ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
28.06
+0.94 (+3.47%)
At close: 4:02PM EDT
Stock chart is not supported by your current browser
Previous Close27.12
Open27.24
Bid26.14 x 3100
Ask28.48 x 1100
Day's Range27.17 - 28.23
52 Week Range15.28 - 29.69
Volume2,216,473
Avg. Volume2,374,646
Market Cap1.869B
Beta (3Y Monthly)0.72
PE Ratio (TTM)25.98
EPS (TTM)1.08
Earnings DateMay 30, 2019 - Jun 3, 2019
Forward Dividend & Yield0.80 (2.92%)
Ex-Dividend Date2019-03-07
1y Target Est24.50
Trade prices are not sourced from all markets
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    Ever since Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) changed the game for all brick-and-mortar retailers, the industry's has been suffering to catch up. In the last five years, Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) stock is down 11% while the S&P 500 is up 55% for the same period.Source: Shutterstock URBN waited too long to react seriously to the AMZN threat and now they are in scrambling mode -- and when you scramble you don't execute plans well. The reaction to the recent earnings suggests that URBN management has its work cut out for it.There is good news in the URBN stock chart as it rallied to a high of 25% off the March 25 lows. It has since given back a decent portion of the rally but it's still an impressive move nonetheless. However, today's writeup is a cautionary note against jumping aboard the stock too early.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Don't Buy URBN Stock YetIt is tempting to chase the recent analyst upgrades to URBN stock. The technicals, however, suggest that these upgrades are more on the hopes of a turnaround than a valid argument. This is not the same as me hating on the stock, but they say price is truth, so why not wait for a change in price action? I don't want to chase URBN stock until it clearly beats $35 per share. * 5 Stocks to Profit From (Legal) Insider Buying Signals Until then, onus is on the bulls to prove that they can sustain the rally and break the long-term negative trend. Once it does, the upside potential will be big as there are many more analysts to upgrade the stock.It is important to note that URBN is suffering while the consumer has never been healthier. The transition to e-tailing is proving tricky as AMZN keeps upping the ante. It is a master at operating on thin margins, making it mandatory for URBN and its peers to also do that. And it's hard to create a physical marketplace without spending a lot so their hands are tied.Consumer spending habits have changed and it's a permanent one. The days of going to the mall to shop are fading as online retailing is taking over. This is not likely to change so companies like Urban Outfitters have to adjust to it or die. Valuing URBN StockSo for the last five years, Urban Outfitters stock has traded inside a massive seesaw from a $17 to $50. Currently it's it's almost in the middle of the range and therein lies part of the problem. These pivot areas on a stock chart are magnetic so on the way up they become resistance.Both bulls and bears agree on the value here so they fight it out hard thereby creating congestion in the price action. So Urban Outfitters stalling while attempting to breach $34 per share wasn't a surprise. This was the ledge from which the stock fell apart in December. Going through it and regaining the level will require more work from the bulls.In order for them to mount a secondary and successful attack at the line, the bulls will have to first hold support above $30 per share otherwise they will continue trading inside of descending channel of lower highs and lower lows eventually set a new low for the year.Luckily the upside of falling prices is in most cases that it creates value. Urban Outfitters stock trades at a 11x trailing P/E ratio, which is low in absolute terms and middle of the range in relative terms. It's cheaper than Macy's (NYSE:M) but more expensive than Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF).So from an investment perspective, unless I want to commit to owning the shares for the super long term and hope it works out, there is no real reason to buy shares of URBN stock here. Without a catalyst, I fail to see the upside potential -- especially when it's already struggling in a rising equity market. The S&P 500 is up 15% for the year and almost setting new all-time highs, while Urban Outfitters stock is down 5% and can't snap out of its descending trend. The Bottom Line on Urban OutfittersThis is not the same as saying short the stock because I have nothing against the company or its prospects. I just don't like the price action it is going through. There is nothing about it that says turn around is coming without a catalyst. And just buying the stock and hoping it rebounds is more gambling than investing.Technically, there is also the threat of a weekly downside bearish scenario that could unfold. If we get a surprise dip in the stock market in general, Urban Outfitters stock could lose the $27.50-per-share level and that could trigger a major bearish pattern that would set new all-time lows. Although this is not a forecast it is a scenario that could unfold. * 7 Stocks That Can Outperform for Years For those who have been holding URBN stock for a while and haven't given up on it, it's probably okay to stay in it to see how the next few weeks on hold. However, if the price action continues to be bearish I would suggest buying some put protection from options just in case we get a Black Swan event that causes a big dip in the next few months. After all we're still facing global tariff wars with China and Europe.Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him as @racernic on Twitter and Stocktwits. 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    You might not know Duluth Holdings (NASDAQ:DLTH) by name. However, you almost certainly know their distinctive marketing campaign. Indeed, their commercials feature the right mix between broad appeal and humor, lifting the bull case for DLTH stock. * 7 High-Risk Stocks With Big Potential Rewards The structure is so simple yet so brilliant. Source: Bill McChesney via Flickr (modified) A cartoon character, typically a plump, middle-aged man, encounters a common problem with his attire. DLTH comes to the rescue with their unique brand of clothing. Our protagonist is happy, and the viewing audience is left in stitches. It's a shtick, but it's an effective one. Back in 2015, total revenue dollars didn't even crack a quarter-of-a-billion. Now, sales are well above half-a-billion. And while Duluth Holdings stock has had a wild ride since its initial public offering more than three years ago, the company has demonstrated potential.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsIf investments were graded only on narratives, DLTH stock would absolutely soar. Unfortunately, the markets also want to see results. That's where the apparel-maker with its lovable characters fell well short.As our own Karl Utermohlen reported, Duluth generated income of $20.8 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018. This number translates to approximately 64 cents per share, which was a significant improvement over the year-ago-quarter's results. Back then, the company produced earnings of 55 cents per share.However, this quarter, analysts were looking for earnings per share of 75 cents. In another blemish for DLTH stock, management rang up sales of $250.5 million. Again, this tally fell short of analysts' consensus expectations for $257.5 million.Adding to concerns, the apparel industry is extremely competitive. Fashion trends are unpredictable, especially among millennials. Therefore, I'm not surprised that Duluth Holdings stock dropped nearly 19% in after-hours trading. There's a Reason Why DLTH Stock TankedGiven the ugliness that has already happened and is sure to follow, your best bet is to steer clear. Duluth Holdings stock has turned into a falling knife, with a high probability of a stabbing.I say this because shares fell for a reason. Due to the law of small numbers, an up-and-coming organization can't afford to miss revenue expectations. Moreover, you don't want to miss sales and earnings targets.But if you dig a little deeper, you'll find that the revenue miss also has its own, nuanced explanation. According to Duluth CEO Stephanie Pugliese, the company overall enjoyed many successes in 2018, including rising sales in Q4.So, what happened? On the Q4 conference call, Pugliese disclosed that sales momentum remained strong through the first week of December. However, a broader consumer slowdown pressured the retail sector, eventually dooming DLTH stock.I'm assuming she's talking about the government shutdown, which likely had a disproportionate impact on Duluth Holdings stock. If you browse their website, Duluth apparel caters heavily towards the blue collar, outdoorsy type.When the government temporarily closed its doors, it didn't just negatively affect federal employees. It also affected business contracts and rural communities, which surround many impacted federal institutions. Under normal circumstances, rural life is tough. But when you have a government shutdown on top of it, it takes the wind out of you.Therefore, a substantial amount of Duluth's core customers had to dial back their spending. Certainly, the timing of the company's revenue dearth matches that of the shutdown.That doesn't mean I'm necessarily gung-ho on DLTH stock. However, I think the markets are making a mistake in not really listening to Pugliese's reasonable and logical explanation. Tailwinds for Duluth Holdings StockI really can't tell you how the markets will react to DLTH stock over the next few days. By the numbers, the Q4 earning report genuinely stunk up the room.But again, if you're risk-tolerant, look deeper. Inside, you'll find compelling tailwinds that distinguish DLTH from other apparel-makers like Gap (NYSE:GPS), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO), and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF).First, Duluth products emphasize function over form. For most of the field, it's the other way around. This helps DLTH stock in the long run, because the company isn't as levered to fashion whims as its rivals. As long as management produces practical, utilitarian clothes, they're pretty much golden.Second, Duluth customers love the company. Pugliese noted double-digit growth in the company's active user base. While a small detail, you shouldn't ignore it. This brand loyalty could one day lift DLTH stock from its current doldrums.Finally, that marketing gem of theirs will keep the Duluth name in the limelight for years to come. I don't have any brand association with the three companies I mentioned above, even though I've bought their products. * 10 Dangerous Dividend Stocks to Avoid I've never purchased Duluth clothing, but I remember several of their commercials. That's off-the-charts marketing, and at some point, it may translate to a higher share price.As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. 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