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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)
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Advanced Micro Devices
A darling of the stock market in 2020, AMD has mostly floundered in 2021. The culprits for the company's lackluster share price performance are losing some of its central processing unit (CPU) market share to Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) in the fourth quarter of 2020 and not being able to do much about it due to severe semiconductor shortages. While Intel designs and manufactures its chips, it is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) that does most of the chip production work for AMD. With tight foundry capacity, AMD was unable to meet all demand in the fourth quarter.
However, these problems may be close to resolution. According to a Steam Hardware & Software survey, AMD's CPU market share for Microsoft's Windows operating systems increased from 25% to 28.97% from December 2020 to March 2021. At the same time, Intel's market share dropped from 75% to 71.02%. Although the survey only pertains to Steam gaming platform users, it highlights a trend in the overall CPU market, considering that Steam had 120 million active users globally in 2020.
AMD can also expect these production worries to ease, now that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has announced plans to invest $100 billion in capacity expansion over the next three years. With AMD being a prominent TSM client, these investments are bound to help the company.
Despite the many concerns, AMD's fiscal 2020 performance is quite encouraging, thanks to the company's focus on high-end CPUs and graphical processing units (GPUs), which are used extensively in the rapidly expanding gaming and data center markets. The company's revenue jumped 45% year over year, while net income more than doubled in 2020. Yet AMD is trading just over 10 times trailing-12-month sales, which is the lowest valuation for the company in the past 10 years. With a significant technological advantage over peers and gradually improving foundry capacity, AMD could prove to be an attractive investment for patient investors.
Ryzen 5950X and 5800X are available at Amazon US for the first time this year :
Also the Radeon RX 6700 XT is the #1 GPU best seller at Amazon US (looking good for Q2) :
Q1 2021, There is an improvement of +2.61% for Team Red from Q4 2020
Q1 2021 processor market share is revealed at 24.49% for AMD and 75.51% for Intel.
Samsung collaboration fruits are coming soon...
The future of AMD seems so clear. AMD's products are so superior to Intel's today and that gap is ever expanding. The only reason to buy Intel products is 'this is what we've always done' and that herd mentality is changing. It makes sense that eventually smart people don't continue to buy Intel's inferior products at a significantly higher cost. It also doesn't seem likely that an ARM entrance (Nvidia, Apple) will change what is becoming AMD technical dominance. It's been tried and failed, and stating that there's a potential product for a niche market that's at least 2 years away isn't convincing. At the same time, AMD has made tremendous gains on the GPU side, and is entering the smart phone and EV worlds. The TAM's are huge, demand is unprecedented and growing, top management (compare to Intel's last few years), a limited number of competitors, the top supply house which is expanding capacity in a big way and more. Just my opinion, and nothing is ever 100%, but the ducks seem so lined up for this game changing company.
When it was Sept or Oct last year, short interest was 26Mil, now it is 80Mil. The shorts increased the supply and hence lowered the stock price, hoping AMD will go south. But AMD is getting more and more market share, and making more and more money, very soon they all have to cover together, and the moon we go... Let them think they win for now... Earning is coming :-)
Alienware Really Doesn’t Want You to Buy an AMD Ryzen PC
"Could this all be an accident? Sure. It’s possible that Alienware managed to spontaneously make more than a half-dozen mistakes, all of which happen to favor Intel. It’s possible one of those mistakes happened to involve listing power supply efficiency in a way that makes Rocket Lake look better than Ryzen at a time when Ryzen’s power efficiency is vastly better than anything Intel brings to the table. It is possible that Alienware has accidentally misrepresented its own product configurations in a way that exclusively and entirely favors Intel’s objectively worse platform.
But is it likely?"
OK sellers...you will regret this in a few short days.
TSMC 7nm numbers don't lie, INTC desperate re-direction doesn't lie, chip shortages and higher ASP's don't lie, analyst upgrades and reiterations days before the quarterly report...doesn't lie and most important of all.....If I told you you could buy AMD shares very very near its 6 month lows right in front of the companies greatest earning report......and highest growth rate with a most likely raise in estimates from management....in the history of the company....would you sell the stock?
And the fans keep piling up ! Raymond James, Chris Caso join the ranks of AMD Bulls that calls for $100 and gives an Intel downgrade.
Amd is getting more and more market share based on the steam hardware survey. source:
Intel faces a costly and uncertain road back to glory, analyst warns of ‘pain’ ahead
April 15, 2021 at 12:07 p.m. ET
Even though Intel could receive some government assistance, Caso expects that the company’s plans to open a foundry business will be expensive. “We therefore believe the fall analyst day could be a negative catalyst, as investors get the bill for that investment,” he wrote. In addition, he’s skeptical that the company has the technology to effectively compete in this business.
“For investors who have a higher confidence in a turnaround than we do, we simply don’t see a reason to make that bet now since any turnaround would be several years away, with many cyclical and Intel-specific issues that could weigh on estimates in the meantime,” Caso wrote.
$AMD $INTC $XLNX
”Our first-quarter business was supported by HPC[AMD]-related demand, balanced by a milder smartphone[iPhone] seasonality than in recent years,” says CFO Wendell Huang, “moving into second quarter 2021, we expect our revenue to be flattish, as HPC-related demand will continue to grow, offset by smartphone seasonality.”
5nm [iPhone]sales accounted for 14% of revenues and 7nm [AMD] for 35% of sales.
Bank of America TODAY reiterated its own buy rating and $100 price target on AMD, predicting that AMD's recent underperformance is likely to correct as investors clue in to the edge AMD's Milan chips still hold over Intel's new Ice Lake server CPUs. Additionally, Bank of America reminded investors that Intel's new 7nm products won't be on the market for another couple of years, by which point AMD's lead could be insurmountable.
TSMC Q1 19% up. Q2 and 2021 guided up.
In the first quarter, shipments of 5-nanometer semiconductors accounted for 14% of total wafer revenue at TSMC, while 7-nanometer chips accounted for 35%.
income for the January-March period climbed 19% to NT$139.7 billion ($4.9 billion), beating the average analyst estimate of NT$136.2 billion, buoyed by demand for high-performance computing (HPC) equipment and a milder seasonal effect on smartphone demand
“We are seeing stronger engagement with more customers on 5-nm and 3-nm, in fact the engagement is so strong that we have to really prepare the capacity for it,” Wei said. Smartphones and HPC will be the main drivers for demand of 5-nm, which will contribute around 20% of wafer revenue this year.
Sales in the June quarter may be between $12.9 billion and $13.2 billion, beating the average $12.8 billion seen by analysts,
Microsoft just unveiled the Surface Laptop 4, which competes most closely with Apple’s MacBook Air. Customers can pick Intel or AMD chips. It’s not hard to guess which will sell the best, AMD or Intel. This will be an excellent gauge of AMD mindshare.
The AMD models will offer better gaming performance. Microsoft also said AMD models will be more appealing for people working with photo and video software given the boosted graphics. Part of that decision will be made for consumer depending on how much they want to spend.
In addition to having higher performance AMD is also the least expensive. So much so that the entry-level model comes only with an AMD chip.
The 13.5-inch Surface Laptop 4 ranges from $999 for the entry-level 13.5-inch model with an AMD Ryzen chip and 256GB of storage to $2,299 with an Intel Core i7 processor and 1TB of storage.
The 15-inch model starts at $1,299 with an AMD Ryzen processor and costs up to $2,399 with an Intel Core i7 chip.
Between AMD and Intel which Surface Laptop 4 do you think will sell better?
Well, this has been a volatile week. Downward pressure continues to be based on faux theories like Nvidia taking over the CPU server world and up on real news like TSMC providing some insight into AMD's Q1 results. Reminds me of 2018 when unfounded attacks, rotation, etc slowed AMD's PPS rise. Just like then. the Company's actual performance will eventually drive the share price.
AMD announces earnings next week and Goldman Sachs said yesterday they expect an upside surprise. Think it will go up into earnings.
Let us have a 5%+ day for a change.. Surface 4, PT raise, TSMC 7nm revenue is 35%, XLNX/Mavenir Inc/emerging category of open 5G networks..
Ok so NVDA announcement and 5% gain.
So AMD comes our and says: “Amd all set to become a chip powerhouse with blockbuster growth after merger with Xylink. We see robust growth and improved margins contributing to huge earnings! “
Ok ... 10% gain any one?? Well it’s just happening but AMD Is not saying !! BTW, AMD is not planning, it’s already done and delivering!
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