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Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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151.12-0.47 (-0.31%)
At close: 03:59PM EDT
151.37 +0.25 (+0.17%)
After hours: 04:00PM EDT
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  • T
    The poorly behaved boxer
    Hey All! At the end of Q3 now for 2022, and looking like we will continue to see solid results. I would expect to see some Q3 earnings to be around $20 per share with Q4 trending slightly lower. That said, the big items we need to be on the outlook for:

    1. Domestic pricing for 2023 contracts. AMR announced that 4.6 million tons were contracted but with no price attached. 2022 was contracted at $195, hoping for similar or slightly higher.
    2. Met to Thermal transitional tons. The spread between met to thermal remains huge & its likely to continue unless we see a rise in met coal prices. Very possible that some of the 2023 tonnage will be contracted out at fixed prices for thermal. Hoping for some color from various companies in the Q3 calls about this.
    3. Buybacks & use of cash on hand. I expect we hear that roughly $150 million remains of the buyback which leaves a lot of cash still on the balance sheet. Eitehr we get more buybacks or a special dividend towards the end of the year?
    Bullish
  • g
    glenn
    Given the explosions of the Nord Stream 1 & 2 pipelines creates more uncertainty
    that Russia can ever be depended on to provide natural gas to Europe. This event
    should solidify the increased use of Thermal coal for an even longer period of time
    than what may have been planned. Germany is bringing more coal plants online to
    reduce the use of natural gas. This explosion may lead to more dependence on coal
    in both the short & medium term. Pricing for this Thermal coal is likely to remain
    elevated for at least the next several years. Hopefully, AMR will provide many cargos
    of coal to Europe if prices are better than what they could get elsewhere. Strange
    logic but so long as natural gas prices in Europe remain high, Met coal sold for Thermal
    use should get a premium...When prices of natural gas decline, steel production should
    pick up again which would create demand for Met coal...A Win-Win! (For AMR.)
  • T
    The poorly behaved boxer
    Good morning all! While we watch an ugly free fall going on in the commodity sector, the underlying prices for coal remain quite stable. US east coast high vol around $280-285, Aussie low vol around $265. The thermal prices remain over $400, so we are definitely going to have some met coal get sold into the thermal market particularly starting Q1 of '23. Might be a good idea to sell some puts to lock some cash now while acting as a purchase point should we drop lower. January puts at $100 pay out over $10 per, so effective stock purchase price would be $90. If we hit $90 with coal pricing where it is, back up the truck.

    Overall, we are at the mercy of the larger market right now but the value remains the same with AMR remaining incredibly undervalued. I wouldn't be surprised to see AMR buyback even more shares going into next year after using all of their authorization by the end of this year. If share prices don't recover, we would see them tracking towards 12 million shares by end of Q1 '23.
  • c
    cben15606
    Coal miners are the place to be. Met and Thermal are now and will stay at hugely profitable prices for quite a long while. Peabody at WY conf last week said EU cannot get enough coal. "They will burn anything". Lotsa Met being sold for thermal/steam and why met prices still so good. Met is in surprisingly high demand. Australia having rain issues bigger than our rail issues.

    Heaven help America if the greenies keep scamming us the way EU greenies did them.
  • F
    Foster
    Nice moves in Coal stocks today. I hold HCC but I have been following AMR and ARCH too. I don't see any specific news to account for this. I will take it!
  • T
    The poorly behaved boxer
    Pretty good news got released yesterday by AMR. Buybacks have reduced share count to under 17 million by 8/31 (roughly 2+ million shares less) and they still have ~$270 million left to go. By end of year, we could have 15 million shares outstanding and looking at a another excellent year in 2023. Company remains significantly undervalued.

    Also, AMR announced that they have locked in 4.8 million tons for domestic with pricing getting wrapped up shortly. I expect around the $200 mark, hopefully higher. That would once again cover all costs outside of direct costs to produce the tonnage, ensuring another positive year. If we get pricing to remain at or near today's values, we are looking at $50-60 2023 EPS. Looking like AMR will earn its market cap in 2 years (2022+2023), market continues to fail to recognize this.
    Bullish
  • H
    Heather
    About $4 billion in revenue with a $2B market cap, AMR is ridiculously cheap. Sure, the markets are under pressure. But AMR is not a tech stock, and the economic downturn will have little or no effect on their earnings. The analyst at Cowen and others are very high on AMR, as their $225 price target implies. I'm in, and I'm staying long no matter what. Who knows? Maybe ARCH would buy them with a 50% premium.
  • F
    Foster
    What is the general thinking on this message board about how inflation impacts this company? I noticed that AMR was up today early on and it is still flat on terrible down day. I may buy this sooner than later but right now I am heavy into HCC instead. Truthfully, I see zero activity on the HCC message board so I am reaching out to you guys instead. AMR is virtually identical but larger company than HCC. Is AMR a Union company? I don't want to get in a union discussion but I know there are union issues ongoing at HCC. I am just trying to get a feel for the overall industry. What about selling Met coal into the Thermal market? Is that abnormal or even possible? Is there any reason Met Coal can't be used to make electricity? I understand that it is normally used for steel production. Thanks for your responses.
  • E
    ExtremelyHopefulInvestor
    Good day for shorting. Remember the Fed most likely raises rates tomorrow. The question is how big?
  • C
    CM
    How much of the AMR coal production can be sold as Thermal, about 25%?
    Can they focus on thermal while the pricing is so good compared to Met. Also looks like the MET market is weak right now.
  • R
    Robin
    AMR should have solid Q3 - They hedged a bunch of met coal at high prices for 2H so less exposed to lower spot rates. Plus they booked-up their thermal at much higher prices. Expect accelerated buyback activity.
  • c
    cben15606
    Thermal and met coal in the green today and strong lately while the miners tank. Hope they go even lower so I can get even better bargains. No demand destruction in coal.
  • T
    Tradedollarnut
    A word of warning - last quarter amr chart looking eerily similar to this quarter’s chart. If they play out the same, the next 5-6 trading days will be horrendous. Check out June 28-July 6 and do an overlay of the two full quarter’s action.
  • M
    Milo Selhi
    If we compare this to TTD, which has a PE of 900, we can infer that the fair price for AMR is $56,800/share. The market doesn't care about PE or fundamentals. Let this retest the lows around $100 before going long
  • F
    Foster
    What on earth is wrong with these Met Coal stocks today?? I own HCC and I can't get any info on the decline so I am simply looking around the industry and I see you guys are in the same boat. Thoughts?
  • T
    The poorly behaved boxer
    Hey All!
    Quick pricing update:

    US East Cost High Vol B up to $277.50 now, seeing it going for more than that on the thermal side.
    Aussie & Low Vols going for about $300 now, so the swing back up is happening.

    Contracting season is upon us and current prices get us to $210 or so for the domestic tons. Last year AMR got $189 for domestic (total $195 with export lock in) so assuming the same % lock in for 2023, looking at another $15-20 right now to the bottom line on 4.5 million tons. I wouldn't be surprised to see it above that so 2023 is looking solid so far. In Q4 of 2021, AMR made $13.30 per share with realized pricing for ALL met tons at $197. No debt, less shares outstanding, and slightly more production means that another $50-60 EPS year is in the cards for 2023. Still a ways out but locking that in would definitely be nice!
  • J
    James
    How low can the PE go. I hope AMR, and Arch, pay off all loans this year. Then they have 0 owed to banks and then build a war chest to borrow form them self later if needed. PE =1.95 Crazy, I guess because its coal.
  • O
    Ofellow
    AMR should be buying their stock!
  • E
    ERICW
    The market closed down over 600 points And AMR was up $11 I can live with that
    Bullish
  • c
    cben15606
    Newcastle, Europe coal prices at new record highs today
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