|Day's Range||0.741 - 0.744|
|52 Week Range||0.7313 - 0.8136|
Based on last week’s price action and the close at .7425, the direction of the AUD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a downtrending Gann angle at .7437. Keep in mind that we are looking a weekly, short-term, counter-trend moves here. The longer-term trend is down and likely remain down due to the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the RBA. If you don’t want to play a counter-trend rally then use the upside targets to initiate new short positions if tested.
This week’s price action is likely to be tied to risk appetite, trade tensions, domestic data and Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before Congress.
There were no other major releases last week so the price action in the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Japanese Yen was primarily influenced by the U.S. producer and consumer inflation data as well as the consumer confidence report. Traders reacted to these reports because they could help influence the Fed’s interest rate decisions later this year.
The Australian dollar has fallen during the week, reaching towards the 0.7350 level underneath, an area that continues to see a lot of demand. I believe that the demand goes down to the 0.73 level after that, so those who are more apt to look for value propositions, this could be your opportunity.
The Australian dollar has fallen rather hard during the opening hours of the Friday session, but I also have seen a lot of support near the 0.7350 region. This is an area that has seen a lot of demand as of late, so it will be interesting to see whether we can break down below it.
With the 0.7425 horizontal-line restricting the AUDUSD’s recent pullback, the pair is expected to re-test the 0.7360 support; though, break of 0.7360 can make the quote vulnerable enough to visit the 0.7330 and the 0.7310 rest-points. In case the pair continue declining after 0.7310, also breaks the 0.7300 round-figure, chances of its drop to 61.8% FE level of 0.7255 can’t be denied. Meanwhile, the 0.7400 may offer immediate resistance to the pair before highlighting the 0.7420 for one more time. Should buyers refrain to respect the 0.7420 barrier, then the 0.7450 and the 0. ...
The market further dipped lower during the Thursday’s session testing the 1.1650 level, an area which has been a support more than once. The reaction in the market is due to the details in the ECB meeting minutes. Going ahead, the market is likely to hold this level and will also attract buyers interest. If the market further breaks from here, then it will rapidly unwind towards the 1.16 level. …Read MoreGBP/USD
Investing.com – Dollar rose on Friday, trading near a 10-day peak after U.S. consumer prices data on Thursday showed a build-up of inflation pressure that would allow the Fed to raise rates as many as four times this year.
While risk appetite returns to the markets, the Dollar looks to have found its some upside in the early part of the day, though it could all change should sentiment towards trade tariffs take another turn.
The Aussie dollar has been a bit range bound during the day on Thursday, as we hover just below the 0.74 level. That’s an area that should be resistive, but I also see much more support underneath than the resistance above. Because of this, I think that the 0.7350 level is an area that should be paid attention to, as it has been important more than once.
Investing.com - The dollar rose to fresh six month highs against the yen on Thursday and was steady against a currency basket as solid gains in the latest U.S. inflation report reinforced expectations for two additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year.
The risk tap opened this morning, providing much needed support for the Asian equity markets and the commodity currencies, with focus now shifting to the release of the ECB policy meeting minutes and U.S inflation figures.
The market in the short term is likely to continue volatile as confusion relating to the rate hike by ECB remains. The pair had a choppy session during the yesterday’s session, initially trying to rally during the day but found enough resistance to turn around and fall towards the 1.3225 level.
Another $200 billion worth of tariffs seem to be coming down the line from the Americans, aimed at the Chinese. At this announcement, the Australian dollar gapped lower to start the day, and then reached towards support below in the form of the 0.74 region.
We could see a repeat of Wednesday’s trade if today’s U.S. consumer inflation report comes in strong enough to support the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates in September and December. A steady to stronger-than-expected report should drive Treasury yields higher, which should make the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment.
Based on the early price action on Thursday, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at .7377. Essentially, the key to the next move in the AUD/USD is trader reaction to the short-term retracement zone at .7397 to .7376. Look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over .7397 and for the downside bias to continue on a sustained move under .7376.
Based on the current price at .7395, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the day is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at .7397. Watch the price action and read the order flow at .7397 all day. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the bullish traders are stepping in to stop the price slide.
Investing.com - The dollar edged higher against a currency basket on Wednesday, but gains were capped after the U.S. said it would place tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, escalating a trade spat between Washington and Beijing.
Invesing.com – The yen climbed while the Aussie and the yuan retreated after the U.S. said it would impose tariffs on an extra $200 billion worth of Chinese imports on Tuesday.
The Euro fell hard during the Tuesday’s session as less than anticipated economic numbers came out from the European region. The British Pound has been choppy through the yesterday’s session initially falling hard, but then bounced a couple of times from there. The AUD initially fell hard during the yesterday’s session but found support around the 0.7430 level to bounce back again.
The Australian dollar initially fell during trading on Tuesday but found a significant amount of support near the 0.7430 level. We bounced to break above a couple of long waits, which is always a good sign. I think that the market is trying to continue the overall uptrend based upon this.
The AUD/USD has formed an M bearish pattern along with Reverse Bearish Divergence (RBD). The RBD is a type of divergence where price is making a double top-ish price while the oscillator is making a lower high. The AUD/USD could drop from the 0.7460-70 zone if 0.7495 isn’t broken to the upside. Targets are 0.7440 (strong level), 0.7408 and 0.7390.
Investing.com – The Chinese yuan continued to rebound from multi-month lows while the U.S. dollar remained flat in morning trade in Asia Tuesday.
Today’s early inside range indicates that the direction of the AUD/USD will likely be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s high at .7484. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher.
The Australian dollar rallied to start the week, reaching towards the 0.75 level which of course is always going to be psychologically important. Beyond that, there is structural support and resistance at that level, so I think that it’s likely that we will continue to see this area cause a bit of a reaction.