U.S. markets closed

Aphria Inc. (APHA.TO)

Toronto - Toronto Real Time Price. Currency in CAD
Add to watchlist
6.14+0.02 (+0.33%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
Sign in to post a message.
  • A
    Adnan
    Few days ago I posted the following below as a part of my revenue estimates. It included speculation as to what Canada July sales could be. Today we found out it was $231.6Mil or well above what I thought it could be. Therefore, June and July were 20+% higher than March and April. And we know March was big because of pantry stocking when Covid started. These are staggering numbers.
    So I think we may see (unless August was a dud) that Apha could grow their Adult Rec by as much as 25%-30% quarter over quarter rather than the 15% I thought.
    So, I think our Adult rec revenue could be $5-$7Mil higher than I thought.
    Now poor CC Parma numbers could wipe that all out of course.
    I think we could be looking at $170Mil thus a noticeable beat of the analysts estimates.
    I wonder if they will rework their numbers now.

    “Adult rec revenue grew quarter over quarter by 27% from $45Mil to $57Mil. These are rounded figures. This is the section that APHA should be judged by. This is where Canadian market grew 16.8% for our comparable quarters but APHA grew 27%.
    We now only know that June 2020 Canada sales were up to $201Mil compared to March 2020 of $181Mil. That is 11% growth nationwide. April and May 2020 in Canada were $178Mil and $186Mil. These are rounded numbers. Can Canada show July and August numbers at over $200Mil each??? I think it can. We will know July numbers next Monday, so 5 days away. I know it is a very imperfect comparison but we know Illinois numbers for both July and August and they were stellar. June was $45Mil if I recall and July and August were $61Mil and $64Mil record shattering numbers. I do not expect Canada to make this type jump but I can see it being an average of $205Mil per month for July and August. We’ll know more Monday.
    If we can go up by 15% quarter over quarter (so less than 27% for previous q over q growth) we could record $65Mil in revenue there.“
    Bullish
  • S
    Shaker & Mover
    Smoking hot — Aphria hits high in Canadian adult pot market
    Doug Schmidt • Windsor Star
    Publishing date:
    Sep 17, 2020 • Last Updated 12 hours ago • 3 minute read

    There might be bigger cannabis companies by market value and size in Canada, but nobody is dominating this country’s adult recreational pot market like Leamington-based Aphria Inc.

    “Aphria is killing it — the company is absolutely smoking it,” said Craig Wiggins, a cannabis industry analyst with The Cannalysts Inc.

    A Seattle-based cannabis data company, Headset, has Aphria in top spot in Ontario in a number of the big retail sales categories, including vapes, flower and pre-rolled joints. As of Wednesday, in fact, Aphria’s pre-rolled brands occupied all top five spots in Ontario, as well as seven in the top 10.

    In Alberta, Aphria had the top-selling brands in both the flower and vape categories, including the top three in the latter, according to Headset, which focuses on the growing American cannabis retail market but also tracks point-of-sale transactions in several Canadian provinces.

    “Collectively, we’re No. 1 across Canada — it’s a pretty compelling story,” Tamara Macgregor, Aphria’s chief corporate affairs officer, told the Star.
    “Why are they so dominant? Prices and quality,” said Wiggins. “Retailers are re-ordering (Aphria brands) because their customers want them.”

    Part of the compelling story is how Aphria has bucked the trend among Canada’s biggest licensed producers and increased its sales and share of the adult recreational use market in each of the past five fiscal quarters.
    “Month over month, its retail sales have been climbing — Aphria’s brands are sticky,” said Wiggins, using a term describing product attractiveness to purchasers.

    In the most recent fiscal quarter, Aphria’s Canadian recreational cannabis revenues approached $57 million, catapulting it ahead of Canadian giant Canopy Growth Corp.’s $51.5 million, according to a peer comparison compiled by The Cannalysts. Canopy Growth’s market capitalization — its total value as measured by investors — was $8.2 billion as of Wednesday, dwarfing Aphria’s $1.8 billion.
  • D
    Distant Drummer
    On the U.S. chart We are at a critical short-term .... but major... breakout which will change the trajectory of APHA. We are within a few cents of breaking out of the 300 Day Simple Moving Average at U.S. $ 4.71 and the 50 DSMA at U.S. $ 4.76. Those are areas where traders sell or shorts place stops. When we clear them, technically we should only see a bit of selling at U.S. 5.00 area and then a little heavier selling at U.S. $ 6-6.20 area and then it is wide open blue sky...... The Canadian chart is similar but prices a little higher because of the exchange rate but the U.S. trading sets the pace with 2 or 3 times the volume and Canada follows...... GLTYA.... Drummer
  • J
    John
    Canada sales $232 million for July up from $201 million in June! Solid growth!
  • D
    Distant Drummer
    After hours from TD on-line trading service:
    Aphria Inc forms bullish "Diamond Bottom" chart pattern
    Sep 17, 2020

    Trading Central has detected a "Diamond Bottom" chart pattern formed on Aphria Inc (APHA:NASDAQ). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $4.66 to the range of $5.10 - $5.20. The pattern formed over 24 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.
  • C
    Carolyn
    the Bullish Report on Aphria Inc.

    https://chart-analysis.tools/APHA
    Bullish
  • M
    Me
    When Aphria started ramping up production of the Double Diamond facility they were asked from analysts would there be greater sales costs associated with greater quantity of product. The answer was a firm yes. Quantity sold and dollars spent on the sales expenses are positively correlated. If you accept this premise to be true and interesting thing occurs. Aphria's two other competitors rushed to create massive production first without creating the demand. The other two major competitors are faced with cutting expenses. So, it is logical to believe that with decreasing sales budgets in the competitor's company there is a definite risk that they lose market share. An interesting change of events. An accidental arrangement where the license delayed company actually has an advantage at this stage of the game. Just something to think over.
  • F
    FMJ
    Two Sigma Advisors Boosted its Stake in Aphria, Dumped Aurora, Canopy and Tilray
  • B
    Brandon
    I own 1500 shares proud I own every share I did have money invested in ACB also but I pulled the plug on that as APHA way better
    Bullish
  • J
    Joe
    Nice close! Welcome change of pace from the usual sell off at the end of the day
  • A
    Adnan
    So here’s my revenue estimate for the current quarter to be reported I assume mid October.
    It is based on comparison from the past two quarters as well as publicly available MJ adult rec sales in Canada.
    Our current quarter includes June, July and August sales. We already know that Canada June sales are $201Mil, a record.
    Aphria revenues consist of:
    1. CC Pharma
    2. Cannabis Revenue (further divided)
    a. Medical Cannabis
    b. Adult Rec Use
    c. Wholesale

    1. For CC Pharma Germany Previously quarter over quarter sales grew from 88Mil to 99Mil approximately. Management said nothing to discourage an assumption of further growth.
    Lets assume this grows less this time and ends at $105Mil.

    2. a. Medical Cannabis quarter over quarter went from $8.66 Mil to $8.44 Mil. Management explained that the flat to slightly down revenue was due to prescription extensions issues due ti Covid. However, at the end of the quarter Government provided for automatic prescription extensions. So this quarter it should not be an issue. However, I do not see much growth here because there is some movement from medical to recreational anyway. So let’s assume we get $9Mil revenue from medical conservatively.

    b. Adult rec revenue grew quarter over quarter by 27% from $45Mil to $57Mil. These are rounded figures. This is the section that APHA should be judged by. This is where Canadian market grew 16.8% for our comparable quarters but APHA grew 27%.
    We now only know that June 2020 Canada sales were up to $201Mil compared to March 2020 of $181Mil. That is 11% growth nationwide. April and May 2020 in Canada were $178Mil and $186Mil. These are rounded numbers. Can Canada show July and August numbers at over $200Mil each??? I think it can. We will know July numbers next Monday, so 5 days away. I know it is a very imperfect comparison but we know Illinois numbers for both July and August and they were stellar. June was $45Mil if I recall and July and August were $61Mil and $64Mil record shattering numbers. I do not expect Canada to make this type jump but I can see it being an average of $205Mil per month for July and August. We’ll know more Monday.
    If we can go up by 15% quarter over quarter (so less than 27% for previous q over q growth) we could record $65Mil in revenue there.

    c. Wholesale.
    We went down quarter over quarter from $11Mil to $0.37Mil. So from a lot to hardly anything. Management did imply this would improve but that wholesale is not their primary business and that these sales are opportunistic. I will just assume that wholesale will be $0.00. If they sell anything wholesale, then good but again this is not APHA business focus.

    So:
    $105Mil plus $9Mil plus $65Mil for a total of $179Mil CAD.

    I find this a fairly conservative estimate.
    Anything from $175Mil to $180Mil would exceed the market estimate of $154Mil to $162Mil.

    If we do hit my estimate I do expect a modest rise in stock price. Maybe to close to $6
    Meeting analyst estimates will see us likely hugging low $5s at best.

    Anything over $190Mil and we are going to break out.
  • C
    Cori
    “Aphria is killing it — the company is absolutely smoking it,” said Craig Wiggins, a cannabis industry analyst with The Cannalysts Inc.
    DISTROSCALE
    A Seattle-based cannabis data company, Headset, has Aphria in top spot in Ontario in a number of the big retail sales categories, including vapes, flower and pre-rolled joints. As of Wednesday, in fact, Aphria’s pre-rolled brands occupied all top five spots in Ontario, as well as seven in the top 10.
    In Alberta, Aphria had the top-selling brands in both the flower and vape categories, including the top three in the latter, according to Headset, which focuses on the growing American cannabis retail market but also tracks point-of-sale transactions in several Canadian provinces.

    “Collectively, we’re No. 1 across Canada — it’s a pretty compelling story,” Tamara Macgregor, Aphria’s chief corporate affairs officer, told the Star. This is from the article, just a bit
  • G
    Garv
    https://www.instagram.com/p/CFPshg-H7wp/?igshid=1lnmea2wex0li
    Keep an eye on Aphrias instagram. They will be answering some of the most asked questions about the company.
  • M
    Michael
    I own 250 Aphria shares. How many shares do you own? Are you excited to be an Aphria share holder?
  • B
    Brandon
    Apria is a new industry guys relax.
    It had a rough start with all the legislation and legal issues it's a smoking business guys!!!
    a lot of people smoke everyday it's like a religion to some people this company is literally going to go up it's not only going to go up in price but up in smoke literally in a good way as people smoke more and more and more trust me I know I used to be a black market dealer for most my life and I've lost all my shares I gave up because the Ontario cannabis has beat me so I bought in to the stocks with all my money I made before the government started selling it.
    And trust me it's actually a lot easier to make money this way a lot easier and you don't have Uncle Sam the tax collector looking at you.
    It's a no-brainer it's going to be like the tobacco industry back in the day the tobacco industry even had some disruptions when it was starting up but look at it if you invested money back then you would have been a very smart and rich man.
    Bullish
  • J
    John
    Aphria will be the Amazon of pot stocks. Wait and see or buy now and get rich! 20 years and everyone will say.. Only if I bought way back when... IMHO!
  • O
    Olavi
    It will be the same boring day as days during this week... and it is good. Now i go to start heating my sauna and relax. Enjoy your trade.
  • Q
    QCSMB
    15.2% MOM increase in Retail Sales Stats Can (total 231M)
    ON 23.5% MOM increase to 60M
    AB 10.9% to 52M
    QC 9.8% to 44M
  • J
    Jon
    Ok enough with the “Better Cannabis Stock” articles. It’s always the same conclusion: no matter who Aphria gets compared to, Aphria always comes out on top. But our share price is one of the worst in the industry if compared using price / book value ratios. I wish someone would investigate why and how Aphria stock is being held down. Sick of this oxymoronic state of affairs.
  • O
    Olavi
    Just finished talking over the phone with my boss. Now we have right to use 80M#$%$ to buy Ahpa shares. ?