|Bid||2.89 x 36100|
|Ask||2.90 x 1300|
|Day's Range||2.87 - 2.94|
|52 Week Range||2.21 - 3.80|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||0.02 (0.68%)|
|1y Target Est||N/A|
Will Gold Be an Inflation Hedge or Tumble on the Fed's Decisions? On May 23, the Federal Reserve’s May meeting minutes gave some support to gold prices as the ten-year Treasury note (IEF) yield dropped almost 5.1 basis points to 3.0%. A surge in the interest rate was negative for precious metals, and gold rebounded from the start of the day.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) stock suffered a great deal in 2017 due to the standoff with the Greek government and some technical issues at its Turkey mines. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) fell 3.9% and 0.9%, respectively, YTD. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Yamana Gold (AUY), and IAMGOLD (IAG) returned -7.2%, -8.0%, and 3.3%, respectively.
Despite Argentine President Mauricio Macri's pro-business policies, international mining companies are still reluctant to invest in Argentina amid a lack of regulatory clarity. More than two years into Macri's term, the country's dormant gold, silver, lithium and copper reserves -- some discovered more than half a century ago -- remain mostly untapped. "Conditions in Argentina are not sufficient for a company to take on the risk of staying here 30 years," Mining Secretary Daniel Meilan told Reuters in an interview.
Despite the ongoing slump in the precious metals market, it seems that there could be hope going forward. The price targets of Wall Street analysts have portrayed some silent optimism.
It seems that the rout in precious metals has also plagued the performance of precious metal mining companies. In this article, we’ll discuss Sibanye Gold (SBGL), Gold Fields (GFI), Yamana Gold (AUY), and Pan American Silver (PAAS), which have fallen 40.9%, 15.8%, and 10.3%, respectively. PAAS has risen 12.8% on a YTD basis.
Hedge funds increased their net positions in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) during the first quarter. Gold miners haven’t kept the pace with broader equities and gold prices. In Can Gold Stocks Catch Up to Broader Equities and Gold Prices? we’ve highlighted what could help these miners catch up.
In this part of the series, we’ll look at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: Franco-Nevada (FNV), Randgold Resources (GOLD), Yamana Gold (AUY), and Pan American Silver (PAAS). For the most part, mining stocks move in tandem with gold prices. Among these four miners, Pan American Silver demonstrated the highest correlation with gold this year, while Franco-Nevada displayed the lowest correlation.
After reviving compared to their previous losses, the four precious metals are in negative territory again. The revival of the US dollar had a negative impact on precious metals and mining stocks during the past few weeks. The settling of the market’s unrest could have also caused a withdrawal of haven bids.
Gold ETF investors bought 173.4 tons of gold in 2017, which was 9% higher year-over-year. In 2018 year-to-date, the inflows in gold-backed ETFs have been strong. In times of increased volatility, investors are repositioning their portfolios to include more gold as a volatility hedge. Expectations of a global trade war triggered by President Trump’s import tariffs could lead investors to seek a haven in gold.
When analyzing precious metals and precious metal mining companies, it’s essential to analyze the relationship between precious metals. There have been considerable ups and downs in precious metals since the beginning of 2018. Year-to-date, gold has risen 1.1%, and silver has fallen 2.2%.
Its strong execution and operational performance have made it one of the best-managed gold companies, which also contributes to the significant premium to its peers. Eldorado Gold’s (EGO) and New Gold’s (NGD) forward multiples had been at significant premiums to their peers. Although Eldorado Gold has had several ongoing issues at its mines in Greece and Turkey, New Gold stock was pressured by delays and cost escalations at its Rainy River project.
The four precious metals have revived compared to their previous losses over the past five trading days. However, the revival of the US dollar has had a negative impact on precious metals and mining stocks during the past few weeks. The settling of the market’s unrest could have also caused a withdrawal of haven bids.
In this final part of the series, we’ll look at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: Randgold Resources (GOLD), Yamana Gold (AUY), Coeur Mining (CDE), and Barrick Gold (ABX). Mining stocks generally move with gold prices. Among these four miners, Yamana Gold has shown the highest correlation with gold this year, while Randgold has the lowest correlation on a year-to-date basis.
Kinross Gold (KGC) released its 1Q18 results after the market closed on May 8. The company reported EPS (earnings per share) of $0.10, which was double the consensus estimate of $0.05. Its revenue of $897 million also came in above the market’s expectation of $833 million.
IAMGOLD (IAG) reported its 1Q18 results after the market closed on May 7. IAG reported EPS (earnings per share) of $0.09, beating the consensus estimate by $0.08. Its revenues also beat the consensus estimate by $14.0 million, coming in at $314.5 million.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released US jobs data for April 2018 on May 4. The data was mixed. The US economy added fewer jobs than expected in April. While economists were expecting 192,000 payroll additions, actual additions came in at 164,000. The job gains in April came from manufacturing, healthcare, and the professional and business services sector.
Investors typically overlook cheap stocks. It’s easy to conflate the word “cheap” with the lack of value or even with underperformance. These are only investments that suckers would buy, right?
As we’ve discussed previously in this series, Newmont Mining (NEM), along with Barrick Gold (ABX) and Kinross Gold (KGC), saw its debt rise at the peak of the cycle due to expensive acquisitions. These companies are now focusing on steadily paying off their debt. Newmont has reduced its net debt by 83% since 2013. The company’s current priority is to maintain an investment-grade balance sheet and credit rating.
Newmont Mining’s (NEM) AISC (all-in sustaining costs) were $973 per ounce in 1Q18, 8.1% higher YoY (year-over-year) and 0.5% higher quarter-over-quarter. AISC were driven higher by oil prices, mill maintenance at the Boddington mine, higher stockpile and leach pad inventory adjustments, and exploration expenses. While NEM’s unit costs increased YoY, they were in line with its fiscal 2018 guidance.
Yamana Gold’s (AUY) valuation multiple has varied widely between 4.3x and 9.8x over the last five years. Valuation multiples signify what investors are willing to pay for a stock based on analyst estimates. Yamana is currently trading at a forward EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple of 5.6x. This multiple implies a discount of 13.6% to its intermediate peers (GDXJ), including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Eldorado Gold (EGO), IAMGOLD (IAG), and New Gold (NGD).