Hi all , I wanted to share my calculation and ask for advice or correction from more experienced people here. As for what I understand $CHMA was purchased by $AMYT based on the announcement today. Every CHMA stock will be converted to AMYT stock at a ration of 1:0.396 , hence every 5 CHMA stock will grant their owner 2 AMYT stocks. this process based on my understanding diluted AMYT stock price for the short term. hopefully the purchase will yield profits in the future but this is a gamble for the long run . for now there are 41.79M outstanding CHMA shares , that by ration of 0.396 will become 16.54M AYMT share. currently, AYMT has 35.88M shares outstanding , and in the end of the purchase will have 52.42M shares. 35.88/52.42 = 0.6844 hence the AYMT stock should be diluted around 32% for the short term. taking its value to be 13.5 based on last 3 months (pretty high but lets be optimistic) , the new value after dilution should be : 13.5*0.68= 9.18$ a share. assuming the real value of AYMT did not change , not by assets or anything else. this is only math wise.
is it right by far ?
other considerations : a) CLAIM (cons) - The value might be lower than 9.18$ for the short term : As CHMA still not FDA approved, more money will need to be spent before any profit will come (at least 1-2 years) , hence the expenses grow at start which will drive the share price down at next reports.
b) CLAIM (pro) - the price will be higher than 9.18$ , my estimate 10-11$ a share as the optimism is around, purchase is considered a good thing, to grow the business.... and this will translate into share price regardless of book value or with taking into account future revenues, at least at the short term.
I cant see any justification not to sell my AMYT share now and buy them back again in 3 months time.
any advice , correction to the above ? pls correct my logic if you think otherwise.
This was my best buy. This is still my best buy. AND it's gonna get higher i hope
Bullish
Y
Amryt Pharma is down 8.33% to 6.82
Y
Amryt Pharma is up 6.98% to 6.74
s
Price drop is down to de-listing form the UK AIM market. This will cause a number of forced sales. Understand why, but could it not have been better handled?
F
PDUFA date under priority review November 30, 2021
Bullish
C
AMYT is raising revenue guidance for FY 2021 from prior guidance of between $210M - $215M to a range of $220M - $225M.
Bullish
R
average price target is $35. why are we still trading in 10-11 range?
C
Buy rating with $45 price target.
Bullish
y
This is a holding company that has acquired a number of wonderful companies that are each worthwhile and have potential, I do not see the realization of synergy in products and certainly not in value
d
Snake oil bark extract
Bearish
K
We're running to EMA CHMP and PDUFA dates. Looking really good.
I wanted to share my calculation and ask for advice or correction from more experienced people here.
As for what I understand $CHMA was purchased by $AMYT based on the announcement today.
Every CHMA stock will be converted to AMYT stock at a ration of 1:0.396 , hence every 5 CHMA stock will grant their owner 2 AMYT stocks.
this process based on my understanding diluted AMYT stock price for the short term. hopefully the purchase will yield profits in the future but this is a gamble for the long run .
for now there are 41.79M outstanding CHMA shares , that by ration of 0.396 will become 16.54M AYMT share.
currently, AYMT has 35.88M shares outstanding , and in the end of the purchase will have 52.42M shares.
35.88/52.42 = 0.6844
hence the AYMT stock should be diluted around 32% for the short term.
taking its value to be 13.5 based on last 3 months (pretty high but lets be optimistic) , the new value after dilution should be :
13.5*0.68= 9.18$ a share.
assuming the real value of AYMT did not change , not by assets or anything else.
this is only math wise.
is it right by far ?
other considerations :
a) CLAIM (cons) - The value might be lower than 9.18$ for the short term :
As CHMA still not FDA approved, more money will need to be spent before any profit will come (at least 1-2 years) , hence the expenses grow at start which will drive the share price down at next reports.
b) CLAIM (pro) - the price will be higher than 9.18$ , my estimate 10-11$ a share as the optimism is around, purchase is considered a good thing, to grow the business.... and this will translate into share price regardless of book value or with taking into account future revenues, at least at the short term.
I cant see any justification not to sell my AMYT share now and buy them back again in 3 months time.
any advice , correction to the above ?
pls correct my logic if you think otherwise.
thanks.
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