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Amyris, Inc. (AMRS)

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2.9900+0.3600 (+13.69%)
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3.0400 +0.05 (1.67%)
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  • G
    Guy
    So if you go to the AMRS investor page today and fast forward to around the 39 minute mark, Melo says that of the 4 significant transactions, 3 are in the contracting phase and he expects one will close by end of the year. Proceeds will be over 350m from these transactions. Says that the value of certain molecules (he did not specify which ones) are higher than expected based on the demand for natural sustainable products by consumers. Says he hired BNP Paribas to help advise on transactions because they have expertise in this area. The deals will be a combination of both cash and milestone payments over a number of years.

    So can you trust him? The answer is no, based on past promises broken. Market won't move this until concrete news of a deal is worked out. Maybe we get one this year, the others are definitely next year, most likely in Q1.
    Neutral
  • N
    Nadeem
    In today's PR about mini-virtual Investor series, which I think is a good idea, keeps the momentum going.

    It was also mentioned: "The Company has continued to advance the contemplated strategic transactions and expects to provide an update during the December event."

    Anyone want to decode this Melospeak? Does that feel like they are making good progress to close the asset sale by EOY, or does it feel like the opposite, and it may not close by Q4?

    I feel because they pulled guidance, asset sale is not happening by EOY, any thoughts?
  • p
    peter
    Im hoping the increased sales is for squalene for Phizer's supply chain shortages. Melo said it could spread vaccines exponentially. I can't remember the number of how many fold and couldn't go back. does anyone remember? A bit of optimism but ginkgo is working with Moderna in a similar capacity.
  • J
    JOHN GM
    https://amyris.com/ill-take-my-cannabinoids-biotech-please/

    Posted on the site after yesterday's closing!
    I’ll Take My Cannabinoids Biotech, Please » Amyris
    amyris.com
  • N
    Nadeem
    Definitely a good PR. Biossance the brand that matters to them the most (and is most profitable) is seeing 3X growth compared to last year.

    I believe the numbers maybe as follows:
    By Q3 2020, they already bagged $94 Million in revenue. With today's PR indicating they are on track to do the same amount of consumer revenue as the entire 2019, I believe Han has categorized consumer revenue under Product (I can't remember which PR they mentioned that)
    So for Q4 2020 we can estimate approx $60 Million in product revenue.

    That gives us $150 Million in the bag (Now there can't be a Vitamin E type disaster here as product revenues are consistent). So I think $150 Million for 2020 is a safe bet. There is also potential of royalties, in 2019 it was $50Million in 2018 it was $8, if we take a number in between be conservative like $25 million, that gives us a total of $175Million. However Melo originally was shooting for $200 Million+. We know collabs are going to be all time low, so $30 - $50Million has to come from an Asset sale, which is a stretch goal, which only Melo thinks can happen, unless he proves it.

    I think most of the analysts have adjusted expectations for Q4 with no asset sale. So $150 Million is within their expectations or $60Million for Q4. Anything above that would be a positive.
    Bullish
  • d
    donald
    Evercore ISI conference: Melo just reiterated 180 to 200m this year.
  • d
    donald
    Asset sales not 200m but 350. One hopefully before year-end. 350m would include long term royalties.
  • d
    donald
    2019 AMRS consumer business only. Pipette. Biossance and Purecane only.
    Q 1= 3m Q2=4m Q3=4, Q4=7m Total 2019 consurmer=18m

    According to PR today, "We are on track to deliver as much sales revenue for our consumer business in the fourth quarter as we did for the entirety of 2019.""
  • J
    Johannes
    Im out.
    No Profit, no Loss.
    But I keep watching this.
    Switching anyway more to divident stocks.
    Dividend stocks now 30% of my portfolio and will slowly become more.
  • G
    Guy
    • Tomorrow could be a historic day for the cannabis sector if the House of Representatives votes to approve the MORE Act on cannabis legalization as expected. While the bill will be almost surely blocked by Mitch McConnell in the Senate, there is still some focus on the vote, according to Cowen.
    • "Key to watch in the House is whether re-elected Democrats vote against the MORE Act or if re-elected Republicans vote in favor of the bill. As the Democratic margin will shrink next year, these defections could tell us whether the MORE Act could pass next year," observes Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg.
    • Seiberg calls the cannabis Senate stall frustrating, but reminds that legislation typically takes years to pass. "Real efforts to legalize cannabis are only two or three years old. To get a House floor vote this soon is extraordinary and it only reinforces our view that it is just a question of when -- not if -- Congress legalizes cannabis," he notes.
    • Stocks to watch: Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA), Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB), Aphria (APHA), Hexo (NYSE:HEXO), Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY), Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC), OrganiGram (NASDAQ:OGI), KushCo (OTCQX:KSHB), Green Thumb Industries (OTCQX:GTBIF), Trulieve Cannabis (OTCQX:TCNNF), Curaleaf Holdings (OTCPK:CURLF) and Cronos Group (NASDAQ:CRON).
    • ETFs in the mix: ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (NYSEARCA:MJ) Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (NYSEARCA:CNBS) and AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (NYSEARCA:YOLO).
  • m
    meow
    https://amyris.com/keeping-life-sweet-sustainable-calorie-free/

    "
    To get this new sweetener into the hands of everyone who needs it, we first sold RealSweet™ Sugarcane Reb M to health-conscious companies like Shaklee Corporation to use in their products. Then we realized that to make an even greater impact, the sweetener should be available to consumers to use at home. Enter the Amyris brand Purecane,™ the first no-calorie sweetener with Sugarcane Reb M that can be used in place of sugar in baked goods and deserts of all kinds, and easily dissolves into drinks like coffee, tea or cocktails.
    "

    How come we have not heard Melo pumping RealSweet?
    Keeping Life Sweet, Sustainable, & Calorie-Free » Amyris
    amyris.com
  • S
    SH
    The annual Commission on Narcotic Drugs, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime's governing body, voted 27-25 with one abstention to remove cannabis and cannabis resin from Schedule IV of the 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs, a global text governing drug controls, a UN statement said
  • m
    meow
    Amyris Purecane store 50% off today. If they can still make money with 50% off, maybe they already solved the yield problem? Hope razain deal will come soon.
  • d
    dealwithit
    Just a few short thought on AMRS since I own a few shares again:1) The lawsuit is noise and is just being used by LAVVAN in an attempt to gain leverage to exit their contract with as little payout as possible. AMRS wants and expects to exit it also, for their own reasons, as they have wrote off the 8M owed by LAVVAN on their A/R and have lowered the AS606 expected revenue going forward to pretty much zero. In the end LAVVAN will move on to some other producer that they think will offer them a better deal and AMRS will start selling CBD molecules on their own (included in skin products at Biossance first).2) Melo is going no where.....Doerr is the only one that could give him the boot and for a decade has shown zero interest in doing that (in spite of 2B in combined losses). If 2B in losses wasn't enough to get him tossed another 200M (before they should turn profitable) isn't going to do it either. Bottom line...if you invest in AMRS you're investing in Melo.3) Vaccines are just Melo's way of pumping something and not going to result in large sums of money.....either one time or annually. The vaccines pumps never showed up until the LAVVAN deal completely collapsed and they basically just replaced LAVVAN's pumps....just as LAVVAN pumps replaced HMO pumps in 18 months ago when research in HMO#$%$ a brick wall. Best case is 20M a year or maybe a sale for 50M straight up. 4) Biossance and the beauty brand will continue to put a floor under the share price as their sales continue to grow and they turn profitable this quarter. Because of the connection with Li on their BOD expect Biossance to move into China rapidly. Odds are Biossance alone is worth the current EV...which is why the trading range, even if they dilute again, will hold. 5) Odds are Melo's pump of 200M in non core assets will at best be 50M...which will still be pretty impressive. They will still need another 150M to get them through the next 12 months when recurring revenues should turn them profitable....but that's doable if the share price moves above 3 and those 50M or so in warrants hit at 2.87.6) The elephant in the room for AMRS is not vaccines or Biossance or any of other ingredients....it's Purecane. Why? Simple...the world's sugar market is massive (50B plus) and in the US alone the average person consumes 3 lbs a week (and all of it tastes great and is horrible for your body). Purecane is perfectly positioned to take advantage of this and scale up quickly and massively because of Riazen. So why hasn't it taken off and why hasn't Raizen been heard from (they signed a joint deal with Melo about 2 years ago)? The reason there has been no action and sales have been light is simple and the same reason LAVVAN is suing them....the initial yields for both Reb M and CBD suck (resulting in high cost factors). Look at last year's 5X improvement in yield for Purecane as an example....no way you improve that much in that short of time unless you start from a very high/bad number. Even this year the trend lower continues as it's improved another 50% from there (which is why they now are offering 40% discounts on their website even as demand increases). I said this a year ago and will say it again for those that forget.....if you see a PR stating Raizen is going ahead with a joint factory it's time to stop trading and just go all in regardless of the how high the initial jump is. The reason is simple.....it means the yield number is finally at a point where Raizen feels it's competitive with sugar (remember the US puts tariffs on sugar up to 90% from Brazil). My current position is to trade AMRS when it moves to the higher end of it's trading range....but can change my mind in a minute if something changes. Remember....AMRS is not alone in the stock universe. It's all related and the combo of Tanaka's TSLA pumps and energy shares hitting ridiculous levels caused me to fully exit my position last time. What the future holds is not certain for any company...and especially here with Melo in charge.
  • S
    SH
    New PR Q4 consumer business revenue will be as much as all of 2019. 2019 product revenue was 59.9 million. Not sure what is the breakdown of the 59.9 between consumer and ingredients. If it was 50/50. Then consumer revenue will be 30.

    YTD 2020 88.6. Adding 30 will be 118.6. There is a gap of 80 mil to 200 or 60 mil to 180.

    Will collaboration, royalties and ingredients sales be enough to make up the gap ??

    That is if the Q4 product revenue PR is substantiable 😉
  • S
    SH
    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37321656

    Omega oil from farmed salmon has halved in 5 years.

    Can amyris technology ferment omega oil from sugar cane ?
    Omega oil from substantial sugar cane will eliminate exposure to Mercury contamination in salmon fishes

    Certainly the authority approval, convincing consumer acceptance and commercially viability can be challenging.
    Levels of beneficial omega-3 oils in farmed salmon have fallen significantly in the past five years.
    Levels of beneficial omega-3 oils in farmed salmon have fallen significantly in the past five years.
    www.bbc.com
  • R
    Russ
    Black Friday over $1M for Biossance. Cyber Monday an additional 10k+ orders alone and with taking the Q3 average value order of $76.16 that approaches another $1M. That does not include any traffic on Saturday or Sunday. Great start to December and hopefully a monstrous Q4!
    Bullish
  • R
    Reflect
    The new investor PR is kinda goofy but after reading and mulling it over, I think it’s a very good idea. Letting investors dig deep into business operations will go a long way towards curing the disparity in valuation.

    Doesn’t change the thesis in either direction or anything, but definitely a positive step in rebuilding Amyris’ trust and image.
    Neutral
  • G
    G_Joe
    If we can ferment CBD & CBG, why can't we also ferment the THC? Seems like that would be a higher-margin molecule.
  • G
    Guy
    Here is the Cowen note. Makes good points

    https://stocktwits.com/Jdorkshire/message/259292132
    @mchandross
    @mchandross
    stocktwits.com