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Audacy, Inc. (AUD)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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0.3447-0.0353 (-9.29%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
0.3619 +0.02 (+4.99%)
After hours: 06:02PM EDT
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  • J
    Johnny
    It took a little over a week but the tradition continues. The stock always goes down after one of the Fields buys stock. This time-honored tradition (and trend) has been occurring since the Senior Field bought around $10. We should note that the Senior Field has not purchased in quite a while. Our guess is that the Wells Fargo prediction stopped him. We agree with WF.
  • T
    Tony
    About due for some good news ...
  • J
    Johnny
    The algorithms have calculated the price of the equity when the unsecured bonds are trading at 35 cents on the dollar. Actually, the algorithms are stating that the equity is an option with a 1 year expiration date.
  • J
    Johnny
    We never bought the storyline that they were focused on deleveraging.
  • C
    Chris S
    So torn on this stock…. No more acquisitions, election ad spending, more commuters…. Want to load the boat but burned so many times… buying at 7, 3, 1.50 etc…. Ugg
    Bullish
  • J
    Johnny
    [*We found this on Stocktwits and, as far as we can tell, we can attribute it to Stockilluminati.*]

    "Again, assuming any recession that we face is not severe and that the recovery commences in the second half of 2023, we believe we ought to be able to refinance our $767 million of outstanding first-lien debt well before this debt matures in about two years."
    So the company is banking on being able to roll that first-lien debt and hoping to take care of that prior to 2024. It would be good news if they could accomplish that; however, we do wonder what the spread would be as well as the corresponding increase in interest payments.
    While all of that is good, what we found troubling was that Audacy has spent less time, and resources for that matter, addressing its capital structure over the last few years and has fallen behind certain names in the industry. The debt is a problem and, in my view, the company is really dropping the ball by not addressing that issue right now. The company's CBSR 6.5 05/01/27 bonds are trading just over $0.25 on the dollar right now (and the 2029 maturity is trading at just over $0.24 on the dollar); for those keeping track that is a 48.44% yield. Rich Schmaeling stated that, "at the moment, we're not focused on or interested in using cash to buyback our bonds." If management truly believes that it will be able to refinance the company's first-lien loans before maturity in 2024, and its business runs at 30% margins like the rest of the industry, then the management should finally address Audacy's capital structure and begin buying back its debt which is trading at distressed levels. Using $25 million in cash, Audacy could repurchase about $100 million (face value) of its bonds, or nearly 22% of the outstanding bonds in that issuance (the bonds that mature in 2027), and save $6.5 million per year in interest expense. That would certainly show debt investors that the company is serious about addressing its leverage, probably help stabilize the bonds, greatly reduce leverage by using less cash to retire debt at a huge discount, and increase earnings moving forward due to lower interest costs.

    [Our guess is the the CEO & CFO want to use cash on the BS to buy more digital assets. Please do, wizards of capital allocation.]
  • J
    Johnny
    How do you make a company with a market cap of $1.5 billion go to a market cap of $55 million?
  • J
    Johnny
    We went against Cramer and WS. We won. WINNING!!!
  • J
    Johnny
    $50 million market cap. Junior rules.
  • J
    Johnny
    Review past lives of CMLS & IHRT. Overlay current trajectory of AUD.
  • J
    Johnny
    So, let’s see if we have this right. The great capital allocator, Littlefield, purchased 100,000 AUD shares in May at $1.63 for a total of $163,000. On Friday, 9/16/22 he purchased 50,000 AUD shares around $.37 for a total purchase amount of $18,945. He probably grosses that in total compensation every 2 days. Why such a minuscule amount Friday relative to the May purchase? Perhaps Littlefield believes the WF and Johnny pt and is just trying to keep his bona fides with the BOD. STAY SHORT.
  • J
    Johnny
    The vision was a mirage. The debt is real.
  • J
    Johnny
    AUD, and formerly ETM, always goes up the day after Littlefield or Oldfield buys stock. It always resumes the downward trajectory on day 2. Always. STAY SHORT. Wells Fargo is bang on right. So is Johnny.
  • J
    Johnny
    Oldfield has stopped buying. We know why. That is funny #$%$
  • J
    Johnny
    I have been told that I will be nominated to the ‘SHORTS HALL OF FAME’ later this year.
  • J
    Johnny
    Bonds don’t lie!
  • J
    Johnny
    I want to apologize for not posting recently. I had to get my son settled in at University. A couple of housecleaning items. The short here continues to be supported by the fact that there has been zero insider buying. Not one member of the BOD has purchased stock. None by Schmaeling. Fields? Nope. Insiders sell for many reasons. Insiders buy for only one reason. We find it interesting that a former Wells Fargo high yield bond analyst interviews Schmaeling on June 21 and then Wells Fargo analyst Cahill reduced his pt for AUD to $0 on July 8. The pivotal yield curve remains inverted. Production numbers are falling. The FED is not finished. The recession is just getting started. Terrestrial radio gets hit hard in a recession. We don’t believe Terrestrial radio gets its typical “political” this cycle. Mr. Schmaeling must be expecting a severe recession because he said he was not interested in buying AUD bonds at prices in the $60s (day of interview). A few days ago the AUD bonds were in the 30s.
  • j
    joseph
    Fighting the short battle like a champ!
    Bullish
  • D
    DR.DD
    Someone either covered their short or went long. Anyone know something? Big volume. So cheap
  • J
    Johnny
    I get messages asking me why I have not covered since the sp met my objective of $.55. Well, $.55 was the short term objective and our final objective matches the WF target price. Besides, the recession has not started in earnest. It will start soon and it is going to be a beast.
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