Some time ago I questioned the valuation on AMD and the board chastised me. After some serious due diligence (I use to head an M&A group for a large oil company) I have converted to a long term holder of about 5000 shares ( a small portion of my portfolio.) The short term movement does not matter to me - I am a LONG TERM HOLDER, my investment horizon is YEARS. FWIW My assessment to go long was based on the following. 1) Does AMD have leading edge technology - yes in 7mm and all the new product offerings. 2) are they in growing markets - yes AI, Autonomous driving Autos, Crypto Currencies (I don’t like these) and many more. 3) are they small and nimble, can they grow - yes. 4) are they competing against large lethargic enterprises that are more worried about being politically correct and gender neutrality than new products - yes (Intel.) 5) are they small enough to be acquired if they pose a threat - yes. 6) is there a large short interest that will have to cover sometime - yes. 7) Do they have strong leadership - yes. 8) Are they properly valued - NO (based on normal market analytics they are currently over valued BUT if they achieve their growth objective they are under valued. We will see how it goes and the best of luck to all.
More recent data than Nasdaq on short interest. It's truly interesting to see how after bad news, shorts pile on, only to be trapped and rammed in the you know where by massive buying. If you study the graph between the stock price and short interests carefully, you will see that:
1. After January 2015, the small rise was due to shorts covering. The stock PPS increase coincides with short interest decreasing.
2. Shorts again controlled the stock until the spring of 2016. Smart shorts started to cover ahead of earnings. Dumb ones didn't cover. On April 21, 2016 when AMD did an earnings beat, the stock price shot up 50%+ the next day. You see at that time there were about 17% short interest at the time. All those clowns had to cover for at a loss since that was the about the high for the past 2 years.
3. Clowns continued to short as the stock price kept going up, basically getting slaughtered. On September 9, 2016, a deal with Intel to license graphics processor technology from AMD failed to go through, prompting a 9% drop in the stock. Immediately after that, shorts piled on. Short interest increased from about 2% to 15%. The stock price kept going up, prompting many shorts to cover at a loss. Morons! (imagine of the way Vizzini, the Sicilian pronounced it in Princess bride)
4. When the stock price dropped in December and January of 2017, shorts again piled on, only to find themselves getting killed as AMD stock rises to $15. Most shorts were scared shiznitless as you can see from the short interest that it barely went up.
5. After the earnings miss last quarter, shorts again piled on after the drop (which is the biggest drop in a decade btw - so chances of that happening again as I explained it in my other post is NOT likely). Guess what happened? AMD stock again went up as everyone and their mom, including second cousins and even those thrice removed were buying in. Shorts were again handed a big tube of lube, which did not help them. The stock price kept going up.
6. Short interest even went up from 15% to 20% shortly after that, probably in an attempt to "average up" only to find it was a fruitless endeavor. 5% got smart and covered, which leaves the 15% as of last week.
LESSONS WE LEARNED (or should learn) FROM THIS:
Lesson #1: Shorts don't learn their lesson and keep getting rammed real good. A hundred million shares multiplied by a few dollars here and there means they've lost maybe a BILLION DOLLARS or more on AMD over the past year and a quarter alone. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lesson #2: Longs have nothing to worry about. Just keep adding on dips. You lose if you sell at the bottom.
Don't be a clown. Don't short and don't sell at the bottom.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) Historical Data of Short Interest, Institutional Ownership, and Insider Ownership
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) Historical Data of Short Interest, Institutional Ownership, and Insider Ownership Advanced Micro Devices Inc
The July 25th ER will produce: 1. Higher than expected earnings due to the crypto currency binge ... expect $0.04 / share in earnings 2, Ryzen CPU and crypto currency GPU sales will drive 2nd qtr revenue to $1.28 B vs the expected $1.16 B 3. Game box revenues will be in line at ~$0.55 B 4. Most importantly 3rd qtr projected revenues will come in at $1.48 B +-3%, I am hoping for $1.60+ B
Share price will rise to $16.50 by August 4th.
Abandon ship! Abandon ship! Everyone for themselves!
Intel CPU engineer leaves after 20 years
Intel veteran leaves company after 20 years, and within days of AMD's big Ryzen ThreadRipper launch
In case you missed it, look at this chart. AMD stock dropped like a rock last earnings because of two main things:
1. AMD stock got ahead of itself between November, 2016 and May, 2017. The chart doesn't lie.
2. Earnings did not meet expectations. Ryzen sales for Ryzen 7 series didn't start until March 2, which is near the end of the quarter. The quarter ended on April 1. That's less a month of Ryzen sales.
Let's be honest. Have you guys actually sat down like I have and crunched the numbers? I spent this weekend (10+ hours) crunching numbers from all over the world. I doubt anyone else has, long or short. I bet you most analysts haven't either. They just take other analysts' numbers, modify a few numbers on how they feel things are doing and toss it out there to make it sound like they're smart to keep their lousy jobs.
Having said that, in my actual research (like Warren Buffet tells us to do), I found some very interesting things. We'll find out who's right on Tuesday: the guy spewing things out their @zz or the guy doing their own dd.
There's only three scenarios:
1. If the stock goes up, guess what? It'll be much higher than today's close.
2. The stock remains flat, but guess what? It'll be much higher than today's close in a week.
3. If the stock goes down like a rock again, guess what? In 2-3 weeks, it'll be right back up and above today's close. After a month or more, AMD stock will be much higher.
In every scenario, shorts lose and longs win. Think with your brains, not with your emotions. Selling after earnings is the absolute worse thing to do on a stock that's trending up. It's all about trends. Never fight the trend. Don't be that guy who told me they lost money on AMD stock, and don't be this guy, or these other guys:
Below: An AMD short being pummeled to death by IP Man. Even he would have been long on AMD.
To all my Long friends, thumbs up if you are still here before ER.
All we really need for a short covering spiral is they meet expectations and guide up for Q3. I'm all for the beat, and it's possible because of crypto, and (this is a big one) all the ryzen tweaks that on the gaming boards now make it more desirable than Intels best. Having the performance crown is leadership in this industry, it drives pricing and momentum. Ryzen has it (didn't have it in Q1), and this will drive acceptance of epyc and threadripper. (thus the guidance up for Q3)
Top INTEL CPU Engineer handing in resignation, AMD receiving bonuses for Q2, AMD reporting Q2 2 days before INTEL,crypto currency exploding demand for GPUs, and an arsenal of products being released...all leads to positive results and guidance this ER
Has anyone noticed....
AMD is reporting earnings 2 days before Intel? Usually it is the opposite. Hint that 2nd quarter is better than we think because we could have floated with some of their good news, however, if we show that we are taking some market share, Intel will struggle after the bell on Thursday. We will be dancing through the week.
Also.... AMD made a bold public retaliation statement to Barclay's recent downgrade. You normally don't bite the bear unless you got sharper teeth. If things were bad, why put your head in the lion's mouth?
I feel strongly that Christmas is coming in July. Even falls on the 25th!
MERRY CHRISTMAS 🎅🏽
If you read between the lines and look for hints is part of the game.
Good morning, all.
Need some advice from the techies out there. I'm currently using a desktop HP Pavillion P6-2114 with an Intel processor (i3-2120),Intel HD Graphcs 2000 with an Nvidia graphics card (GeForce GT520). I work in Photoshop 3D and it's really slow, with only 8G of RAM. Any suggestions to make that app run smoother and faster? Can an AMD product be put in this tower? WHICH ONE? Most bang for a small buck on a budget? or would just more RAM help? Thanks!
I deleted my last post because I was double-checking, but now that I have, let me rephrase: HUGE! I'm talking bigger than Trump HUUUGGEEE. And it's not fake news either. It's the real deal. Still crunching the numbers.
Up or down Tuesday, does not matter to me, in AMD for the long haul... I'll buy more if it goes down, to many Apple like things happening with AMD... reminds me of Apple and Microsoft in 1998.
The chick running this company has what it take to make AMD a player in the chip market and take the price WAY higher than it is today. Kudos to this lady. She is one sharp cookie.
The best news may be that you won’t have to wait long; both Ryzen Threadripper processors and a variety of motherboards will be on shelf in early August 2017.
And the wait is even shorter for Ryzen 3 – it will be on shelf starting July 27th, and of course AMD AM4 A320, B350, and X370 motherboard options from the top ODMs are already available for pairing with Ryzen™ 7, Ryzen™ 5, and – very soon – Ryzen 3.
AMD Corporate: Ryzen Onslaught Continues with R... | Community
When I joined AMD two years ago, AMD engineering talent and the promise of the Zen CPU core were major factors in my decision. Jump to today, and its
whooz yor daddy
Guess we will find out Tuesday of Lisa Su can turn this company profitable! Long time waiting!
Wow even motley fool is looking positive on this earnings report... couple days and shorts will all be homeless
Francois Piedsnoel INTELs top CPU engineer with a bland tweet, I'm outa here.
Can you believe that 145,000,000 AMD shares are shorted! If AMD goes up significantly on Tuesday, this could get very interesting....
For those who are new or don't know what they're doing, because AMD has been losing a lot of money over the years, when they do make a profit (or even when they do beat expectations and NOT make a profit, such as if Whisper earnings show -0.06 and they instead do -0.03), AMD's stock price goes up 10% or more. Here are the scenarios:
1. AMD doesn't meet expectation. Stock price takes a 10-15%% nose dive. After 2-5 days, buyers step back in and stock price comes right back up to the same level it was. Selling at this point is the ABSOLUTE worst thing you can do. Some guy told me he lost money on AMD. I'm like wt F? How could you lose on a stock that's trending up? He said he sold after the last earnings. Well DUH! I told him go and look at the chart from the last earnings. If you had kept it, you'd be break even shortly after that. So lesson? Don't sell after earnings. As a techie who's been working with AMD, Cyrxi and Intel since the 90s, I will tell you that AMD has NEVER, EVER been in such a good position.
2. AMD meets expectations with mediocre guidance. The stock remains flat. Again, buyers step right back in after just 2-3 days.
3. AMD meets expectations with good guidance. The stock should go up 5-10%.
4. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.01 with mediocre guidance. Stock either flat or goes up 5%.
5. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.01 with good guidance. Stock either flat or goes up 5%.
6. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.02 with mediocre guidance. Stock goes up 5-10%
7. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.02 with good guidance. Stock goes up 10-15%.
8. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.03 with mediocre guidance. Stock goes up 10%-15%
9. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.03 with good guidance. Stock goes up 15-20%.
10. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.04 with mediocre guidance. Stock goes up 20-25%
11. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.04 with good guidance. Stock goes up 25-30%.
12. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.05 with mediocre guidance. Stock goes up 30-35%
13. AMD beats whisper earnings by 0.05 with good guidance. Stock goes up 35-40%.
In the 2016 Q4 transcripts, they gave guidance of "Q1 2017 revenue increasing approximately 18% year-over year" In Q1, the revenue was 28.91% (rounded to 29%) YoY.
In the 2016 Q4 transcripts, they gave guidance of "margin to be approximately 33%". In Q1, margin was 34% "primarily due to richer product mix due to Ryzen desktop processors sales."
They gave guidance of interest expense and "other" to be $30 million. In Q1, this was $32+$5 (so they were off)
Q1 transcript advise a margin of 33%. They With Q2 having a full quarter of Ryzens, the profit marginI expect to be 34% or even 35% since it helped in Q1.
Whisper earnings is $1.16B with EPS of 0.01 (although consensus expects a -0.01).
If you had bothered to email me, you would have seen all my REAL research data, not just pump/bash junk, with links to the data, AND an actual calculation using these guidance from Q1 explaining all of this, showing that AMD will not just beat, but will CRUSH the "professional" analysts estimates.
My calculations (and this isn't a prediction or a guess or pulling numbers out of my @zz like some people do - this is REAL calculations based on hard numbers and real research) show (drum roll):
$1.29B Revenue with EPS of 0.04 or even 0.05. I was being conservative. See you poor saps at $18-$20 next week.
My BEST case scenario calculations show $1.31B with EPS of 0.06.
BOTTOM LINE: If AMD meets or fails, stock goes right back up after about a week. You lose nothing. If it exceeds, or exceeds a lot, shorts are dead like this article: