|Day's Range||0.723 - 0.73|
|52 Week Range||0.7022 - 0.8136|
Investing.com - The dollar was flat while the Aussie slipped on Tuesday. Comments by New York Fed President John Williams received some focus as he said the Federal Reserve “will be likely raising interest rates somewhat.”
Based on the early trade, the direction of the AUD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at .7307. We could see below average volume today because it is a U.S. holiday-shortened week. Several of the major players may decide to sit this one out. Furthermore, the RBA minutes are coming out early Tuesday and no one really wants to step in front of this news.
The Euro continued to struggle around the 1.14 region on the Friday’s session, with a back and forth momentum. The region above the 1.14 level has become significantly resistive and all the negative headlines related to Brexit and Fed raising interest rates will keep the market under pressure. There is still a significant amount of bearish sentiment present around the market and if it breaks through the 1.13 level, then it is likely to reach down to the 1.11 level.
The Aussie and Kiwi strengthened last week because traders perceived the events as a bit dovish, encouraging the need for traders to aggressively adjust short positions. The CPI report, for example, suggested inflation is not overheating and may even be close to slowing down because of the plunge in crude oil and gasoline prices. The Fed comments also suggest a softer tone may be developing at the central bank. These factors could combine to convince the Fed to slow down the pace of rate hikes in 2019.
The combination of the tame inflation report, comments from Fed Chair Powell on cooling global demand and the dovish comments from Fed Vice Chair Clarida stating the Fed is getting closer to neutral, are all signs the Fed may slow its pace of rate hikes and this should be bearish for the U.S. Dollar.
Based on last week’s close at .7332, the direction of the AUD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at .7307. The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. The trend turned up last week on a move through .7314. The next main top target is .7484. The trend will change to down on a trade through .7020.
The Australian dollar pulled back a bit during the week, breaking down towards the 0.7150 level. We bounced from there to break above the 0.73 level during Friday trading, but there is a lot of bearish pressure just above.
The Australian dollar has initially fallen during the trading session on Friday but turned around to show a bit of resiliency. However, the trade war continues to weigh upon the Australian dollar in general, and I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon.
The dollar fell on Friday after Richard Clarida, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that interest rates were near neutral, but indicated that a December rate hike is still possible. Clarida told CNBC on Friday that the Fed hasn’t raised rates too far or fast but that it’s too early to know if they should increase rates too far to hold back growth. The 2.5% to 3.5% range is considered a neutral level that doesn’t stimulate or hinder the economy, he said.
Investing.com - Sterling rallied on Friday, despite concerns over Brexit and the resignation of key officials in Prime Minister Theresa May’s government.GBP/USD rose 0.34% to 1.2818 as of 5:37 AM ET (10:37 GMT), after slumping to 1.2739 on Thursday after Brexit minister Dominic Raab resigned.Raad said he could not support the prime minister’s support terms of the the draft.Meanwhile at least 16 members of the Conservative Party have called for a vote of no confidence in May, increasing the chance of the country leaving the European Union in March without a deal. ...
The pair initially rallied during the Thursday’s session but found enough resistance around the 1.1350 level to roll back and break below the 1.13 level. The market is thrown off the track by recent Brexit headlines, Italian debt crisis situation and Fed raising the interest rates. If the market breaks below the 1.12 level, then it could break further possibly towards the 1.10 level. The 1.1350 is massively resistive, that extends up to the 1.14 level. …Read MoreGBP/USD
Based on the price action the last six weeks, the direction of the AUD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main retracement levels at .7252 to .7307.
With economic data on the lighter side, we can expect geo-politics to continue to take center stage, the Pound in desperate need of good news.
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar was higher on Thursday as jobless claims data remained in line with a strong economy, supporting a Federal Reserve rate increase.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.32% to 96.97 as of 10:40 AM ET (15:40 GMT).The number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. rose by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 from the previous week’s total of 214,000. The numbers give support to the Federal Reserve gradually increasing interest rates. ...
The Australian dollar rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday and early hours as the Australian economy added more jobs than anticipated. However, there are bigger issues out there and quite frankly the market seems to be looking past that.
The pair continued to witness extreme volatility, initially pulling back a bit in the Wednesday’s session but then turned around to break above the 1.13 level, showing resiliency around the major levels. The market has not fully recovered from the bearish trend, and short-term rallies will offer a great selling opportunity. The 1.1350 level above is extremely resistive and will be difficult for the market to break above. …Read MoreGBP/USD
The Aussie Dollar is primarily being helped by the news that traders are now pricing in about a 40-percent chance of a rate hike in August next year, up from 25-percent before the release of the employment data.
Investing.com - The British Pound rose on Thursday following reports that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May secured support from her Cabinet for a draft Brexit deal.
Based on the current price at .7273, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the support cluster at .7252. This is a combination of a downtrending Gann angle and the major 50% level at .7252.
Australian Dollar traders are bracing for the release of the Employment Change report at 0030 GMT. It is expected to show the economy added 19.9K jobs in October. The Unemployment Rate is expected to inch higher to 5.1%.
Investing.com - The dollar pared back earlier gains on Wednesday after inflation data supported the Federal Reserve increasing rates at a gradual pace.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.27% to 96.88 as of 11:15 AM ET (16:15 GMT).Data on Wednesday showed that the annual core consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.1%, which was less than expected.Core prices are viewed by the Federal Reserve as a better gauge of longer-term inflationary pressure because they exclude the volatile food and energy categories. ...
The Australian dollar fell a bit during the trading session on Wednesday but found buyers underneath to turn around and reach towards the 0.7250 level yet again.
While pullbacks from 0.7235-40 indicate the AUDUSD’s dip to re-test fortnight old ascending TL, at 0.7180 now, it’s further declines are less likely as not only upward slanting support-line but the 0.7165-60 area also stands ready to challenge the sellers. As a result, chances of the pair’s U-turn to 0.7265 on the break of 0.7240 are much brighter while 0.7300-0.7305 could confine the quote’s upside then after. If at all the pair rises past-0.7305, the 61.8% FE level of 0.7340 may flash on the chart. On the contrary, pair’s slide beneath 0.7160 can recall the 0. ...
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD should continue to be underpinned as long as investors remain optimistic over the developments over US-China trade relations. Technical factors could slow down the rally because both Forex pairs are nearing potential resistance areas. A risk-off scenario because of heightened stock market volatility, or turmoil in Europe is likely to drive investors into the safe-haven U.S. Dollar, which could put pressure on the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD.