's see what ER holds.
Stock way too cheap this is a 100Billion company in the making if NVDA sky rockets on future of Autonomous AMD will be a player in it not priced in the future of console is AMD ..future MACs will be AMD after the review from new MAC pro start rolling in .Data centre deals GPU for creating clouds and all sorts of future computing the sky is the limit for this company with a team of Management that are hungry to innovate this is a hell of a opportunity I rather have my bets here than NETFLIX..
I sure hope AMD doesn't get bought. Bob Dole had a very interesting post about some poor guy that got F'ed being short. Nasty. My worst nightmare at the moment.
Does AMD have a lot to prove? It is amazing to me how some of these amateur authors try and spin instead of doing a fair and unbias analysis. For example, today's article from Motley Fool has an outcome that says something like this ""AMD needs to set records in order to justify the current share price. Ryzen, Vega, and EYPC will need to be home runs, and AMD will likely need to get its semi-custom chips into the next generation of game consoles as well. That's an awful lot of optimism placed on a company with a spotty track record."" His reasoning for saying this is that the current SSP is priced at 18X their projected .75 in 2020. A couple things missing here...any comparison to other high growth Tech Stocks PE for example. (Note Today, NVIIDA is at a PE of 56). When was the last time anyone has seen a high growth tech stock maintain a PE of 18?? Not to mention PE is not even a fair metric to use for AMD or any other high growth Tech stock... investors want the company to put money into higher top line growth during the market share adoption phase. For example, if AMD were to worry about earnings (i.e. PE) instead of fueling R&D when they are taking market shrare from Intel and NVIDIA, then they wouldn't win the race! Look at Amazon - focused on taking market share for years (with no or little earnings) yet their PE and stock continued to grow - why? Because that is what investors want the company to do!! Yet, this author focused his whole premise on the PE Ratio forecasted by AMD for 2020 and therefore claimed AMD pps was already over valued and will be hard to maintain. That would be fine if AMD was IBM! The value in this stock is the fact they are valued right now at $12b - peanuts for a heavy hitting processor and GPU company who has by all measurements a premium line up (and architecture) that can take market share over the next few years... PE is the wrong metric for valuation and anyone with any investment IQ would know this.