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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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63.36-0.78 (-1.22%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
63.61 +0.25 (+0.39%)
Pre-Market: 08:20AM EDT
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  • K
    Kris
    Dr Lisa Su on AMD “growth ambitions”. What will happen when AMD continues to beat the Street expectations? Analysts will be forced to face the fact that AMD is growing, not slowing!!

    AMD will have a fantastic 2022 with beats on the top and bottom lines. We know this because AMD has been quite clear and specific on the fact that AMD can see 2022 wrapping up at a fast growth clip of 60%. And AMD will have that growth continue into 2023.

    Dr Lisa Su’s guidance has an excellent reputation of being consistently correct and conservative. Unlike its peers, some of whom refused to give any guidance, AMD seems to know its revenues. Not only did AMD give 3Q22 guidance, in July AMD GAVE SPECIFIC GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS!! So with a high degree of confidence we can lay out exactly what AMD will turn in for 2022.

    It looks like this, AMD incrementing Revenue each quarter:

    1Q22 $5.89B (70.89% Y/Y) beats by $358.26M
    2Q22 $6.55B (70.13% Y/Y) beats by $20.78M
    3Q22 $ 6.7B. (55% Y/Y guidance)
    4Q22 $6.86. (60% annual guidance of $26B)

    Total 2022 Revenue of $26.3B (+/- $300M)

    Now there is 2022. How will AMD do in 2023? Let’s see what Dr Lisa Su has to say on 2023 prospects.

    “…we continue to see significant growth opportunities as we go into the second half of the year and into 2023 just given our strong product positioning. And as I said, in this part of the cycle, we see Milan continuing to ramp into the second half of the year. And then we see Genoa coming in towards the end of the year into 2023.”

    “…we have a strong opportunity to continue to grow the Data Center business into 2023. And our view is we have an expanding portfolio as well. In addition to Genoa, we have our Bergamo, which is a cloud optimized capability as well that’s coming online early next year. So there is a lot of new products that are supporting sort of our growth ambitions.’”
  • L
    Laroque
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  • A
    Alfredo
    The way Henry_Anderson fxtrade gracefully pulled off the bucks with his credit card things is promising the future, coz have been among the voucher and give him kudos with his paying methods
  • T
    Twn
    Semi sector got punished hard, however 1 of the following 3 likely will stand out and become a big chip leader in the future!

    Below is a brief summary for Nvda, Amd & Intel:
    I. Nvda (Q2):-
    (1) Revenue: (6.7B) yoy +3% ; qoq -19%
    * Down from Q1’s 8.29B
    (2) GM (gross margin): 43.5%
    * Down from Q1’s 65.5%
    (3) Data center (3.81B) +61% yoy (+1% qoq)
    (4) Gaming: -33% yoy (-44% qoq)
    * Big GPU drop
    (5) EPS: Gaap=0.26 non-Gaap= 0.51
    * Q1=$1.36; Q1 last yr=1.04
    (6) Share buyback: 11.93B remaining
    (7) Q3 Outlook (guidance)
    * Revenue=5.7B, expect decline continues except data center & automotive

    II. AMD
    (1) Q2 results:
    - Data center: 1.5B (+83% yoy, +15% qoq)
    - Revenue: 6.6B (+70%)
    - EPS: 1.05 (+67% yoy)
    - GM (gross margin): 54% (vs 48% last yr)
    - Gaming: +32% yoy (Revenue $1.7B)
    - Embedded: Revenue $1.3B (from nearly 0 last yr)
    (2) Guidance:
    - Q3 Revenue: $6.7 billion (+55% yoy)
    - 2022 Revenue: 26.3B (+60% yoy)
    - non-Gaap GM: 54%

    III. Intel Q2
    (1) Revenue: Gaap 15.3B, yoy -22%; Non-Gaap -17%
    (2) GM (gross margin): Gaap 36.5% (57.1% last yr)
    non-Gaap 44.8% (59.8% last yr)
    (3) DC & AI: 4.6B (-16% yoy)
    (4) EPS: Gaap= -0.11 (1.24 last yr)non-Gaap= 0.29
    Non-Gaap: 0.29 (1.36 last yr)
    IV. Guidance: (2022 Q3)
    - Revenue: $15-16B
    - EPS: Gaap 0.12, non-Gaap 0.35
    - GM: Gaap 43.2%, non-Gaap 46.5%
    Full year 2022:
    - Revenue: $65-68B
    - EPS: Gaap 2.57, non-Gaap 2.30
    - GM: Gaap 44.8%, non-Gaap 49.0%

    A lot of data (info) for digestion, Hope investors can get something out of that!
    In my view, although all semi stocks may fall further with overall market, if Q3 results and guidance remain similar to Q2, Amd may have a chance to turn around soon!
  • Y
    Y.
    The Nasdaq dropped 37% from the peak (Aug. 2021) which tells us most if not all technology companies have seen on average a drop of 37% during the same period. The Dow dropped about 19%. There is no stock that has been spared in this sell-off due to the high-interest rate. Once I see buying on weakness for two days in a row I will start adding to my holdings.
    Bullish
  • N
    Niran
    30% down in last one month alone. Thinking why didn't I sell at $150!
  • K
    Kris
    The following is October Graybeard interview with Sir John Marks Templeton (1912 – 2008) done especially for this AMD Message Board. Sir John is a world famous, often quoted, American-born British investor, banker, fund manager, and philanthropist.

    Kris: Welcome Sir John to the 1 October 2022 “Graybeard” AMD MB interview!

    John: Well thank you Kris. It’s good to be here, gray hair and all. At least we have hair. But Please, just “John” will be fine if you don’t mind.

    Kris: OK then, John… let’s get to it! We have a lot of people reading this message board who are very concerned. Everyone is wondering what in the world is going on today in our stock market and what it will do to the Price Target of AMD. Could you start us off first with the broadest scope and shed some Templeton wisdom on the current state of this ugly, pessimistic market. Many have decided to sit on the sidelines, not wanting to risk any investment.

    John: Well certainly, it is challenging. But I would not advise sitting it out too long. If you want to become really wealthy, you must have your money work for you. Let AMD bring wealth to you. And I wouldn’t call the baby ugly because it’s just now in the process of being born.

    In a sentence, we are witnessing the birth of a Bull market.

    Kris: I think everyone reading this will agree this pessimistic market is not feeling much like a Bull market!

    John: Well that is exactly my point. It is a Bear Market which we need to set the background for the birth of a Bull market. Bull markets are born on pessimism. They grown on skepticism and mature on optimism. Right now the pessimism has reached an extreme and investors now expect declining prices. That expectation of declining prices is exactly what we need most. Those ubiquitous lower expectations herald the birth of a Bull market.

    When the vast majority think prices will decline, they usually advance. In other words, prices will move up contrary to what investors expect, but only when those lower expectations have reached an extreme. Bull markets start at the depths of a bear market when all hopelessness has been priced in to the market. Thus, bull markets tend to start when the broad scope of investor sentiment is pessimistic. That is the market that AMD finds itself in today.

    Kris: Yes, Contrarian theory, fascinating… can you roll that forward a bit on what we can expect near term?

    John: Certainly. At the beginning of a of a bull market birth, stocks will exhibit high degrees of short term volatility. This is what AMD is doing now. With this short term volatility AMD will begin climbing its way out of the shallows of the bear market. This volatility will first exhibit itself with a series of Bear market Bull runs. This is an opportunistic time for short term traders who rarely leave money in the market over weekends or even over night. Short term traders love this phase because they can take sequential short “round trips”. A Round Trip is buying AMD on a sudden surge up in the morning and selling in the afternoon as the surge begins to loose steam and drops back to its morning levels. Round Trips are a “rinse and repeat” formula for success until it is not anymore… as eventually it fades and we witness the Bull market birth..

    This is exactly where we are today, waiting on this next stage. All we need is the Bull flag catalyst.

    This next stage will be catalyzed by an improvement in underlying economic fundamentals. These fundamentals are comprised of both macro and idiosyncratic AMD recognized improvements. These improvements give the AMD investors the heads up, heralding the Bull market birth. The Bear Market Bull runs eventually mature and start to become more protracted and robust or “fatten”. The runs will begin to hold on to more and more of the days gains.

    But for an investor to execute we need some fundamentals like rising unemployment, fading inflation, lowering Interest rates coupled with improvements on AMDs top and bottom lines. These events could happen on 7 October if we get rising unemployment numbers. And also by 25 October when AMD should present an earnings surprise amidst signs of inflation slowing.
  • b
    bullzii
    This is all coming down to forward guidance for us as I mentioned in an earlier reply to Ron. See it for more details as I can not repost it here.
    Bottom line...current quarter should be fine. Next two quarters softer conditions offset by Lisa Su conservative guidance in the past and excess demand as a cushion...to allow for only a small pullback...if any at all.
    The stock price is discounting a much bigger earnings slow down than what I have described above and I for one say bring on the quarterly call and lets get this unknown out into the open...settle down the Villagers....and rally this stock off these lows....but only after I have accumulated even more stocking stuffer priced stock.
  • U
    Uncle Tony
    Buy low, sell high!
    I forgot the sell high part!
  • r
    rzb
    $INTC conversation
    If you don't know where $AMD is you don't know how far behind Intel is.
  • b
    brian
    AMD addressable market opportunity of $300 billion, almost four times what it viewed as its addressable market two year ago
  • D
    Drumpf
    My 401K is now a 100.25K. Thanks AMD.
  • S
    Steven1
    Wow! Read this article! "AMD's five-year average forward earnings multiple stands at 39. Multiplying that with the forecast earnings after three years would translate into a stock price of $339, which is five times the company's current stock price."
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/30/2-stocks-that-could-be-worth-more-than-nvidia-by-2/
  • j
    jj
    So the interest for margins is about 11 percent? Glad I don't use margins...the rate hikes gotta dry up the market activities?
  • S
    Steven1
    Mad Money- Cramer said and I totally agree-- "If we're talking about stocks with healthy balance sheets (and AMDs balance sheet is healthy!) you have my blessing to buy small, just like we're are doing for the Investing Club. I think it's too late to sell."
  • b
    bullzii
    It has occurred to me that if micron can rally after such a scary report that is telling us volumes about what the expectations are for semi stocks. So I think AMD could come out and see anything at all except for Lisa Sue retiring, but anything else I think the stock would rally that’s how oversold we are. I am buying more.
  • J
    Jamesd
    I know come November this will all reverse with the elections…..
  • G
    GRace
    AMD remains one of the best diversified designer semis there is which should have stayed above the 150 price point because it so deserve it compared to most of its peers. With that said I won't be surprised if in few years it will be above the 250 mark. I hope you are patient and taking advantage of these low prices because interest rates will probably never go back to above 6% like they did in the 80's. Have a good day everyone.
    Bullish
  • D
    DIEJillianDIE
    did everyone see Kamala Harris say that the US has a strong alliance with North Korea.
  • *
    *Tom*
    The S&P's chart now is very much like the chart of August in 1973. It looks like the market is due for a huge rebound, and AMD could go back to 110-120 range.
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