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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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31.64+1.33 (+4.39%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
32.00 +0.36 (+1.14%)
After hours: 07:11PM EDT
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  • E
    Evolving123
    We have pre-clinical data to be reported on RAGE and Muc5 this week. Also, CA has another fireside presentation scheduled for this Tuesday, May 17th.
  • T
    Tad
    from madhu/gs report: We have analyzed ARWR share value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Our DCF analysis assumes a 13% WACC and 2% terminal growth rate, with $6.17 for ARO-AAT in AAT PiZZ liver disease (prior $6.21, $26.34 for JNJ-3989 in HBV (prior $26.50), $12.82 for ARO-APOC3 in FCS and SHTG (prior $12.90), $18.51 for ARO-ANG3 in mixed dyslipidemia (prior $18.62), $8.36 for olpasiran in CVD (prior $8.42), $12.01 for ARO-HSD in NASH ($12.10), plus $5.78 in cash. Our 2Q22 model updates, including moving the DCF forward three months and adjusting statements for 2Q22 numbers, have resulted in 3Q22/FY22 changes to revenue estimates from $23.8M/$298.9M to $23.8M/$427.0M and EPS from ($0.70)/($0.93) to ($0.67)/($0.05). Our resulting DCF value is $90, which is also our 12-month price target. Our 13% WACC is consistent with the 9%-18% discount rate broadly applied across Goldman Sachs’ biotechnology research coverage for companies in later stages of clinical development. Our 2% terminal growth rate is consistent with the -10%-+5% terminal growth rate applied across Goldman Sachs’ biotechnology research coverage.

    yes, 90 sound just about right....with value drivers to take the sp over 90 in the next six months.
  • A
    Anonymous
    Congressman Fred Upton in his weekly letter...
    On Wednesday, the Energy Subcommittee, of which I am top Republican, held a six-bill markup where I discussed the need to move ARPA-H and Cures 2.0 along to the House Floor for a vote. As you have heard me say many times, this bill would establish an entity not unlike DARPA that would focus on very risky, but game-changing health research. Like DARPA, this entity would be focused on producing research on things that may be too uncertain for the private sector and would move at a faster pace than our current federal bureaucracy. Its successes would be absolutely groundbreaking. DARPA sprung inventions like GPS, Siri and the internet!
  • T
    Tad
    from stocktwits: ARWR Notifications May 13, 2022 Analyst Mayank Mamtani from B.Riley Financial reiterated a buy rating on Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals. May 11, 2022 Analyst Edward Tenthoff from Piper Sandler maintained a buy rating on Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals. TheFly> May 11, 2022 Analyst Keay Nakae from Chardan Capital reiterated a buy rating on Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals. May 11, 2022 Analyst Joel Beatty from Robert W. Baird upgraded their rating on Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals to buy. TheFly> May 11, 2022 Analyst Luca Issi from RBC Capital maintained a buy rating on Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals.
  • E
    Evolving123
    From BOA presentation today. Two new things from CA:
    1. Expects to initiate a Phase 3 trial for APOC in 2023 for SHGT indication (trigs > 500) which targets patient population of about 3 million;
    2. Surmised that accelerated approval for ARO AAT in Phase 3 could possibly be positive biopsy data at an interim readout which IMO sounds like 6 months.
  • S
    SpideySense
    Don’t know about everyone else but after this past week and the missed sleep and “fire in the belly” moments I needed to end it today with a long 5 mile walk followed by a cold stiff drink after. So here’s a toast (Codigo 1530 Tequila and Diet Coke on ice) to all my fellow ARWR investors that are living through the long term buy and hold crucible right along with me. GLTAL’s
  • Z
    ZAGLAND
    Hello Arrowheads: I have a story for you about a very lucky guy. This lucky guy lives in Zagland and a few years back after consistently playing the pick 5 lottery in washington state he wins and buys a house across from my bro in law. Just this week he ventures across the street to show my brother in law another winning ticket from the pick 5 lottery. After taxes, he pockets about $320,000. He says he plays consistently and will play a series of numbers. So, like ARWR, to play the game you must stay consistent in your belief that the science and the sick will cash in on their dreams in life. As for my lucky girl, Ava Grace, she recently had a VNS placed at Seattle Childrens Hospital to help control the seizures associated with her cerebral palsy. Through an incision in her neck they place a wire that attaches to the Vagas nerve and the goal is to lessen the number of seizures and to hopefully lessen the need for multiple medications which affect the liver. It is lucky Papa's like Zagland that from a distance receive the benefits of years of schooling and efforts of neurologists and the entire medical world. I personally thank all these wonderful brainiacs whose parents must be proud of their once little souls who grew into deserving lucky guys and gals.
    Love and Peace Zagland
    Go AVA Go Common Sense
  • P
    Pitstainer2
    Getting AAT, HBV, ANG3, APOC3, LPa, and HSD at this price is an incredible value which doesn’t account for upside in other items in the pipeline.
  • H
    Holden
    I haven't posted here in a while and I don't plan to do it any more but for the first time in....ever...I believe they will sell this company. They have played around in the sandbox enough. They are going to drive a cardio drug from the clinic into the commercial process and sell everything. They have partnered/shut down or have left open for some sort of nebulous future partnership...cancer, covid, muscle, CNS, gout, ocular and NASH/NAFLD which leaves only lung and cardio (and C3 which will be partnered after p1/2a). Chris can see he's almost 60 years old (or will be after his "consulting agreement" ends) after almost 20 years in nano medicine. No more spark. No more arrogance. No more extrahepatic is the monster future. Its cardio metabolic and lung. Hence the refocus on long term tox depth as opposed to whipping together some long term tox animal studies and fly into the clinic. They need super solid LTGLPTOX data to bolster the lung franchise after the ENAC choke. They have two cardio orphans that MAY be worth a lot IF they can get them through the FDA review process and into a commercial process. They are 3-4 years away from a lung drug IF EVER. APOC3 and ANG3 are the best shots they have to commercialize a drug that they control. All the rest is noise. They have two orphans that have a CHANCE at commercialization. If they can get one of these o commercialization then they have a shot at a sale at a price in excess of what ALNY would get for a takeout premium to its current mkt cap. So if ALNY sold today, roughly $15Bn + say 40% to 60% takeout premium = roughly $22Bn for ALNY. ARWR has a more valuable pipeline but bigger markets closer to real markets so a bigger takeout premium. Question is, how much credit would a prospective buyer give to ARWR for a pipeline on the come. Final price is simply a function of what the board rolls over for. No real science although I am sure Goldman will have a wonderful list of comps that lead to a price that works for the buyer (read...results in a large success fee).

    So what happens to the new facility with all the wonderful pictures with all the nice politicians and shovels and stuff??? Sorry Charlie. A few $million of early construction contract termination fees and its bye bye Madison.

    It's been real.

    Cheers
  • A
    A3V4F
    Front page of Barrons today 5/14/2022
    "How to Avoid the Biotech Bear Market: Get Some Products Approved"
    Somebody let CA know.
    Bullish
  • L
    Lion
    I’ve gone back and read the transcript of the cc and CA still seemed confident in the pipeline albeit not as boastful. I agree with Holden that the no check big enough seems to be off the table but a potential buyout won’t happen until approval of APOC3 for FCS. I posted my scenario 2 days ago and I think I’ll be right on. The beating the XBI has taken is unprecedented and has effected our stock price, no doubt. Anything positive from JNJ regarding HBV will certainly reverse our ties with the XBI. So we wait as follows in my opinion:
    APOC3 phase3

    TAK-999
    ANG3
    Olpasiran
    3989

    Moving 1 or more of the last 4 into phase 3 will certainly have a positive effect on our stock price, And there are still some wildcards with lung and C3.

    Yes I should have sold some at 90, 80, 70, 60 and even 50 but I didn’t. My bad!
    I guess I’ll hold another 2 years to see how this plays out.
  • Z
    ZAGLAND
    Dear Arrowheads: on LUCKY GUYs recommendation this morning I was able to check into the local ZAGLAND psych ward and while waiting for Dr Frankenstein I wanted to give you the link to this afternoons conference call with Mr 2022 Chris Azalone and Bank of America. This type of interview was what my Dr has prescribed for clearer sanity. Everything is full steam ahead at ARWR.
    https://bofa.veracast.com/webcasts/bofa/hc2022/id5q8e2U.cfm
    Go AVA
  • M
    Max
    M&A is going on STRONG!!! Big Pharma with a ton of CASH is going shopping!!!! They don't want to be FOMO!!!
    GLTA!!!
    "Pfizer's $11.6 billion Biohaven buy could spark more biotech deals....."
    Bullish
  • V
    VR
    Imho,
    Down to earth and keep on working. Liver is excellent!
    ANG3 and APOC3 are huge indications.
    AAT revenue(even 50%) will beat the Alnylam’s ultra orphans, and Alnylam currently at 15b MC.
    JNJ is still guiding HBV/HDV filing by 2025.
    HSD is cherry on top.
    So by 2025, SP 150-200$ based on cardiometabolic and 200-300$ with HBV.
    In the current environment, concentrate mostly on the liver and commercialization. The lung would be great possible development but don’t overhype it for now. All imho.
    All liver drugs’ safety and efficacy are outstanding for now so no doubts they will be on the market.
  • T
    Tad
    In a report released today, Keay Nakae from Chardan Capital reiterated a Buy rating on Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR – Research Report), with a price target of $80.00. The company’s shares closed last Tuesday at $34.29, close to its 52-week low of $32.24.
  • B
    Boru
    This is all you need to know.

    "We believe sustainable growth requires a diversified portfolio of candidates across the therapeutic areas, disease prevalence, and patient population size and across stages of development. So it's critical that we both advance our later-stage programs and also constantly expand our early-stage pipeline. We must also remember that Arrowhead is really good and moving rapidly from idea to the clinic. We likely will not have the bandwidth to commercialize everything we produce. And we certainly do not intend to tap the brakes on early development. As such, some of those programs will be partnered to A, put them in the hands of companies that will move aggressively to get them to the patients who need them, and B, provide capital for us to commercialize our wholly-owned assets.

    Developing important new medicines is an expensive business. And we have the luxury of not being solely dependent upon the capital markets to fund this. We expect this year and every year for this for the foreseeable future, to bring in significant capital from new and existing partnerships. I expect Arrowhead to commercialize a variety of important medicines and a targeted partnership strategy helps provide the necessary capital for this while also providing potentially substantial long-term economics."
    Bullish
  • D
    Drop
    So sad. I need to sell some shares to acquire a piece of property. I'll wait until Tuesday though to see if we're acquired tomorrow.
  • S
    SpideySense
    From today’s cc CA says it all when it comes to if you should consider to continue to invest in ARWR:

    - Does the company have multiple potential drugs?
    - Are those potential drugs built on a platform with known safety and activity 
parameters?
    - Are those drugs addressing real unmet medical needs in a unique way?
    - Does the company have sufficient capital and access to capital?
    - Does the company have a track record of execution?
    - Does the company have the ability and commitment to continued pipeline 
growth?
    - Is the company focused on long-term growth and getting drugs to patients?

    These may seem simple and straight-forward, but precious few companies ARWR’s size can answer all these questions in the affirmative. CA GLTAL's
    Bullish
  • T
    Tad
    Baird analyst Joel Beatty upgrades Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals from Neutral to Outperform and lowers the price target from $71 to $60.
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