|Day's Range||0.72 - 0.725|
|52 Week Range||0.7204 - 0.8136|
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar advanced on Wednesday after hitting another 13-month high in the previous session as safe-haven demand increased amid lingering concerns over the Turkish lira crisis.
The Australian dollar continues to look soft overall, as we have a light of moving pieces out there that can affect global trade. By global trade, you should think China, and that of course is with the Australian dollar is so highly leveraged to, the Chinese economy.
Inflation numbers out of the UK will need to jump to hit pause on the Pound’s demise, while U.S retail sales could influence a resurgent Dollar.
The U.S. dollar was stronger against other currencies on Tuesday, as political tensions eased and the Turkish lira recovered. The Turkish lira rallied on Tuesday, breaking a 5-day losing streak after the country's central bank pledged to provide liquidity in response to a meltdown that has unsettled global markets. Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak is expected to hold a conference call with investors from the U.S., Europe and the Middle East on Thursday, his first since assuming the post almost two months ago.
Traders looking for increased volatility during the Asian trading hours should be looking for the best pairs and strategies to maximize their profit. In this article, we will learn the most basic things a trader should know before start trading the Asian forex markets.
The pair continued to suffer in the Monday’s session initially lower at the open but reversed some of its momenta during the American session. The Euro had lost a significant part of its value in the last two trading sessions due to fears of contagion on European Banks from the economic crisis in Turkey. The negative sentiment prevailed in the market throughout the Monday’s session as the market is very concerned about the entire Turkey situation.
Since today’s session begins with the AUD/USD in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom, the key level to watch today will be yesterday’s close at .7272. We’re looking at three possible scenarios: Rally, Break or Closing Price Reversal Bottom.
The Aussie dollar has recovered a bit after an initial move lower due to a “risk off” trade. I think at this point, one thing you can count on is a lot of volatility, and with the Aussie being at such a major levels, this will be ground zero for a lot of concerns when it comes to trade war fears and of course risk in general.
Based on the price action the last five weeks, the direction of the AUD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of downtrending Gann angles at .7284 and .7277.
The Turkish Lira is on the slide again as the Asian markets respond to Friday’s late moves, risk appetite on the slide and the Yen and USD up early.
The table has been set for further weakness in the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. However, short-term technical factors could at times trigger a few short-covering rallies due to oversold conditions. With the central bank activity out of the way, traders are going to focus on appetite for risk due to the political uncertainty in Turkey. Prices could plunge further if the situation in Turkey raises contagion fears in the Euro Zone.
The New Zealand Dollar closed sharply lower against the U.S. Dollar last week after the Reserve Bank unexpectedly committed to keep interest rates at record lows through to 2020 on disappointing economic activity. The Reserve Bank of Australia wasn’t as dovish as the RBNZ, nonetheless, the Australian Dollar weakened as the central bank showed no intention of raising rates over the near future. The Dollar/Yen was under pressure last week on trade tensions and on revelations the Bank of Japan is under pressure to move away from its accommodative policy. Geopolitical tensions in Turkey drove the Lira sharply lower, causing investors to dump higher-yielding currencies like the Euro, Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Money then flowed into the safe-haven U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen.
On Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index spiked to its highest level since May 17, 2017 after the Euro plunged against the greenback to its lowest level in more than a year as a steep drop in the Turkish Lira sparked a massive flight-to-safety exodus into the dollar.
The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the week but found enough resistance to roll over again and test support yet again and the 0.73 level. The market has been very noisy based upon geopolitical concerns, and of course the trade war.
The Australian dollar fell rather hard during the day on Friday, as the US dollar continues to pick up a bit due to contagion fears in Europe and its exposure to Turkey. Overall, we are testing a major area of support though, so this could end up being an opportunity longer term.
The U.S. dollar was stronger against other currencies Friday, rising near a 14-month high as political tensions pulled the euro and Turkish lira lower. The Turkish lira fell to an all-time low against the dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would double tariffs on steel and aluminum from Turkey. The two counties have been in a diplomatic spat over the detention of an American pastor in Turkey.
The Aussie and Kiwi plunged after a report said European Central Bank officials are growing concerned about the exposure of Euro Zone banks to Turkey’s banking sector. These elevated tensions are bad news for growth prospects, commodity markets and risk appetites throughout the global marketplace. The RBA confirmed it has downgraded its 2018 inflation forecast, after flagging the change in Tuesday’s rate decision. Additionally, its longer-term outlook for inflation was little-changed. The central bank now expects core inflationary pressure to remain low through the end of 2020. The latest set of projections confirmed that the RBA still looks set to keep interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future.
Political turmoil continued to pull the Turkish lira down on Friday, as the euro was also lower amid trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan brushed off concerns on Thursday, saying it was just a campaign against Turkey. Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak is expected to reveal plans for Turkey’s economy on Friday, but concern over Erdogan’s authoritarianism and the Turkish economy have weighed on investors.
The 1.15 level is the important and psychological support level for the market and a break below this will be extremely negative and could go as low as 1.13 level. A 110.50 level underneath continues to offer support to the market.
The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during trading on Thursday but gave back the gains and felt towards the 0.74 level during American trading. You can see clearly that there was a surge from just below this level, so it’s likely that this is a short-term pullback more than anything else.
Based on yesterday’s close at .7374 and the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at .7392. Now that the AUD/USD has taken out the previous day’s low, a move back over the previous close at .7374 will put it in a position to post a reversal bottom. If this occurs then look for a potential rally into the series of 50% levels at .7392, .7397 and .7407.
It’s a big day on the data front, with the GBP, the USD and the Loonie in focus, the Pound in dire need of some positive numbers to ease the pain.
Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.9 percent in April-June, bouncing back from a contraction in the previous quarter, government data showed on Friday, in a sign its recovery momentum remained intact.
Investing.com - The dollar gained ground against a currency basket on Thursday, while Russia’s rouble tumbled on sanctions fears and the New Zealand dollar hit two year lows on a dovish sounding central bank statement.