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Antero Resources Corporation (AR)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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11.47+0.46 (+4.18%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT

11.23 -0.24 (-2.09%)
Pre-Market: 4:47AM EDT

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  • E
    Eric
    The CB continues to haunt us.. thanks Paul! On May 10, 2021, Antero Resources Corporation (the “Company”) priced a registered direct offering (the “Share Offering”) of an aggregate of approximately 11.6 million
    shares (the “Shares”) of its common stock, par value $0.01 per share, at a price of $11.01 per share to a limited number of holders (the “Holders”) of its 4.25% Convertible
    Senior Notes due 2026 (the “Convertible Notes”). The Company plans to use the proceeds from the Share Offering and approximately $26 million of borrowings under the
    Company’s revolving credit facility to repurchase from such Holders approximately $55.9 million aggregate principal amount of its Convertible Notes in a privately negotiated
    transaction. The Share Offering is expected to close on May 13, 2021, subject to customary closing conditions.
  • C
    Chris
    From Hellenic Shipping News yesterday:

    "Asian LNG prices soar to nearly 4-month high on firm demand
    in General Energy News 5/10/21

    Asian spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose to a nearly four-month high this week as cargoes were pulled into Europe amid firm restocking demand and for power generation demand in summer, trade sources said on Friday.

    The average LNG price for June delivery into Northeast Asia LNG-AS was estimated at about $9.65 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up 80 cents from the previous week, they said.

    The price for a cargo delivered in July was estimated at about $9.75 per mmBtu, they added.

    Firm demand from Europe and China as buyers replenished diminished gas inventory was supporting prices, traders said.

    China’s April LNG imports rose about 11% in April from the previous month to 6.48 million tonnes, ship tracking data from Refinitiv Eikon showed."
  • A
    Anonymous
    Happy for all the long term holders here that are selling for huge profits. Even though I didn’t get in as low and for as much as many of you, I’m still up a lot. Thanks for posting great info and advice, which helped me maintain my conviction on this AR story! I owe many of you a lot for that.

    I too plan to sell in tranches, but further up. I believe we are less than midway into this story. It’s amazing how the story changed in the past 6 months. This has mostly been done on the back of NGLs and not nat gas.
    Who would have thought that?

    However, it’s looking like nat gas supplies are going to finally be short this year with < 3400 now expected in late October. This doesn’t even assume a hot summer. Add that to Asia trying to re-stock from winter and Europe supplies barely increasing, LNG will be full throttle all year as Asia and Europe bid it up.

    AR also mentioned a concern over whether propane supplies this winter will be adequate, so NGLs may have further to go in price.

    Fcf very easily could be $800 million plus this year implying total debt will be around $2 billion.

    We all see the commodity crunch coming up, the final blow will be when oil jumps. $$$ will flow into these stocks and will overshoot any values astute investors have mentioned here and that will be the time to finish selling. We aren’t even close to euphoria, simply getting back to the proper valuation right now.

    I’ll wait for that, but in the meantime congrats everyone and thanks again!
    Bullish
  • A
    Anonymous
    Very positive day today. In the midst of a nearly 500 pt decline in the Dow, AR was up 4% on above average volume. Onwards and upwards from here…
    Bullish
  • C
    Chris
    Fellow AR investors, things look great with natural gas near $3. Better yet.. consider that in Sept 2004 natural gas was at $5.15 but by the end of the next year it was up to $13.05? Or in Feb '99 natural gas went from $1.77 to $8.90 by the end of the following year? Natural gas is a finite resource. The easiest is drilled for first. As an inelastic commodity, the growing demand through liquified natural gas exporting capacity additions, new export pipelines to Mexico, continuous development of new natural gas fired electric generating plants all over the world, Amazon and other companies adopting it for delivery truck fuel, and natural gas being the cheapest fuel stock from which to produce Hydrogen, things could get a lot more exciting and financially rewarding. A word of caution though that I look at this as a long term trend. The short term, I have no clue.

    Disclaimer: I am long HGTXU, GURE, SWN and AR all with natural gas reserves. I may increase or decrease my positions at any time. This is not investment advice. Investors should do their own due diligence and consult their advisors. I make plenty of errors in investing.
    Bullish
  • D
    DocBrownbear
    I promise to not sell covered calls even remotely close to share price going forward. I might lose thes 5000 shares but these 19000 are for me forever (or if it hits $17) haha
    Neutral
  • J
    Joe
    What do you all think will happen as a result of the added 11 million shares to the float. Those note holders will most likely sell those right away. If they felt that the stock was going to keep running up they would have just stayed in the convertible. It’s not a huge amount of shares but interested in what everyone thinks.
  • E
    Eric
    Not a surprise...NGLS on AR's website has a composite price of 38.71 this week. Even though they hedged some...still printing money.
  • T
    Tom
    I sold a huge chunk when we got back to 9.60 last week assuming a market selloff. I didn't think AR would buck that trend. Kicking myself a bit, but thankfully made a little of that up in Uranium trades in the past week.
    That being said, the market is not looking good. Sometimes the baby gets thrown out with the bath water. We have really moved up with the Russell since November. It is showing a lot of weakness.
    One strategy like some did today is to sell your share amounts and buy 2022 or 2023 options for not near as much capital as you have tied up in the open shares. Just my opinion. This is a great board. I still have 6500 shares.
  • g
    george
    EQT is UP another 2% after buying Alta at huge premium, the market does not seem to think it overpaid.
    With AR operating in the same basin, a pps of $14 is more than justified.
  • T
    Titties Titos and Tannerite
    Broad selloff in the market today. Some of it looks like a bounce off support.
    AR is looking strong above $11. Nice
  • 3
    3800ft
    Sold an ungodly amt at 11.29 a few min ago for an ungodly profit. Still holding an almost equal amt in another account. I’m not very much of a trader but if it were to pull back into the mid-10’s or so I might roll all of those proceeds back into it. It was like having a conversation with the devil to get myself to pull the trigger. I need a beer Natty..... 😅
    Bullish
  • N
    Natty Gas Lite
    Back in the day I used to give updates on bond pricing and outstanding amounts... Since that is no longer important, I think the most important number to focus on is NG pricing in 2022 2023. Today 5-8-21 NG prices for May 2022 is $2.56 and May 2023 is $2.40.
  • A
    Anonymous
    EQT just acquired Marcellus player Alta Resources for $2.9 Billion, $1 Billion in cash & $1.925 Billion in stock. EQT expects this to add $300-400 million in annual fcf. Expected to add 1BCF/d in dry gas.
  • J
    Joe
    If you start to compare the market caps of the peers it’s clear we are still trading at about a 60 percent discount. That disconnect happened 3 years ago and then got worst a year ago when we were in a pickle on debt maturing. As we grew production 3 years ago we never got the market cap boost. If you look at EQT and factor in that when they issue those 100m shares they will have a market cap of 8b. We however because of our heavy liquids position will be pretty close to them in revenue. They will have double our debt but they will have much higher ebitda. That may or may not be true as we can’t get a fair ebitda or free cash flow out of Paul because he wants to hedge as the lowest price he can hedge. I would argue we could do 3.5b in free cash flow to EQT’s 5b in that time. We also have the net debt of 1.2b if you add in AM stake and then less than 1b year end. So if EQt values out at 8b AND Paul refrains from further hedging I think our proper market cap is 6b. That is 19.80 a share just to catch up to peers.
  • J
    Joe
    As I have said before. The CB will cost us 1b to borrow 288m for 2 years or less. Which is why I guess we trade at a 60 percent discount to peers. The market never can tell when Paul will do his next amazingly ignorant move. Like hedging 2022 gas at 2.50 that will also cost us half a billion in lost revenue or the takeaway deals. EQT issues shares for an acquisition and we issue shares to payoff the very animals that have been manipulating out stock the past 9 months. That should have been paid in all cash but Paul can’t bear to explain paying down 55.9 million in debt at a price of 153 million.
  • A
    Anonymous
    EQT offering is $500 mil 2026 @ 3.125% and $500 mil 2031 @ 3.625%. That tells you how much the debt market has healed for these nat gas e&ps. Their deal for Alta looks much better now.
  • D
    DocBrownbear
    Well losing 6000 of my sweet shares on May 21st due to the greed of $500 on premium. Learned my lesson. But with an average of $1.50 I can’t be upset. Still got 18k shares running
  • k
    ktbricks56
    seeing lots of news pieces on buybacks in the energy area. Of course never by AR or even AM these days. Debt over shareholders... maybe the BOD should hear from investors.
  • T
    Titties Titos and Tannerite
    I nailed some of the August $10 calls for $9/sh.
    (11.1 - 2.1 = 9).
    11% return by expecting the shares called away.