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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

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  • T
    TOM
    AMD's laptops market share keeps growing daily! Now 41.4% up from 41% yesterday. This has shown daily gains. No question it will be contributing major revenues and profits to 2Q ER end of July. Within a quarter alone, AMD's laptops market share more than doubled from 20% to over 40%. It seems the only limit is how many chips AMD's making as demand for all other segments is unprecedented high. TSMC's fab capacity has increased but AMD's customers want more. 50% revenues growth this year guidance will be beaten as well as gross margins and EPS, over $3 at 30X modest PE in view of the growth is already $150 PPS. But we'll see $200 by EOY.
    https://www.cpubenchmark.net/market_share.html
  • D
    David
    A comparison of AMD and Nvidia at relative points in time. Nvidia's 2020 10K released on Feb 24, 2021 indicated revenues of $16.7B and NI of $4.3B. On this date, it's market cap was $360B based share price of $579. AMD's 2021 revenues are going to approximate $16B (Q1 3.45B, Q2 3.8B, Q3 4.2B, Q4 4.5B) with approximately $3B in net income. So AMD's projection is slightly shy of Nvidia's 2020 but not nearly enough to justify a 360% market cap advantage. And very importantly, none of the projection above includes Samsung cell phone revenues. which have the potential to blow all revenue and net income numbers away. It also doesn't include Xilinx (which may have a very slight immediate share dilution effect but long term will help thrust AMD's growth). Now, to be fair Nvidia is having a great 2021 and its market cap has jumped to $444B, but I feel
    there is far greater threat to its growth than AMD's. Nvidia's 2021 growth results in part due to its GPU server dominance and the current popularity of mining. But AMD's new products will be a significant challenge to Nvidia's GPU server share and we've seen what happens to Nvidia's growth when mining falters (re 2018). On the flip side, AMD has more avenues for growth with its CPU technology dominance, GPU product upgrades, cell phone market entrance. etc. And Nvidia's announcement of a very limited ARM based CPU in two years will not effect AMD's growth. Conclusion - both are great companies but their income and cash flow streams project to be very comparable and AMD''s share price will reflect it. The frustrating MM manipulation will fade. and AMD will be properly valued.
  • T
    TOM
    Sony to invest $18B to expand cloud gaming to 1 billion users! Imagine the AMD's datacenters CPUs and GPUs for this alone!
    "Sony said it plans to spend 2 trillion Japanese yen (equivalent to nearly $18.4 billion in US currency) over the next three years on strategic investments. A major part of the goal is to massive increase the number of customers connected to its services to 1 billion, up more than sixfold from 160 million currently."
    https://hothardware.com/news/sony-playstation-mobile-gaming-investment
  • J
    James
    su was on bloomberg now news tv 30 min ago!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • M
    Master Yoda
    AMD is #10 on the Wall Street Bets discussions. First time i have seen this. Ready for a big short squeeze coming in my opinion.
  • M
    Michael
    This is where AMD is streets ahead of intc and nvda, having both CPU and gpu....
    https://www.engadget.com/asus-rog-strix-g15-advantage-review-amd-radeon-rx-6000m-120031416.html
  • S
    Steven
    My Fav comments from the Market Watch article-
    "Here’s the upshot in all of this: AMD is a solid play on the megatrend of cloud computing and the related data center buildout. It’s a bet on the increasing complexity of artificial intelligence and big data analytics. And its GPU chips give Nvidia a run for the money. That makes AMD a play on the new Xbox and Sony PlayStation console upgrade cycle and the potential release of a new Nintendo Switch later this year. AMD is also now a serious contender in PCs and notebooks."
    “Our goal at AMD is to really be the leader in the high-performance computing wave,” says Su.
    She’s getting her way, and you can see the success in the numbers. First-quarter sales grew 93% year-over-year and 6% sequentially. AMD guided for 50% sales growth for the year, up from prior guidance of 37% growth.
    “We believe this guidance should be easily attainable, particularly as Intel deals with manufacturing challenges,” says Morningstar analyst Abhinav Davuluri.
    ""As a group, Wall Street analysts are predicting the biggest gains for AMD, among all the companies in its space. It’s also notable that only 61% of analysts have a buy rating, lower than the percentages for Nvidia, Broadcom Inc. AVGO, +0.19%, Marvell and Analog Devices Inc. ADI, -0.54%. For investors, this is a positive because it tells us there’s more room for sell-side analysts to turn bullish and drive their clients into the name."
    Great thoughts and analysis.. Go AMD
    Bullish
  • T
    TOM
    Mainstream HP using new mobile rDNA 2 Radeon RX 6600M in a laptop - "AMD Advantage"! Spreading all over, now GPUs for laptops too!
    "AMD Radeon RX 6600M ‘Navi 23’ GPU Featured Inside HP Omen 16, Listed at Best Buy For $1480 US"
    https://wccftech.com/amd-radeon-rx-6600m-navi-23-gpu-featured-inside-hp-omen-16-listed-best-buy-for-1480-us/
  • T
    TOM
    AMD's laptops market share keeps growing daily now at 40.3% up from 40.2% yesterday. Yes "just" 0.1% but it's in a day!
    Look at the laptops Passmark market share graph. It tells the story. ... this is no error coincidence or a limited survey. This is real showing substential new sales growth and higher market share of new sales as the graph shows all installed statistics including old models 2-3 years past bought which are mostly Intel's based.
    This will have a real impact on the revenues this Q to hear at the ER end of July. Could mean not just a strong beat for 2Q and a stronger 2H outlook than previously guided, as Dan admitted at the BoA Vivek conference, but 50% revenues growth for 2021 will be surpassed by a lot and next year will show similar growth over 50%. This is because it depends on added TSMC's fab capacity AMD gets. Lisa Su explicitly stated all that AMD manufacturers goes straight to customers nothing is made to sit in inventory. This means customers had made contract commitments to buy chips not just the next Q but longer including next year !! Why? To secure their supply of chips in chips shortages to keep for next year at least because of unprecedented demand growth!
    This is what we see with laptops growth. Everything else will too.
    https://www.cpubenchmark.net/market_share.html
  • t
    tito47
    Xilinx Acquires Silexica to Broaden its Developer Base
    SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Xilinx, Inc. (NASDAQ: XLNX), the leader in adaptive computing, today announced that it has acquired Silexica, a privately-held provider of C/C++ programming and analysis tools. Silexica’s SLX FPGA tool suite empowers developers with an unparalleled development experience building applications on FPGAs and Adaptive SoCs. This technology will become integrated with the Xilinx Vitis™ unified software platform to substantially reduce the learning curve for software developers building sophisticated applications on Xilinx technology.

    Leveraging standard high-level synthesis tools from Xilinx, the SLX FPGA tool suite tackles non-synthesizable and non-hardware aware C/C++ code, detects application parallelism, inserts pragmas, and determines optimal software and hardware partitioning. This enables designing at a higher level of abstraction, orders of magnitude faster simulation, and a better result through high-level optimizations and design space exploration.

    “Software programmability is imperative to our long-term goal to accelerate the path from software to application-optimized hardware systems,” says Salil Raje, executive vice president and general manager, Data Center Group, Xilinx. “Silexica’s technology complements our existing Vitis solution and roadmap and will accelerate our ability to attract a wider range of developers seeking to leverage our heterogeneous computing architectures.”

    “Silexica’s vision is to create a disruptive developer tool – one that closes the gap between the software and hardware developer domains,” says Maximilian Odendahl, former CEO of Silexica. “The integration of our technology with the Xilinx Vitis portfolio fully aligns with our goal of making adaptive computing accessible to software developers. We are excited to continue the journey as part of the Xilinx Vitis team.”

    After six years of cutting-edge academic research, Silexica was spun out of RWTH Aachen University in 2014. Its headquarters are in Cologne, Germany, with offices in Silicon Valley and Japan. It serves innovative companies in the automotive, robotics, wireless communications, aerospace, and financial industries and has received $28 million in funding from international investors.

    Financial details and the terms of the transaction are not being disclosed.
  • p
    pavaye
    Mobile CPU market share 41%

    Something is "cooking".

    https://www.cpubenchmark.net/market_share.html
    Bullish
  • M
    MagicFabric
    Jay Leno breaks 1/4 mile speed record 9.247sec. @ 155mph in the fastest production car ever produced! The Tesla model S Plaid, the $130k car faster than 2.5M Bugatti!...Plus has AMD infotainment to boot!!!! Goooo AMD!!!
  • A
    Andrew
    ** Trefis expects AMD’s (NASDAQ:AMD) Computing & Graphics Revenue to increase from around $6.5 billion in 2020 to $9 billion in 2021 and about $11 billion in 2022.**

    They are responding to a lot of what was discussed in yesterday’s BofA.

    Trefis has apparently come onboard as an AMD believer. There was this article on my newsfeed:

    https://www.trefis.com/stock/amd/articles/517435/forecast-of-the-day-amds-computing-graphics-revenue/2021-06-09

    Trefis, who used to write the most degrading ‘analysis’ of AMD usually one or two days ahead of earnings. Often with a ‘sell’ recommend.
    lol
    Quite a different tone here and while their target of $98.81 is not going out on any limb, they were AMD haters before.

    One of the topics Vivek kept returning to yesterday was exactly server and enterprise outlook for ‘21 & ‘22, and not just 3-5 years out.

    from the article:

    “ EXPANSION INTO THE SERVER MARKET

    AMD clinched a deal with Google to supply its FirePro S9300 x2 GPU in the latter’s cloud platform. In addition, the company also bagged a deal with Chinese company Alibaba to supply Radeon Pro chips for the latter’s servers. These deals are quite significant for AMD, as most of the big players in the cloud storage market currently use Nvidia’s GPUs.

    In 2016, AMD took another major step to expand its presence in the server market. The company licensed its x86 processor and SoC technology to its JV with China based Tianjin Haiguang Advanced Technology Investment Co. The JV will use the technology to develop chips for server systems to be sold only in China. There is a great incentive to develop chips for server systems specific to China, as it is the world’s biggest semiconductor market and the local supply of server chips can help the company accelerate its presence in the market. It is worth noting that AMD has an edge over its competitors in the server market, as it is the only processor provider to bridge the x86 and 64-bit ARM ecosystems.

    As of August 2018, AMD has over 50 customer platforms, including Cisco and HP Enterprise, which now have EPYC servers.”

    A lot of the article is old news, but if Trefis is switching sides in AMD, then it’s one more on our side!
    GLTA Ls
  • i
    izazaga
    I heard about AMD the other day on (http://Multistockalerts.com). It’s looking like an interesting play.
  • p
    pavaye
    BoA 2021 Global Technology Conference - what I liked are

    1. AMD's confidence in wafer supply for project growth
    2. one two punch on server side in 2022(confidence that Milan itself would give a punch for Intel's 10nm server chip but it would be immediately followed by Genoa)
    3. Some early hints on integrating FPGA in MCM ( Who can talk about it better than
    Dan McNamara, Senior Vice President & General Manager, Server, who spent entire career in Altera (FPGA) before it being acquired by Intel and spending few year in Intel and now GM for Server).

    Future looks stronger that present.

    Go AMD.

    https://ir.amd.com/news-events/ir-calendar/detail/6637/bank-of-america-2021-global-technology-conference
    View AMD’s past and upcoming events.
    View AMD’s past and upcoming events.
    ir.amd.com
    Bullish
  • F
    Franklin
    Intel Sapphire Rapids (slated for early 2022) will likely be delayed while AMD keeps raising the bar and delivering in the data center, cloud, and super compute. Looks like AMD will continue to eat Intels lunch into next year while gaining enterprise marketshare along the way.
  • T
    TOM
    Just for the record, while yesterday's closing was 2% up, more than Nasdaq and other semis, volume was just 28m still very low! The daily average volume itself goes down to 43m as it's calculated on past 30-60 days showing the trend. In contrast other semis like Intel and nVidiaabout daily average volume but with less gains.
    So... looks to me AMD is getting into VALUE FYNDS. Value funds theory looks for suppressed stocks that have great financials and products but drop 20% or so within months, just like AMD's drop from $100 to $80. These funds are bargain hunters knowing investors taking profits doesn't mean that the PPS won't even surpass past ATH if everything is good.
    Everything is excellent with AMD's future as you know. The funds look at analysts average PT, PE, margins etc and start buying slowly.
    I think AMD is such a value buy target and will soon be bought by such funds.
    Read:
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/valuefund.asp#:~:text=A%20value%20fund%20is%20a,companies%20with%20high%20growth%20prospects.
  • T
    TOM
    Very playable gaming on APUs. .. to include future Samsung smartphones AMD's rDNA ARM APUs I'm sure. Big news!
    "AMD FidelityFX Super Resolution Will Work on Ryzen APUs and iGPUs as Well"
    https://www.hardwaretimes.com/amd-fidelityfx-super-resolution-will-work-on-ryzen-apus-and-igpus-as-well/
  • p
    pavaye
    June 10 AMD — New HPE Alletra 6000 use AMD EPYC™ processors’ high performance and PCIe® 4 capabilities to deliver fast, consistent performance with leading data efficiency —

    AMD announced that AMD EPYC™ processors are powering the new Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Alletra 6000, a cloud-native data infrastructure storage solution that powers business critical applications with the cloud experience.

    The new HPE Alletra 6000 takes advantage of the AMD EPYC 7002 series processors, which have the ability to scale from 8 to 64 high-performance cores and the increased generational bandwidth of PCIe® 4 support to offer up to 3X faster performance than previous HPE Nimble Storage All Flash Arrays. HPE Alletra 6000 represents a bold paradigm shift for data infrastructure as it enables IT to shift from owning and maintaining data infrastructure to simply accessing and utilizing it on-demand and as-a-service.
    Bullish
  • T
    The.Boot.2.0
    Does the acquisition of Silexica by Xilinx mean AMD gets both Xilinx and Silexica for the same price? Does that increase the total value of combined 3 compianies?
    Bullish