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Amyris, Inc. (AMRS)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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6.09+0.13 (+2.18%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
6.22 +0.13 (+2.13%)
After hours: 06:59PM EST
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  • M
    Mitch
    It appears to me that unlike last week where there appeared to be higher volume on price dips, this week so far the higher volume coincides with price increases. I'm no technical analyst by any means. But, I'm curious if some of you have technical analytical experience and a) see this pattern; and b) whether it means there is price support somewhere around here or momentum for continued increases. Thanks.
  • A
    Aldoc
    Squalane+CBG = muscle pain relief, acne, psoriasis,

    Reb M = 20x the sweetness of stevia without the medicine taste and calories

    The ONLY synthetic bio company able to scale ALL of its molecules.

    The ONLY synthetic bio company with fuel contract with the US military.

    Undervalued at $25, a STEAL below $10

    Check it out,….
  • E
    Eddy
    AMRS granted a brand new US patent#11,193,078 "Olefins and methods for making the same"
    Bullish
  • N
    Neal
    I got into Amrs for the same reason I got into Enph. I want to make a bunch of money. But I’m not in to make a quick buck. I hope they are not wasting money as many here seem to imply. But I don’t care if the strategy is go long and go big without care for investors with short time horizons. I’ll wait a couple of years. Doesn’t seem too risky if the demand is there and there is a path to profitability within a year or two. I can’t see any strategy that key investors would approve that just let management drain the till for their own benefit.
  • N
    Nadeem
    Don't be selling at these price levels, you are only helping Shorts at this point. Shorts probably did well the past month sitting here and been the case with a lot of other stocks recently. I always avoid the Short game, there aren't many millionaires who managed to stay as millionaires being a Short. On the other hand if you are a smart long investor you generally do well, time is on your side, you got to have patience though.

    Look at the huge gap that was created with the fall from the ER miss, those gaps always get filled again, it may take a couple of months but mark my post, it will get filled. We will be back to double digits again. Our losses are only on paper but if you sell you are taking that loss, with no hope for a recovery, you may think that you will get back in time just to catch the ride up, but you can never time these moves perfectly, so might as well ignore the short-term noise.

    The Omi variant will put a damper in the market, but soon the market moves on and no matter the dangers of that variant, stocks will begin to rise again. This variant will never cause the same amount of fear like the original Covid did. Give it a few weeks and once the tax-loss selling is done, there is no where but to go up with this stock.

    AMRS was at $4 last year (that was the real value) Ask yourself why will it be valued at $4 again? It has $500 Million in cash now, 4 more brands, Biossance continuing to set records, the new plant is over 50% done.

    I get it that its got the same Melo running the company, and that's why we are so heavily discounted. However the company itself has made decent progress. More than 30% YOY revenue growth is no joke.

    Hold on to your seats the bumpy road is about to end!
  • S
    Sydney
    What is the point of a Board of Directors. Are they a rubber stamp for Doerr? How is Melo not feeling the heat? I keep thinking about college football. If he were a coach, he would have been fired. Even Twitter demoted Dorsey (I am talking about years ago). I don’t think Melo is qualified to run a large scale up operation. Did you see the cash burn for Q3, when we were supply constrained? Why not tighten it up, and try to earn profits? Why is everything full steam ahead no matter the realities. Amrs did two dilutions just this year on record earnings, and they are still losing money hand over fist. Melo promised cash positive this year. What a joke. Why not accountability. He wouldn’t even face his critics, just did a hostage video. As so many have mentioned, why not open his wallet and buy shares
    I am long Amrs and am not going anywhere, but I am more than tired of Melo’s BS. We need a CEO who has real experience running this type of operation. Let Melo be the visionary but demote him. Institutional investors are bailing and that faith isn’t coming back. The share price would easily double on the news
    Sorry for the rant but enough is enough.
  • W
    Wantedtoretireearly
    Good post from DealWithIt (Lucky?) on Seeking Alpha:

    Tax loss selling season is always a great time to make 30% or so on short term plays over the course of a couple months. I was watching OLED, DM, INSG, ITRM (I did buy some OLED and ITRM today) and a few others trying to figure out which would tank the most and provide the best return.....AMRS just kind of jumped in front of most of the them today.
    If you run the numbers AMRS around 7 today is a much better value than when it was trading at 2 two years ago.
    Doesn't mean it's going up tomorrow or next month....just means if it does tank further the individual value in the brands will eventually bring it back up again. Kind of an insurance policy.
    Neutral
  • W
    Wantedtoretireearly
    Melo acknowledged the frustration of many longer term investors in the share price collapse. Blames much of it on the capital raise, which is not true. That would have made the stock decrease maybe by 15%, not 55%. It was mostly their miss on the numbers.

    Says that they felt they needed to do this given how inexpensive the capital was. Claims we have no further need for capital. (Not believable, given he's said that constantly in the past.) Says the balance sheet is very strong now.

    q. What needs to happen for AMRS to hit the revenue goals given how much lower revenues will be this year? A. The combination of our existing and new brands will get us to 1.4B that we need to get to $2B in 2025. The rest is ingredients. We aim to be the leading company in clean beauty. JVN is growing at 2-3 times the rate of Olaplex.

    The highest value for chemistry is in beauty.

    Seeing significant expansion possibilities in China.

    Q. How derisked is the current portfolio? A. For the new brands, we are not dependent on new technology. The core is already in house. JVN and Rose Inc. will each do $20m in revenue in their first year. Unheard of.

    He has admitted that that need to manage the street much more effectively. The analyst Agrees :(
  • J
    James Thottam
    Update: Amyris (Ticker: AMRS)

    The latest results from AMRS from the Black Friday holidays came in.

    In parsing through the words, most notable were the following key points:

    1. Black Friday Week more than doubled the prior year's sales for the corresponding week at over $10MM adding credence to next year's consumer products growth estimates.

    2. A record of 791,000 consumer visits online (why is this important: Once a consumer tries the product and/or the online experience, they often times become a recurring customer which creates an annuity in sales)

    3. ~50% of sales came from higher margin/profitably online sales channels.

    4. They have been able to "work through the supply chain challenges thus far this quarter and meet strong demand for our consumer products". This should help allay concerns about Q4's performance and having a repeat "miss" on revenue guidance of between $330MM to $370MM.

    5. There is a reiteration of the South African clinical trials (as part of the Joint Venture with Immunity Bio). This gives me hope that they are seeing positive progress in that area and what was "icing on the cake" may soon become the "cake".

    As always, do your own due diligence, make your decisions, and invest at your own risk.

    Happy Investing and Happy Holidays!
    [auto]
    [auto]
    investors.amyris.com
  • W
    Wantedtoretireearly
    From the just completed Evercore call. Melo admits he is still making fundamental management mistakes after all these years. Glad he is admitted that investors are very frustrated and that they plan on managing Wall Street better.

    But duh! You are a public company. That's a key part of the job.

    I love how the analyst says "value disconnect" between share price and intrinsic value. Melo blames it on the sector. Baloney. It's management's past performance that has done the damage. DNA has not taken anything like the hit that AMRS has.

    Melo says he done raising capital. Baloney based on his past history and the huge on going cash burn. It cant be believed until they actually start making money. When will that be? Who knows - no mention of that on the call. Maybe end of next year?

    Melo did finally say this: "Beat and raise needs to be their moto. They need to be super ambitious internally and super conservative externally and once they execute on that, the share price will take care of itself." You've been running this company for 10 years and you just got the message on that now? Really?

    I do believe in the science the long term potential of this platform, but man Melo and Han have made this far more difficult than it needed to be. The market is sending you a message Melo. LISTEN TO IT!
    Neutral
  • A
    Andrea
    I’ve managed to add some yesterday at 6.15, now I really see the potential of this company like I did on ENPH, I’ll buy even more at 5s. Here’s what I think, given the good purposes and the products (sustainable chemistry and synthesis) we are paying 5 to 6 dollars for a 100 dollar stock, governments are thinking too much on green energy but not giving any priority on sustainable process like Amyris, this is a 100-300 dollar stock in a 10 years time frame, I’m 25 years old and definitely bullish.
    Bullish
  • W
    Wantedtoretireearly
    Not too long ago, like a day or two ago this was at 6.66. Has lost an additional dollar already at this low valuation. The brands like Biossance and Pipette are worth the market cap alone at this price, and that does not take into account their platform or other brands.
    Neutral
  • W
    Wantedtoretireearly
    Fascinating stuff from our partner Immunity Bio. Only stock I follow that is green today. If this actually works, it would be a game changer. PSS is betting $1B that it will. Largest bio tech deal in the history of Australia. I really hope it works out for all involved. Can be used to target cancers and Covid:

    ImmunityBio and EnGeneIC to advance nanocell tech for cancer treatment and COVID-19 vaccine
    30-Nov-2021 By Rachel Arthur

    Australian biotech EnGeneIC, which is developing its nanocell tech for use in infectious diseases (including a COVID-19 vaccine) as well as a cancer treatment, has announced a deal with US biotech ImmunityBio to develop, manufacture and commercialize the tech.
    Neutral
  • D
    David
    The company is really close to breakeven and to profitability. It has momentum. If sales will grow 30% from here, this will be a company to own.
  • E
    Eddy
    AMRS had record Black Friday sales, that is without the new Brazil factory, cannot wait until the factory is up and running, and their COVID-19 Vaccine hits the market. IMO keep on loading.
  • E
    Erik
    Anybody know if Amyris uses OKR's -John Doerr's holy grail of business success (I recommend the book)?
    ~3700 shares here (avg 10$, ouch), buying ~400 more a month, more when can (small fish, yeah, but hey, have to start somewhere). Aiming for 10K at avg ~10. Knowing they follow Doerr's management recommendations would be great.

    Hey Amyris, where's the shaving lotion, aftershave, deodorant, cologne, bath gel, hand soap, & lotion for men, as well as the house candles, air freshener, dish soap, laundry soap, and all purpose de-sanitizer for the family? talk about clean beauty and household. Come on Amyris.
    Bullish
  • N
    Nadeem
    Current Market Cap of AMRS is $2 Billion dollars. After the convert they have close to zero debt (Yes never in their history) approx $500 Million in cash. *They have $50 million debt remaining but that's with JD and he will convert it too.

    So if you were to sell AMRS today in parts, we have the following:
    1) $500 Million cash
    2) Biossance (Almost $1 Billion)
    3) Pipette + JVN + Rose Inc + Terasana + Costa Brazil ($1 Billion - very conservative)
    That is $2.5 Billion already. Now add to that:

    4) Purecane,
    5) Ingredients B2B - Not sure what value to put on that?
    5) Ingredients (Squalene, CBG, Reb M etc)
    6) Other Ingredients in Pipeline developed - 13
    7) Ingredients in developing stage - 24
    (Now Melo has sold ingredients in the past as a one time deal if he wants to a partner, in the range of $50 - $100 Million, so that gives an idea of their value pipeline)

    If you put a very conservative value of $2.5 Billion for 4 - 7 above. We are at $5 Billion and that's not even counting the value of the AMRS platform (The golden goose that keeps laying golden eggs)

    So even with a doomsday scenario, if AMRS was to be sold for parts today, it's atleast worth $5 Billion, that translates to $12.50 a share (fully diluted). That is double of what it is today. Hope you all keep this in mind, have some patience and have a great Thanksgiving!
  • J
    James Thottam
    Crazy Idea (Melo or anyone from AMRS if you are listening, just tossing this out as an option)

    Use a portion of the remaining proceeds to enter a share repurchase program.
    (i.e., after paying off the debt, the capex, remaining acquisitions, and the capped calls)

    I know this sounds crazy (just after issuing a convertible debt), but let's break down this "insane" idea just a little:

    1. From the prior investor calls we know the company expects to have $300MM in remaining cash post the expenditures noted above (and presumably will use it for future working capital and/or growth initiatives).

    2. We also know that the "effective" conversion price (after the capped calls) will be about $15.95/share. This translates to ~43.26MM shares (given $690MM in convertible debt).

    3. At the current share price of $5.97/share, the conversion share obligation would require about $258MM of the remaining $300MM to cover all 43.26MM shares.

    4. This leaves over $40MM in cash from the Convertible Debt left for working capital in addition to the funds the company had from prior to the offering.

    So the company would a non-dilutive position with an incremental $40MM+ to achieve all its goals of paying off the prior debt, paying for the Capex requirements, completing the know near-term acquisitions, and entering the cap calls for protection.

    All at the cost of 1.5% on the $690MM converitble debt (which we know to be effectively the same nominal interest expense as the prior debt which is now being paid off).

    Now you would be smart to point out a few things:

    a. "James, the share price would not stay the same at $5.97 if they did that"
    CORRECT: but then simply create a floor by announcing the authorization of a Share Repurchase program which would provide support as opposed to the mayhem on the share price now (and if the company can pick up as many shares as possible at that price....all the better....plus it would drive the shorts out as there would be little to gain at that point and they would have to cover their positions and potentially create a squeeze on the stock).

    b. "James, they may need more than the working capital of $40MM+ since that may not be enough to get them to cash flow positive"
    CORRECT: However, they can set the floor at some price (e.g., $5.97) and (as noted above) use only a portion of the $300MM remaining convertible proceeds and even a fraction of that would serve to catalyze support of the company's stock.

    The key is that the remaining proceeds were meant to be opportunistic for the Company in providing the highest return to shareholders, and with the unanticipated fall in the share price, it seems like it could be prudent to examine a share repurchase strategy to focus not just on topline growth (which the expenses noted above focus on), but also on possibly returning value to shareholders by eliminating/reducing the dilutive effect of the convertible (beyond just the capped calls).

    So, in summary, it reduces (even potentially eliminates) the announced dilution from the convertible without taking away from the cash needs of the company noted above.

    Okay, looking forward to having everyone "throw up" on this idea.......but just wanted to get it out there.

    Happy Holidays and Happy Investing!
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy
    Thank you short sellers... three days later, buying back could be painful... IMO keep on loading.
    Bullish
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