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Aspen Group, Inc. (ASPU)

NasdaqGM - NasdaqGM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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0.3690-0.0502 (-11.98%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
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  • d
    dan
    So where is the new bottom?
  • G
    GoldRoyalty
    Unsurprisingly, this was a disastrous quarter. And cutting costs won't offset the decline in students nor the lack of cash flow due to the unsustainable growth in accounts receivable. Frankly, the bad debt expense looks ridiculously low. And students who don't pass the NCLEX (the problem in AZ) are exactly the students who don't pay.

    This business model has never been capable of long term success. I don't know why Leon Cooperman ever invested in this. But his presence is why the stock went up. It was never due to the company making money or generating free cash flow.

    This company is a dead man stumbling.
  • A
    Ak
    The drop is related to poor exam scores at Phoenix. Aspen has spent HEAVILY to build out Pre-Licensure business. AZ was the first site and the most profitable piece of their ENTIRE business. Unfortunately, the low test scores is evidence of low teaching quality or admitting low quality students. Both are bad. First, maybe the high marketing ROI is all smoke and mirrors. If you admit students that can’t get in elsewhere bc they don’t meet test scores, you will look like a marketing genius (those students have nowhere else to go). Second, low quality education means that the margins forecasted will have to come down as improvements have to be made, better teachers, more tools for students, tech (all costs). So these negatives apply to the entire pre-licensure biz..if margins and marketing efficiency have to come down at one site, they must at all sites (and this last Q Aspen did NOT publish their marketing efficiency ratio). Lastly and most importantly, IF ASPU doesn’t improve test scores to a min of 80% by end of Q1 2022, the low scores will have reached the 1yr mark and the AZ Board of Nursing can censure Aspen, and begin a process where their license would be stripped if scores are not increased during the remediation period (which is a MAXIMUM of 18 months). This is an existential risk for the company. So, if you look at the entire picture, Aspen was once priced as a proven business model but now has COMPLETELY become an UNPROVED biz model. There is very little reason to buy ASPU prior to AZ publishing the exam pass rates at the end of Q1. If scores stay low and Aspen runs out of cash, we can see massive dilution due to low share price or a sale of the business at these levels.
    Neutral
  • n
    noah
    Plan to increase EBITDA +137% at midpoint and revenue to grow 27%, but yet stock is down….
  • E
    Evan
    Impressive quarter! "Revenue accelerated to 49% growth, while marketing expenses declined by 11% year-over-year, driving a gross margin improvement of 1,300 basis points or 63%" Anybody else long here with me?
    Bullish
  • A
    Ak
    Short sellers are trying to create panic. I saw this once before on a biotech stock where there is a dump at end of day to create a new low for the next trading day. In any case, ASPU is an incredible business that just made $1.8 million in net income from its AZ campus alone in a single quarter. Essentially paid for the entire cost of establishing the campuses in a single quarter. The payback period is swift, that is what investors are not appreciating.
    Bullish
  • n
    noah
    Stock has fallen significantly for reasons I’m struggling to find... I have kept buying in the way down. The stock currently traded at the lowest EV/Sales in the past 5 years which is just below 1.75x now. This is while revenue is projected to grow >30% over the next few years at least, I think longer. I don’t know when it will turn around, but the stock is a bargain now.
  • B
    Biblioguy
    The continued drop in ASPU’s stock price baffles me. I wish I had some cash to buy more shares now. Hopefully the second quarter results in early December will boost the stock price.
  • n
    noah
    The way this thing trades makes no sense. But if you’re in it, I think you have to hold for ~5yrs. The macro outlook and company strategy are setting this company up to be a big player in the future.
  • Z
    Zach
    I'm in high school and play a stock market game and I put bought 3500 shares of this earlier today so I'm glad its earnings report is looking good
  • A
    Ak
    This is a high margin, fast growing business and market cap is near total revenue backlog. Investors are getting future business earnings essentially for free.
  • B
    Biblioguy
    Not sure who is selling ASPU stock, but they sure are short-term investors! Very frustrating. I’m excited by the moves ASPU Is making, and in another year I think they’ll be showing nice growth.
  • B
    Biblioguy
    An article about Aspen University's issues in Arizona. Note that at the end it states "On Feb. 24, AU leaders are scheduled to appear before the Arizona Private Postsecondary Education Board, which licenses and regulates more than 200 postsecondary educational institutions. The board is also investigating AU as a whole."

    https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/aspen-university-investigation-students-vent-frustration-amid-nursing-board-probe-into-private-college
  • E
    Ever_Learning
    Going down and down. Very confusing: a fast growing company with recent insider buying in the $5-6 range is suddenly hitting a 5-year-low in the $3.00-$3.20 area on an above-average volume. Some bad news must be coming and it has leaked to those with early access to such info?
  • H
    Harvey
    Education Stocks: They are all out of favor! Strayer (oops, Strategic -STRA) is down 5 weeks in a row to $75. It has a p/e of 16, a yield over 3%, no debt and over $5 in cash. Analyst estimates run from $80 to $90. Jeff Ubben of Inclkusibe Capital has taken an activist position which is now at 6% of the company after his last purchase of over 100,000 shares at $88 -95. Adtalem at $34 trades at a a p/e of 12. This was a deVaulx favorite.Barings has an estimate of $50. Perdoceo (FWIW, my current favorite) at $11.66 is down 6 weeks in a row with a p/e of 7.4. It has no debt and $5.86 in cash. They have beaten estimates 15 quarters in a row. Estimates run to $20. Why is education in the dog house? What would turn it around? Will value win in the long term? The country certainly needs to better educate the population.
    Bullish
  • R
    Raj
    WoW!! this is awesome. I have no idea what material announcement means but I'm guessing its good news. Thank you to Leon Cooperman for allowing me decide to purchase this stock back when it was 25 cents in 11/14. He had purchased a big chunk at the time. Already pulled off my original investment + profits and still holding a remainder small chunk.
  • k
    kevin
    this is gonna fly. mark my words. it’s been a long time coming and the market cap can easily double from here. they are firing away on all cylinders. this is one to hold for all of 2020. figure it a New Years gift of your in now.
    Bullish
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