|Day's Range||0.688 - 0.688|
|52 Week Range||0.6679 - 0.7393|
It’s a big week ahead for the markets. The FED, the BoE and Brexit are in focus, with stats and chatter on trade also needing some attention.
During the previous week, we had a very strong candle stick for the weekly close, and then continue the upward momentum during the week over the last five sessions but have stalled a bit. This makes sense, because we aren’t quite sure what to make of the US/China trade situation yet.
Based on the early price action and the current price at .6869, the direction of the AUD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .6880 and the downtrending Gann angle at .6882.
Chinese yuan gains ground, NZ and Australian dollars remain quiet. U.S. retail sales are expected to slip – will this shake up currency markets?
It’s risk-on through the Asian session as the markets respond to the ECB move. On the day ahead, the focus will be on Brexit and U.S retail sales figures.
So far this week, commodity currencies are shining as safe haven currencies are retreating on newfound optimism over US-China trade, Brexit, Hong Kong and central bank easing. But could this be sustained next week? The big focus will be on Thursday’s ECB meeting, which comes with updated staff projections and is widely expected to see the ECB introduce further easing measures.
Keep in mind that the Australian and New Zealand Dollars are being driven higher by short-covering and some aggressive counter-trend speculative buying. We could see further short-term upside action in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD until global risk aversion returns.
Based on the early price action and the current price at .6882, the direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at .6887 and the main 50% level at .6880.
Tensions between the U.S and China ease, supporting risk ahead of the heavily anticipated ECB monetary policy decision later today.
Investing.com - The Japanese yen, which is widely considered as a safe-haven currency, fell on Thursday in Asia as encouraging signs in U.S.-China trade situation improved investor sentiment.
The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but ran into quite a bit of trouble at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This is an area that previously had been support, so the fact that we would find resistance here isn’t much of a stretch.
Asian markets are growing in the hope of stimulus, while Europe and the US are waiting for signals from the central banks. China continues to struggle for economic growth, as it aims to resist the effect of trade disputes with the U.S.
The bearish tone in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD is rapidly softening because of the scheduling of the trade talks. The move has changed the timing of the next interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) by pushing them back by one month each.
The Aussie Dollar takes another hit this morning. With stats on the lighter side on the day ahead, the focus will remain on Brexit and monetary policy.
Investing.com - The Chinese yuan inched up against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday in Asia after Beijing scrapped foreign quota and allowed unfettered access to the stock markets.
The Aussie dollar tried to rally initially during the trading session on Tuesday but ended up finding a significant amount of resistance into the market. That being the case, it’s likely that we will see some pullback coming rather soon.
The current price at .6859 is slightly below the major 50% level at .6880. Yesterday’s high at .6876 also fell short of this level. Taking out .6876 then closing lower will form a closing price reversal top. This will indicate the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.
The trade balance data is further proof that China’s economy is weakening because of the U.S. tariffs. This could help limit gains in the Aussie and Kiwi on Monday. The move by the PBOC to add more stimulus is potentially supportive, but this will take time to trickle through the economy.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at .6848.
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